I've quantified big vote swing by county in Florida & need constructive c

[berniew1]

criticism/comments
http://www.flcv.com/fla04EAS.html
Florida vote swing due to switching, manipulation, suppression
Touch screen counties
Broward 75,000
Palm Beach 50,000
Dade 40,000
Hillsboro 65,000
Pinellas 20,000
Lake 7500
Pasco not done yet
Sarasota

Optical scan counties swing mostly manipulation & suppression
Orange 15,000
Brevard 20,000
Osceola 7500
Volusia not finalized yet
St Lucie
Martin
************
Comments desired on the extent to which my documentation supports these numbers; and any Exit Poll or other poll data relevant to these numbers desired *******

Are my numbers conservative, stretching, weakly supported, etc.
All comments welcome and helpful

(I have more counties I haven't put on web site yet)

I think Florida might be the state with the easiest case for a swing
-- other than New Mexico
and there were lots of well documented problems in Ohio as well
Ohio had so many different kinds of problems its hard to put them all together.

[LatePeriduct]

1. Wow that was quite alot.

That was a really interesting breakdown by precinct, I have a few questions.

Do you know more about the vote swing in one of the counties on this map, Dade county?

Why does it say 908 - 78,000 something roughly vote swing?

http://www.flcv.com/dadeo.html

Is there anyone who has access to the info that might break this down by related voter catergory? IE: voter ethnicity, or status to vote, voter background etc.

I wanted to ask these questions for a friend of mine and see if anything can be found out about it.

Is it possible to get that information for a county like Dade at all?

Oh and when I was reading through the reported machine problems I became amazed. Do you think it is possible that they could have pre-caged this many voters in Florida's biggest county, like Miami-Dade county and scrubbed them from the machines?

Thanks for showing that.

[Sancho]

2. Excellent, but there's more I suspect...

What's amazing to me is that the presidential vote didn't match the local concerns. First, in Pinellas Castor is very popular - so how did Bush get so many votes. More importantly, Pinellas passed a tax increase for schools by about 70%. That's something local that a hacker probably wouldn't deal with...and is completely contrary to the presidential vote and the registration! Makes no sense to me, and I was sure on election day that the touch screens were rigged.

[LatePeriduct]

3. Hmmm Ok so you're saying...

You're basically saying that, since the presidential vote doesn't match the recorded issue for that county (Pinellas?) it couldn't have been rigging by touch screens.

Is that it?

But then why according to the EIRS, does it show many many registrations and persons voting having the same malfunctions.

Or could it really have been that the precincts there were pre-caged, and like in Miami-Dade, voters who are scrubbed off by exemption don't show up in the total rolls and are almost "ghosted out" yet the issue in question still shows a summary vote percentage.

Like as in, the issue could still pass anyway, whatever it is and the undervotes for president and senator just basically get purged right out of the rolls because certain officials have already pre-set the bias in the precincts.

Well that goes along the study I know of that is being conducted right now, that my friend has uncovered evidence of, where machines are actually pre-programmed to aggregate only the particular voters who in the state's mind should be allowed in the circle.

Like a pick and choose operation, everyone can decide who really makes their vote or not and then later say "oops, you know those malfunctions!"

But hey, the EIRS has been keeping up to date on all the evidence hasn't it?

I got a question for anybody, is it possible that the voters in question could all be found narrowly along one set demographic, say like low-level poverty income? (which is normally in three different ethnic groups)

[berniew1]

4. EIRS reports point to some big categories but compiler type manipulation

would not have been seen by the voters, and is very easily done. So though the thousands of EIRS reports and reports to county SOE officies(locals in each county should get theirs from the SOE) document that there were big swings due to manipulation of registrations, absentees, provisionals, changes in location and misinformation regarding polling places, systematic dirty tricks to confuse minorities regarding correct polling place, etc.

the EIRS could not identify compiler and precinct summary information manipulation. It requires careful checking of local results on voters against official results and perhaps some surveys of voters in suspect precincts. Big manipulations were identified in some counties in Ohio in this manner.
But these are things local people have to do. I can only summarize the reports to EP(EIRS), Common Cause(even more), and local SOE offices(if someone provides them to me).

But locals should be able to look at the data and spot things that I cannot.

[berniew1]

5. The numbers come from making assumptions; one has to decide

which assumptions are supported by the documentation and evidence. The assumptions are stated. and there is documentation, evidence in the associated link to help in assessing which assumptions appear to match the evidence. But Dade county is sort of problematic, since the data used as a base from 2000 is known to be problematic. Dade (and some other counties) are known to have had some of the same types of suppression in 2000 as in 2004. Along with the misvotes and undercounts(hanging chad issue). So the actual problem may be much more than identified by my analysis method. I did a more detailed analysis of Palm Beach by precinct, and that could be done for Dade as well. But even that uses the 2000 precinct votes as a base. So has a similar problem. Actual problems likely even more than what I identify, and maybe much more.

Someone from Dade has expressed interest in doing more on Dade county. Common Cause has some volunteers that are supposedly interested, but I don't have contact with them. Though I'm a Common Cause member from another county.

[berniew1]

6. EIRS is a large sample with over 1000 reports in some counties but its

still only a sample. Most were not aware of the EP system and how to contact them, and not all who were aware would report. Also many voters are not comfortable with computers and would not know whether there was a problem when they voted, and some were in hurry after long lines and didn't do much review.

For those who used touch screens: how likely do you think people voting would be of late switches on the review screen such is documented to have been occurring on some machines?

Another issue is assessing a multiplying factor for the reported EIRS cases. Its clear that they were for a fraction(likely small) of total problem(as noted by comments from EP volunteers and poll workers interacting with the voters). But the only concrete data I have for assessing this is more detailed local monitoring results like the TrueVoteMD data in Maryland, and reports to Supervisor of Election offices which I have for a couple of counties.
The more comprehensive monitoring of TrueVoteMD for 6% of Maryland precincts found many more cases of things such as touch screen switching and other machine problems(factor of over 100) than the EIRS cases had reports for from the same areas.

[LatePeriduct]

9. You say

"Someone from Dade has expressed interest in doing more on Dade county."

Has there been any updates on this? Is there anybody working yet who might be able to identify the type of catergories these voters all fit into?

[garybeck]

7. here's an idea for you

the info is great! I'm wondering if you could select some of the most glaring anomalities and create a summary. Something that fits on to one or two pages, and could be made into a PDF. That way we can use them as flyers. Here are some examples that we currently have:

http://www.solarbus.org/election/articles/facts-ohio.pdf

http://www.solarbus.org/election/articles/facts-newmexico.pdf

If you could make abbreviated versions of your reports we can make them into fact sheets like these and we can start distributing them at the conference and other places.

[berniew1]

8. My county pages start off with summaries of the big problems; and these ar

e supported by EIRS cases.
But if I get time I could try to do that. remind me again if I don't respond soon. I have more to do than I have time.