I have posted on this topic frequently the last few days,
perhaps too frequently. But here's a new, confirming analysis
which proves Kerry had to have won, based on realistic
estimates of how Election 2004 voters voted in 2000.
According to the FINAL Exit poll, Bush won by 3.22 million
votes (51.11-48.48%). The critical stats: 43% of Bush 2000
voters and 37% of Gore voters returned to the polls in 2004.
We know these are IMPOSSIBLE right off the bat, since the Bush
2000 vote (50.456 million) was 41.26% of the total 122.26
million 2004 votes. AND THIS ASSUMES THAT NOT A SINGLE BUSH
2000 VOTER HAS DIED, SO THE NUMBER HAD TO BE EVEN LESS THAN
41.26%.
Yet the Final Exit Poll STILL USED THE IMPOSSIBLE 43/37%
WEIGHTS IN ORDER TO MATCH TO THE RECORDED VOTE.
VOTED IN 2000:
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17% 45% 54% 1%
Gore 37% 10% 90% 1%
Bush 43% 91% 9% 0%
Other 3% 21% 71% 3%
100% 51.11% 48.48% 0.63%
Votes 62.49 59.27
Let's determine reasonable weights, using the following facts:
1. 122.26 million voted in 2004.
2. 104.777 million voted in 2000.
3. 50.999 million (48.67%) voted for Gore in 2000.
4. 50.456 million (48.15%) voted for Bush in 2000.
5. 3.322 million (3.17%) voted for Nader et al in 2000.
6. The increase from 2000 to 2004 was 17.483 million votes.
Using a table of annual U.S. death rates (8.7 per thousand),
we can estimate that 3.5% of Election 2000 voters have died in
the last 4 years (multiply the annual death rate of 8.7 per
1000 by 4).
Applying the rate to determine how many Gore, Bush and Nader
voters have died since 2000:
Gore: .035 * 50.999 = 1.785 million
Bush: .035 * 50.456 = 1.766 million
Nader: .035* 3.22 = 0.116 million
A total of approximately 3.667 Election 2000 voters died prior
to Election Day 2004.
Therefore, there had to be 21.15 million NEW VOTERS in 2004,
since 21.15 = 17.483 (net increase) + 3.667.
Now 21.15 million is 17.3% of the total 122.26 million vote.
THIS IS EXACTLY EQUAL (AFTER ROUNDING) TO THE 17% FIGURE OF
NEW VOTERS IN THE FINAL EXIT POLL. AND WE CAN BE QUITE
CONFIDENT IT'S CORRECT, SINCE IT HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY AN
INDEPENDENT CALCULATION.
Therefore, the maximum number of 2000 voters who could have
voted in 2004 were the following:
Gore voters: 50.999-1.785 = 49.214 million =40.25% of 122.26
Bush voters: 50.456-1.766 = 48.690 million =39.82%
Nader voters: 3.322-0.116 = 3.206 million = 2.62%
Assuming all of them did vote, and adjusting the Nader
percentages to sum horizontally to 100%, the final result is:
VOTED 2000
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17.31% 45% 54% 1%
Gore 40.25% 10% 90% 0%
Bush 39.82% 91% 9% 0%
Other 2.62% 21% 71% 8%
100% 48.60% 51.02% 0.38%
Votes 59.42 62.37 .621
The bottom line:
THE ONLY WAY THAT BUSH COULD WIN THE FINAL NATIONAL EXIT POLL
REQUIRED THE USE OF IMPOSSIBLE WEIGHTINGS.
If the Bush/Gore weights are changed from an IMPOSSIBLE
43%/37% to a REASONABLE 39.82%/40.25%, THEN KERRY WON THE
ELECTION BY 3 MILLION VOTES.