Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER OR REINCARNATED BUSH RESPONDER?

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-04-05 02:19 PM
Original message
RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER OR REINCARNATED BUSH RESPONDER?
Edited on Mon Apr-04-05 02:22 PM by TruthIsAll
http://bellaciao.org/en/article.php3?id_article=5667

SNIP
"Once again, I would remind readers of another oddity besetting these troubling exit polls: On November 2, 2004, pollsters did not restrict inquiries to the votes cast on that date. They also asked voters about the 2000 election. 43% of the respondents said they had chosen Bush on that previous occasion, while 37% reported having cast a ballot for Al Gore".

MORE...
.......................................................


Bella Ciao, you neglected to mention the most important fact of all...

The hell with the RBR!
THE 43% for Bush is IMPOSSIBLE!
THE 43% NUMBER WAS FABRICATED TO AGREE WITH THE VOTE COUNT!

43% of the 122.26 million who voted in 2004 is 52.57 million.
BUT BUSH GOT ONLY 50.456 MILLION VOTES IN 2000!
THAT'S A DIFFERENCE OF 2.11 MILLION.
THEREFORE, THE BUSH VOTE WAS INFLATED IN THE FINAL EXIT POLL BY 2.11 MILLION VOTES.

BUT WE KNOW THAT APPROXIMATELY 3.5% OF BUSH 2000 VOTERS DIED (1.77 MILLION) BEFORE ELECTION 2004.

THEREFORE, THE BUSH VOTE WAS INFLATED BY 1.77 + 2.11= 3.88 MILLION VOTES.

BUT THAT ASSUMES 100% of BUSH 2000 VOTERS CAME TO THE POLLS IN 2004.
WE KNOW THAT AT LEAST SOME STAYED HOME AND DID NOT VOTE.
HOW MANY? WHO KNOWS?

LET'S ASSUME IT'S 1% OF 50.456 MILLION = 504,560 VOTES FOR THE HELL OF IT..,

ADD THE .50 MILLION TO THE 3.88 MILLION AND THE BUSH VOTE WAS INFLATED BY 4.38 MILLION VOTES.

SO THE BUSH VOTE = 62.03 - 4.38 =57.65 MILLION
ASSUME THEY ALL WENT TO KERRY.

SO THE FINAL KERRY VOTE MUST BE:
59.03+ 4.38 = 63.41 MILLION VOTES
THAT LEAVES 1.20 MILLION FOR NADER ET AL.

NOW 63.41/122.26 = 51.86% FOR KERRY
AND 57.65/122.26 = 47.15% FOR BUSH
AND 1.20/122.26 = 0.98% FOR NADER ET AL

BUT WAIT.
WE ARE NOT DONE YET.
WANT MORE OF THIS?
HOW MANY BUSH 2000 VOTERS DECIDED TO VOTE FOR KERRY THIS TIME?

OH, FORGET IT.




Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
fooj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-04-05 02:24 PM
Response to Original message
1. I know PLENTY of people who may have voted for Shrub in 2000...
WHO ABSOLUTELY DID NOT VOTE FOR HIM IN 2004! I can give you 9 Repubs that voted for Kerry right out of the gate...


Peace!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
byronius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-04-05 02:27 PM
Response to Original message
2. My experience is similar. Moderate Repugs all went AWOL...
...except for the software that switched their vote.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
The Devils Advocate Donating Member (57 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-04-05 02:36 PM
Response to Original message
3. Thanks for the work.
I will be quoting your material frequently.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
kliljedahl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-04-05 02:37 PM
Response to Original message
4. Actual * supporter found
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-04-05 05:25 PM
Response to Original message
5. Wait shouldn't it be born again?
Let's get real here. Evangelical born-again is who it shows is voting.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-04-05 10:41 PM
Response to Original message
6. Kerry wins ALL reasonable National Vote scenarios
Edited on Mon Apr-04-05 10:42 PM by TruthIsAll
Here's another calc

Case 4: 
98.2% Kerry turnout, 
55-44% share of new voters
= 51.86% win


						KERRY NATIONAL VOTE SCENARIOS					
						New Voter Share and Gore 2000 Voter Turnout					
						(Assume 100% Turnout of Bush 2000 voters)					

	Assumed		Prelim.		Prelim.				Final		
	Turnout	Turnout	7:38pm		12:22am				2:05pm	2000 Voter Mix	
	Bush	Gore	11027		13047				13660	Bush Gore 	

