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SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: THE KERRY NATIONAL VOTE MARGIN OF VICTORY...

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-29-05 08:35 PM
Original message
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: THE KERRY NATIONAL VOTE MARGIN OF VICTORY...
More numbers too make you ill...

Best case scenario:
Preliminary exit poll (11027)
Kerry wins new voters by 59-39%
Bush and Gore 2000 voters ALL turnout:

Kerry Margin of victory: 
7.29 million votes

Worst case scenario:
Final exit poll (13066)
Kerry wins new voters by 54-45%
100% Bush Voter turnout
88.6% Gore 2000 Voter turnout:

Kerry Margin of victory: 
870,000 votes


		KERRY NATIONAL VOTE MARGIN OF VICTORY					
For 120 New Voter and Gore 2000 Voter Turnout Scenarios					
		(Assume 100% Turnout of Bush 2000 voters)					
							
Assumed		Prel.	    Prel.	               Final
Turnout	     	7:38pm	    12:22am			2:05pm
Bush	 	11027	    13047			13660
100%

        KERRY WINNING MARGIN IN MILLIONS OF VOTES

	Turnout   KERRY SHARE OF NEW VOTERS					
Case	GORE	59%	58%	57%	56%	55%	54%

1	100%	7.29	6.86	6.44	6.02	5.59	5.17
2	99.4%	7.09	6.66	6.23	5.80	5.37	4.94
3	98.8%	6.89	6.46	6.02	5.59	5.15	4.72
4	98.2%	6.70	6.26	5.82	5.37	4.93	4.49
5	97.6%	6.50	6.06	5.61	5.16	4.71	4.26
							
6	97.0%	6.31	5.85	5.40	4.95	4.49	4.04
7	96.4%	6.11	5.65	5.19	4.73	4.27	3.81
8	95.8%	5.92	5.45	4.98	4.52	4.05	3.59
9	95.2%	5.72	5.25	4.78	4.30	3.83	3.36
10	94.6%	5.53	5.05	4.57	4.09	3.61	3.13

11	94.0%	5.33	4.85	4.36	3.88	3.39	2.91
12	93.4%	5.13	4.64	4.15	3.66	3.17	2.68
13	92.8%	4.94	4.44	3.95	3.45	2.95	2.46
14	92.2%	4.74	4.24	3.74	3.23	2.73	2.23
15	91.6%	4.55	4.04	3.53	3.02	2.51	2.00

16	91.0%	4.35	3.84	3.32	2.81	2.29	1.78
17	90.4%	4.16	3.63	3.11	2.59	2.07	1.55
18	89.8%	3.96	3.43	2.91	2.38	1.85	1.32
19	89.2%	3.76	3.23	2.70	2.16	1.63	1.10
20	88.6%	3.57	3.03	2.49	1.95	1.41	0.87

 
 
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-29-05 08:52 PM
Response to Original message
1. GRAPH: 120 winning scenarios
Edited on Tue Mar-29-05 09:01 PM by TruthIsAll
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-30-05 12:26 AM
Response to Original message
2. Now that looks good.
If only someone could seperate it all the way down to seperate party issue by ID or something.
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