that means that 35 per 1000 die over a four year period, or
3.5%.
So let's assume that approximately 3.5 million of the 100
million who voted in 2000 have died.
Assuming half of the deceased voted for Bush in 2000, then at
least 1.75 million voters could not have voted this time. We
know that 50.45 million voted for Bush in 2000.
The maximum number who could have voted for him in 2004 was
therefore
50.45 - 1.75 = 48.7 million.
And so 48.7/122.2 = 39.8% is the maximum percentage of 2004
voters who could have voted for Bush in 2000.
This assumes that not a single Bush 2000 voter:
1) sat out the election,
2) was incapacitated and unable to get to the polls.
If you believe the Final exit poll demographic that 43% of
2004 voters voted in 2000 for Bush, then you must also believe
that 52.57 million voted for Bush in 2004, since .43*122.26 =
52.57 million.
We have just shown that this is TOO HIGH BY 3.8 MILLION AT
MINIMUM, WHEN THE DEATH RATE IS CONSIDERED AND PROBABLY 2-3
MILLION MORE WHEN YOU CONSIDER THE OTHER TWO POSSIBILITIES.
THEREFORE, IT MAY VERY WELL BE THAT BUSH'S VOTE WAS 6 MILLION
TOO HIGH. REMEMBER, KERRY WON THE 13047 PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL
BY 51-48%. EVEN IN THIS POLL BUSH GOT 41%, WHICH WE HAVE JUST
SHOWN TO BE TOO HIGH AS WELL.
USING THE PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL WEIGHTS, IF 39% OF 2004 VOTERS
VOTED FOR BUSH IN 2000 AND 40% VOTED FOR GORE,
THEN KERRY WON BY 52.2% TO 45.8%,
OR 63.4-56 MILLION VOTES.
USING THE IMPOSSIBLE FINAL EXIT POLL WEIGHTS, IN WHICH 43% OF
2004 VOTERS SAID THEY VOTED FOR BUSH IN 2000 AND ONLY 37% FOR
GORE,
THEN BUSH WON BY 51.1%-48.8%,
OR 62.5-59 MILLION.
THE ACTUAL RECORDED VOTE WAS:
BUSH: 50.73%-48.4%,
OR 62.03-59.03 MILLION..
SO THE RECORDED VOTE WAS EXACTLY EQUAL TO THE FINAL EXIT POLL,
WHICH WE HAVE PROVED TO BE IMPOSSIBLE - AT LEAST FOR THIS
DEMOGRAPHIC:
HOW DID YOU VOTE IN 2000?
HERE ARE THE CALCULATIONS:
THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIMINARY 13047 WEIGHT MIX ARE:
41% BUSH AND 38% GORE
TO A MORE REASONABLE
40% GORE AND 39% BUSH
VOTED IN 2000
PRELIMINARY 13047.................FINAL 13660
VOTED Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17% 41% 57% 1% 17% 45% 54% 1%
Gore 40% 8% 91% 1% 37% 10% 90% 0%
Bush 39% 90% 9% 0% 43% 91% 9% 0%
Other 4% 13% 65% 16% 3% 21% 71% 3%
TOTAL 100% 45.8% 52.2% 1.2% 100% 51.1% 48.5% 0.3%
THE PROBABILITY OF SAMPLING 43% WHEN THE POPULATION MEAN IS
39%
DEPENDS ON THE EXIT POLL MARGIN OF ERROR.
THE MOE IS ASSUMED TO BE 1.0% FOR THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL OF
13047 RESPONDENTS, BASED ON THE MITOFSKY/EDISON NOTES AT THE
BOTTOM OF THE WP/NEP WEB SITE GRAPHIC.
FOR A 1.0% MOE, THE PROBABILITY IS 1 IN 450 TRILLION
FOR A 1.5% MOE, THE PROBABILITY IS 1 IN 11.6 MILLION
FOR A 2.0% MOE, THE PROBABILITY IS 1 IN 22.6 THOUSAND
PROBABILITY = 1 - NORMDIST(.43,.39, MOE/1.96, TRUE)
MOE PROB 1 IN
1.0% 2.2E-15 450,359,962,737,050
1.5% 8.6E-08 11,565,336
2.0% 4.4E-05 22,577