		KERRY SHARE OF NEW VOTERS								
Case			59%		58%	57%	56%	55%	54%		
1	100.0%	100.0%	52.28%		52.11%	51.94%	51.77%	51.59%	51.42%	39.82%	40.25%
2	99.4%	99.4%	52.33%		52.15%	51.97%	51.80%	51.62%	51.44%	39.57%	40.00%
3	98.8%	98.8%	52.37%		52.19%	52.01%	51.83%	51.64%	51.46%	39.32%	39.75%
4	98.2%	98.2%	52.42%		52.23%	52.04%	51.86%	51.67%	51.48%	39.07%	39.50%
5	97.6%	97.6%	52.46%		52.27%	52.08%	51.89%	51.69%	51.50%	38.82%	39.25%

6	97.0%	97.0%	52.51%		52.31%	52.11%	51.92%	51.72%	51.52%	38.57%	39.00%
7	96.4%	96.4%	52.55%		52.35%	52.15%	51.95%	51.74%	51.54%	38.32%	38.75%
8	95.7%	95.8%	52.60%		52.39%	52.18%	51.98%	51.77%	51.56%	38.07%	38.50%
9	95.1%	95.2%	52.64%		52.43%	52.22%	52.01%	51.79%	51.58%	37.82%	38.25%
10	94.5%	94.6%	52.69%		52.47%	52.25%	52.04%	51.82%	51.60%	37.57%	38.00%

11	93.9%	94.0%	52.73%		52.51%	52.29%	52.07%	51.84%	51.62%	37.32%	37.75%
12	93.3%	93.4%	52.78%		52.55%	52.32%	52.10%	51.87%	51.64%	37.07%	37.50%
13	92.7%	92.8%	52.82%		52.59%	52.36%	52.13%	51.89%	51.66%	36.82%	37.25%
14	92.1%	92.2%	52.87%		52.63%	52.39%	52.16%	51.92%	51.68%	36.57%	37.00%
15	91.5%	91.6%	52.91%		52.67%	52.43%	52.19%	51.94%	51.70%	36.32%	36.75%

16	90.9%	91.0%	52.96%		52.71%	52.46%	52.22%	51.97%	51.72%	36.07%	36.50%
17	90.3%	90.4%	53.00%		52.75%	52.50%	52.25%	51.99%	51.74%	35.82%	36.25%
18	89.7%	89.8%	53.05%		52.79%	52.53%	52.28%	52.02%	51.76%	35.57%	36.00%
19	89.1%	89.2%	53.09%		52.83%	52.57%	52.31%	52.04%	51.78%	35.32%	35.75%
20	88.5%	88.6%	53.14%		52.87%	52.60%	52.34%	52.07%	51.80%	35.07%	35.50%
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-04-05 10:53 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. kick
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-05-05 12:46 PM
Response to Original message
8. ON EDIT: BUSH VOTE = BUSH 2000 VOTER TURNOUT
Edited on Tue Apr-05-05 12:48 PM by TruthIsAll
THEREFORE, THE BUSH VOTE WAS INFLATED BY 1.77 + 2.11= 3.88 MILLION VOTES

should be:

THEREFORE, THE BUSH 2000 VOTER TURNOUT IN 2004 WAS INFLATED BY AT LEAST 1.77 + 2.11= 3.88 MILLION VOTES
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-28-05 08:46 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. The Lazarus Effect...
.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
MontageOfFreedom Donating Member (633 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-28-05 09:08 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. I still don't get all of this...
I've heard that people who believe in Lazarus or link to lazarus are supposed to be from the socialist party. None of that makes any sense, I've never seen evidence of such statements.

But I've frequently seen people dismiss or ridicule Lazarus, and all sorts of controversy regarding his word. Whatever the case, the numbers tell the story and numbers are louder than any words uttered....
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ChicanoPwr Donating Member (536 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-03-05 09:41 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. What are you talking about
Can you please explain your meaning of Lazarus??? I don't get where you get this idea about people who believe in Lazarus are suppose to be socialist. The Lazarus effect comment refers to the Biblical story. Where Lazarus was raised from the grave four days after his death by Jesus.

A comment which perfectly discribes BuShits sudden vote increase. So where in the world did coming up your statement???
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Sancho Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-03-05 10:36 AM
Response to Original message
12. Of course this was possible...here's how
Republicans who voted for Bush voted often...if they went back and voted 3 or 4 times and filled out the poll more than once, then they honestly said they voted for Bush in 2000!

Maybe they were reluctant to fill out the poll for the 3rd or 4th time:

The RBRnth time.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Sun Apr 23rd 2017, 06:02 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC