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ELECTION 2004: THE COMPLETE GRAPHICAL REFERENCE

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 12:11 PM
Original message
ELECTION 2004: THE COMPLETE GRAPHICAL REFERENCE
Edited on Sun Apr-03-05 12:57 PM by TruthIsAll
NATIONAL EXIT POLL DEVIATIONS: 1988-2004
The Democrats have always lost votes from the preliminary unadjusted exit poll to the vote.

Democratic Preliminary Exit Poll Deviations from the Vote
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Republican Preliminary Exit Poll Deviations from the Vote
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Preliminary Exit Poll Deviation Trend
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BUSH MONTHLY JOB APPROVAL: FEB. 2001 TO NOV. 2004
Bush Job Approval on Election Day was 48.50%.

Image



FINAL 2004 PRE-ELECTION NATIONAL POLLS

Kerry was ahead based on the average of 9 Independent Polls
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Kerry was leading in 11 of 18 Final Independent and Corporate Polls
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PRE-ELECTION 2004 STATE POLL TREND
Kerry was gaining on Bush from his low point in mid-September

Pre-election State-weighted National Vote Trend
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Kerry Popular and Electoral Vote Forecast Trend
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Kerry was expected to win 60-75% of the Undecided Vote
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POST-ELECTION 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
Preliminary Exit Polls had Kerry the winner by 51-48%

Timeline: Kerry vs. Bush Respondents
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Kerry vs. Bush National Percentages by Category
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Timeline of Characteristic Weights
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Preliminary to Final Exit Poll
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KERRY WIN SCENARIOS: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Kerry won under all plausible scenarios of the How Voted in 2000 Demographic

120 Kerry National Exit Poll Scenarios: New 2004 and Gore 2000 Voter Turnout
Image

Kerry Margin of Victory Sensitivity Analysis
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POST-ELECTION STATE EXIT POLLS
Kerry was poised to win at least 311 Electoral Votes based on the state exit polls downloaded at 12:22am on Nov 3.

Pre-election Polls vs. Exit Polls vs. Actuals
42 out of 50 states deviated to Bush .
Image

Thousands of voting machine glitches were documented.
Exit Poll Deviations and Reported Machine Problems I
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Exit Poll Deviations and Reported Machine Problems II
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Exit Poll Deviations from Actuals
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Exit Poll Vote Deviations vs. Margin of Error
Bush deviations exceeded the Exit Poll MoE in 17 states.
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Final Pre-election vs. Exit Polls
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Exit Poll Deviations by Time Zone
All 22 states in the Eastern Time Zone deviated to Bush.
Image

Pie Chart: State Vote Deviations
NY had the greatest vote deviation to Bush.
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NC State, Governor, Presidential Races: Absentee vs. Exit Poll vs. Actual
Kerry deviations far exceeded the others, except when absentee paper ballots were used.
Image




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Botany Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 12:22 PM
Response to Original message
1. Outstanding!
Thank you!
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 01:57 PM
Response to Reply #1
7. IMORTANT NOTE: CLICK ON THE ICON IN THE LOWER RIGHT CORNER
IN ORDER TO EXPAND THE GRAPH IF NECESSARY.

SOME ARE VERY WIDE WITH A LOT OF NUMBERS AS WELL.
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Botany Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 02:29 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. Nice work!
Edited on Sun Apr-03-05 02:33 PM by Botany
Thank you again
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 02:58 PM
Response to Reply #7
26. THERE ARE MORE WHERE THESE CAME FROM..
Edited on Mon May-23-05 03:04 PM by TruthIsAll
EXIT POLL TRENDS REVERSED IN 2004. BBV?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

KERRY WON UNDER ALL PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS OF VOTER TURNOUT
This shows the logical fallacy of rBr.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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prairierose Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 12:39 PM
Response to Original message
2. Good Work as always TIA,....
Did you by any chance do any graphical work on Daschle's race? Some people understand graphical better than stats.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 01:44 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Nothing on Daschle. The NC race was the only one, based on
Edited on Sun Apr-03-05 01:58 PM by TruthIsAll
analysis presented by another DUer.

NC was a mess.
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tinrobot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 01:41 PM
Response to Original message
3. Could you put these links on a web page?
You do such great work, it would be nice if you put these links on a single web page so we could pass the URL around.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 01:46 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. You can just pass along the url to this thread.
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 01:44 PM
Response to Original message
5. Excellent! We need to get this info out to the public. n/t
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FreepFryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 01:59 PM
Response to Original message
8. Awesome compendium. I'm checking all my assumptions/talking points...
...as we speak!

Rock on TIA. You're making a huge difference.
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 09:38 PM
Response to Reply #8
16. Hey Freep Fryer! Post them in a thread after you check them!
After that media moment.. I'm sure we all want your talking points!
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ginnyinWI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 03:15 PM
Response to Original message
10. Thanks TIA
I've posted a link to this in the John Kerry Group.
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Sancho Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 03:34 PM
Response to Original message
11. Question
I was looking at the trend over the last 4 elections...is 2004 different in deviation from previous years? In what way? Does 2004 seem to be typical of poll error?

I don't doubt there was hacking of tabulators and other cheating in selected states (NY, FL, OH), but it takes ONE solid case of ONE tabulator, etc. to make the investigation inevitable. In my mind, that means we have to have the raw data to look at where and how the demographics are attributible to cheating without speculating about democrates who voted republican, etc.

I'm registered as a republican in Fl, because it's the only way in this county to affect the primaries...but I usually vote straight democratic.

To me, the easiest "investigation" is some sort of demand for the raw data.

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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 08:04 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. Those are some real extra good questions

I think the most complete way to look at it, is pick out the specific precinct models by demographic from the charts you see here...

Then go to the official EIRS homepage, and read about all the documented fraud and reports on it there.

One way to get results fast for instance, is compare everything in one of the county's EIRS say for instance Dade county in Florida. Look at it compared alongside the actual deviations and you start to notice something going on here.

"vote straight democratic."

Did you say you almost always do this? You might want to check the EIRS very carefully Sancho, because there has been documentation that shows the straight-ticket votes are mostly not even registering in around 8 states.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 09:23 PM
Response to Reply #11
15. Yes, 2004 is very different.
Edited on Sun Apr-03-05 09:27 PM by TruthIsAll
In magnitude and scope.

There have always been 1-2 million spoiled democratic ballots, which counted for a large portion of the discrepancies.

In both Clinton races, he was a clear winner in the pre-election and the exit polls, so the combination of natural/unnatural spoilage and disenfranchisement were not enough.

In 2000, it was fairly close. Although Gore won by 540,000 votes, you know he really won 1-2 million. The exit poll shows this. But Bush was able to steal Florida, which he really lost by at least 50,000 votes.

In 2004, it was NOT even close. Kerry won by 6-8 million votes, 52-47%. BBV became the ultimate in spoiled ballots - undetectable, lethal. If you can steal 2 million, you can just as easily steal 4, 6, 8 million.

So they turned a 52-47% Kerry win into 48-51%, a net 8% change. Eight percent of 122 million is almost 10 million votes.

That's BIG.

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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 03:55 PM
Response to Reply #15
28. TIA said--In 2004, it was NOT even close.
Kerry won by 6-8 million votes, 52-47%.

YOu might have heard this before--An incumbant gets his may/june approval rating in NOv.

Bush was at 44%--Sorry dont have a source just remember gloating heavily about those numbers.

Kerry should get--minus 1% for 3rd party votes 55%
Kerry -------55%
Bush --------44%
3rd party ----1%

SO yeah TIA-- I like your numbers--- 10 million votes got washed or whatever, maybe 12 million.
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ccarter84 Donating Member (412 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 07:55 PM
Response to Original message
12. Thanks TIA, Q about second link
'Republican Preliminary Exit Poll Deviations from the Vote'

From the second graph, it would seem that to the casual observer our exit polls have always overfavored dem's....

just my take
lots of work went into these, good job
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 09:07 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Not sure what you mean.
The second Repub graph is just the opposite of the Dem graph.

It shows that in EVERY election, the Repubs have gone UP from the exit poll to the vote. The DEMS have always gone DOWN.

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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 09:41 PM
Response to Reply #14
17. Hi TIA please check your inbox.. Great Work on the Graphs!
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 04:14 PM
Response to Reply #14
29. LOL--yes--must be artifact ---right? LOL or its the reluctant
non responding gas station attendant--yeah that guy
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 09:45 PM
Response to Original message
18. This right here is what made me realize it was all a sham.
"POST-ELECTION STATE EXIT POLLS
Kerry was poised to win at least 311 Electoral Votes based on the state exit polls downloaded at 12:22am on Nov 3."

Kerry had to have won no matter what, because the actual media not the corporate media reported that at after midnight all exit polls were favoring kerry.

But that was the dark hour, the dark night hour where it all changed. The exit poll database was knocked offline at this point and nobody knows how it happened or why. Mistaken glitch CNN says.

When it returned the exit poll results had switched places, they had reversed in the most cryptic way ever seen. There is no physical possible way that could have happened in every voter affiliation across the chart, unless 10 million voters automatically changed their minds voting for Bush.

Its like it defies the laws of everything we know. There is one other alternative explanation, which has a much higher chance of success. 10 million votes were purged during that time-frame, and 10 million voters had their votes not counted and those votes became mis-counted.

It would then explain why such a minority of people with fascist values could over-throw the whole government. All it took was technology in all the major precincts which was rigged, think about that one for a while.
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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-04-05 07:12 AM
Response to Original message
19. Thanks always for your hard work. It is much appreciated! n/t
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-04-05 09:56 AM
Response to Original message
20. This is great, TIA! Thanks! Would you be willing to repost your list
in this thread in plain text format with the image links in their original versions? That way, people could copy and paste and keep all the information.

Recommended
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-04-05 05:40 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. Ok, later
Edited on Mon Apr-04-05 05:43 PM by TruthIsAll
.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-04-05 09:02 PM
Response to Reply #20
23. GRAPH LINKS IN PLAIN TEXT
Edited on Mon Apr-04-05 09:09 PM by TruthIsAll
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-04-05 09:15 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. Thank you for the plain text repost, TIA n/t
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Botany Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-04-05 07:02 PM
Response to Original message
22. Kick
:kick:
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slor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-04-05 09:59 PM
Response to Original message
25. Great work! n/t
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 03:33 PM
Response to Original message
27. Awesome, TIA! Thanks for re-posting this! n/t
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vince3 Donating Member (224 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 04:33 PM
Response to Original message
30. Thanks, TIA
Great work, as always.
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