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BASED ON THE U.S. ANNUAL DEATH RATE OF 8.7 PER 1000...

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-21-05 08:35 PM
Original message
BASED ON THE U.S. ANNUAL DEATH RATE OF 8.7 PER 1000...
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 09:30 PM by TruthIsAll
that means that 35 per 1000 die over a four year period, or
3.5%.

So let's assume that approximately 3.5 million of the 100
million who voted in 2000 have died.

Assuming half of the deceased voted for Bush in 2000, then at
least 1.75 million voters could not have voted this time. We
know that 50.45 million voted for Bush in 2000.

The maximum number who could have voted for him in 2004 was
therefore
50.45 - 1.75 = 48.7 million. 

And so 48.7/122.2 = 39.8% is the maximum percentage of 2004
voters who could have voted for Bush in 2000. 

This assumes that not a single Bush 2000 voter:
1) sat out the election, 
2) was incapacitated and unable to get to the polls.

If you believe the Final exit poll demographic that 43% of
2004 voters voted in 2000 for Bush, then you must also believe
that 52.57 million voted for Bush in 2004, since .43*122.26 =
52.57 million. 

We have just shown that this is TOO HIGH BY 3.8 MILLION AT
MINIMUM, WHEN THE DEATH RATE IS CONSIDERED AND PROBABLY 2-3
MILLION MORE WHEN YOU CONSIDER THE  OTHER TWO POSSIBILITIES.

THEREFORE, IT MAY VERY WELL BE THAT BUSH'S VOTE WAS 6 MILLION
TOO HIGH. REMEMBER, KERRY WON THE 13047 PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL
BY 51-48%. EVEN IN THIS POLL BUSH GOT 41%, WHICH WE HAVE JUST
SHOWN TO BE TOO HIGH AS WELL. 

USING THE PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL WEIGHTS, IF 39% OF 2004 VOTERS
VOTED FOR BUSH IN 2000 AND 40% VOTED FOR GORE,
THEN KERRY WON BY 52.2% TO 45.8%, 
OR 63.4-56 MILLION VOTES.

USING THE IMPOSSIBLE FINAL EXIT POLL WEIGHTS, IN WHICH 43% OF
2004 VOTERS SAID THEY VOTED FOR BUSH IN 2000 AND ONLY 37% FOR
GORE, 
THEN BUSH WON BY 51.1%-48.8%, 
OR 62.5-59 MILLION.

THE ACTUAL RECORDED VOTE WAS:
BUSH: 50.73%-48.4%, 
OR 62.03-59.03 MILLION..

SO THE RECORDED VOTE WAS EXACTLY EQUAL TO THE FINAL EXIT POLL,
WHICH WE HAVE PROVED TO BE IMPOSSIBLE - AT LEAST FOR THIS
DEMOGRAPHIC: 
HOW DID YOU VOTE IN 2000?

HERE ARE THE CALCULATIONS:
THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIMINARY 13047 WEIGHT MIX ARE:
41% BUSH AND 38% GORE 
TO A MORE REASONABLE
40% GORE AND 39% BUSH


VOTED IN 2000
PRELIMINARY 13047.................FINAL 13660
VOTED Mix Bush Kerry Nader    Mix  Bush  Kerry Nader
No     17%  41%   57%   1%     17%  45%   54%   1%
Gore   40%  8%    91%   1%     37%  10%   90%   0%
Bush   39%  90%   9%    0%     43%  91%    9%   0%
Other   4%  13%   65%  16%      3%  21%   71%   3%
TOTAL 100% 45.8% 52.2% 1.2%   100% 51.1% 48.5% 0.3%


THE PROBABILITY OF SAMPLING 43% WHEN THE POPULATION MEAN IS
39% 
DEPENDS ON THE EXIT POLL MARGIN OF ERROR.

THE MOE IS ASSUMED TO BE 1.0% FOR THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL OF
13047 RESPONDENTS, BASED ON THE MITOFSKY/EDISON NOTES AT THE
BOTTOM OF THE WP/NEP WEB SITE GRAPHIC.

FOR A 1.0% MOE, THE PROBABILITY IS 1 IN 450 TRILLION
FOR A 1.5% MOE, THE PROBABILITY IS 1 IN 11.6 MILLION
FOR A 2.0% MOE, THE PROBABILITY IS 1 IN 22.6 THOUSAND

PROBABILITY = 1 - NORMDIST(.43,.39, MOE/1.96, TRUE)

MOE	PROB	     1 IN
1.0%	2.2E-15	     450,359,962,737,050
1.5%	8.6E-08	              11,565,336
2.0%	4.4E-05	                  22,577

 
 



 
 
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whistle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-21-05 08:48 PM
Response to Original message
1. KKKarl Rove said that hardly any republicans died during the....
...the four years between 2000 and 2004. So that ends that argument.

<obvious sarcasm> But I think that is the way the rupuke mind fucking works!
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Goldeneye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-21-05 08:55 PM
Response to Original message
2. TIA what is the probability
of them drawing a sample that had that many extra Bush 2000 voters?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-21-05 09:12 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. THE PROBABILITY OF SAMPLING 43% WHEN THE POPULATION IS 39%
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 09:13 PM by TruthIsAll
DEPENDS ON THE MARGIN OF ERROR.

THE MOE IS ASSUMED TO BE 1.0% FOR THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL OF
13047 RESPONDENTS, BASED ON THE MITOFSKY/EDISON NOTES AT THE
BOTTOM OF THE WP/NEP WEB SITE GRAPHIC.

FOR A 1.0% MOE, THE PROBABILITY IS 1 IN 450 TRILLION
FOR A 1.5% MOE, THE PROBABILITY IS 1 IN 11.6 MILLION
FOR A 2.0% MOE, THE PROBABILITY IS 1 IN 22.6 THOUSAND

PROBABILITY = 1 - NORMDIST(.43,.39, MOE/1.96, TRUE)

MOE	PROB	     1 IN
1.0%	2.2E-15	     450,359,962,737,050
1.5%	8.6E-08	              11,565,336
2.0%	4.4E-05	                  22,577
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Goldeneye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-21-05 09:48 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Thanks TIA.
Unlikely even at 2%.
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-22-05 03:23 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. The big question is...
If that many people who vote for Bush all the time died, how did they end up being counted in the 2004 elections? *cue X-files theme*

"There are many voters illegally datamined. However, many of these mexican identities and we could even say Saudi, some of them could not even be real, some of them could be dead, and all of them will be fed into the tabulator.

Will they just automatically be fed in? No they will be parsed in. Just like any code works at transplanting data from one location to another. Is it replacing anything? No its replacing nothing. Caged and purged voters are first taken out. Most all of them are belonging to one set group. Afterward all the other voters are just fed directly in. Evening out the totals, smoothing out the suspicion."

excerpt from rigged aggregator site. He's officially taking questions by email now and nobody else is to speak for him.
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