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THE MAGIC 613 FINAL RESPONDENTS: FROM 13047 TO 13660

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-21-05 10:08 AM
Original message
THE MAGIC 613 FINAL RESPONDENTS: FROM 13047 TO 13660
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 10:26 AM by TruthIsAll
I'm sorry for the confusion.
There is NO simple 1% adjustment factor applied to 13047
respondents.

The adjustments are the percentage change in the INDIVIDUAL
DEMOGRAPHIC ALLOCATION WEIGHTS. 

In other words, Bush's SHARE of the female vote went from 45%
to 48%.
On a weighted basis, that is equal to an additional 1.98% of
the total female vote. 

In terms of the 54% or 331 females in the 613 additional
respondents:

Bush Final Exit Poll Female Respondents
 = .54*.48*13660 = 3540
Bush Preliminary Poll Female Respondents
 = .54*.45*13047 = 3170

So Bush GAINED 370 of the additional 331 females in the 613.

Kerry LOST 43 females:
Kerry Final Exit Poll Female Respondents
 = .54*.54*13660 = 3762
Kerry Preliminary Poll Female Respondents
 = .54*.54*13047 = 3805
		

Quite a trick.


KVP = KERRY PRELIMINARY
KVF = KERRY FINAL
KChg = change in Kerry share
BVP = BUSH PRELIMINARY
BVF = BUSH FINAL
BChg = Change in Bush Share

The bottom line for each demographic containes the weighted
National percentages

	Prel.	Final		122.26	million votes										
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
GENDER	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
Male
	46%	46%	0%	47%	44%	-3%	52%	55%	3%	26.43	29.24	24.75	30.93	-1.69	1.69
Female
	54%	54%	0%	54%	51%	-3%	45%	48%	3%	35.65	29.71	33.67	31.69	-1.98	1.98
	100%	100%				-3.0%			3.0%	62.08	58.95	58.42	62.62	-3.67	3.67
										50.78%	48.22%	47.78%	51.22%	-3.00%	3.00%
															
															
EDUCATION	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
No
H.S.	4%	4%	0%	52%	50%	-2%	47%	49%	2%	2.54	2.30	2.45	2.40	-0.10	0.10
H.S.
	22%	22%	0%	51%	47%	-4%	48%	52%	4%	13.72	12.91	12.64	13.99	-1.08	1.08
College
	31%	32%	1%	47%	46%	-1%	51%	54%	3%	17.81	19.33	18.00	21.13	-0.38	1.14
ColGrad	26%	26%	0%	48%	46%	-2%	50%	52%	2%	15.26	15.89	14.62	16.53	-0.64	0.64
PostG
	17%	16%	-1%	58%	55%	-3%	40%	44%	4%	12.05	8.31	10.76	8.61	-0.62	0.83
	100%	100%				-2.40%			3.00%	61.39	58.75	58.46	62.65	-2.81	3.78
										50.21%	48.05%	47.82%	51.24%	-2.30%	3.09%
															
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
RACE AND GENDER	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
WM	36%	36%	0%	41%	37%	-4%	58%	62%	4%	18.05	25.53	16.29	27.29	-1.76	1.76
WF	41%	41%	0%	47%	44%	-3%	52%	55%	3%	23.56	26.07	22.06	27.57	-1.50	1.50
NWM	10%	10%	0%	69%	67%	-2%	28%	30%	2%	8.44	3.42	8.19	3.67	-0.24	0.24
NWF	13%	13%	0%	77%	75%	-2%	22%	24%	2%	12.24	3.50	11.92	3.81	-0.32	0.32
	100%	100%				-2.75%			2.75%	62.28	58.51	58.45	62.34	-3.83	3.83
										50.94%	47.86%	47.81%	50.99%	-3.13%	3.13%
	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
AGE	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
18-29
	17%	17%	0%	56%	54%	-2%	43%	45%	2%	11.64	8.94	11.22	9.35	-0.42	0.42
30-44
	27%	29%	2%	49%	46%	-3%	50%	53%	3%	16.17	16.51	16.31	18.79	-0.99	0.99
45-59
	30%	30%	0%	51%	48%	-3%	47%	51%	4%	18.71	17.24	17.61	18.71	-1.10	1.47
60+	26%	24%	-2%	48%	46%	-2%	51%	54%	3%	15.26	16.21	13.50	15.84	-0.64	0.95
	100%	100%				-2.5%			3.0%	61.78	58.89	58.64	62.69	-3.14	3.83
										50.53%	48.17%	47.96%	51.28%	-2.57%	3.13%
INCOME	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
0-$15K
	9%	8%	-1%	66%	63%	-3%	33%	36%	3%	7.26	3.63	6.16	3.52	-0.33	0.33
$15-30
	15%	15%	0%	59%	57%	-2%	39%	42%	3%	10.82	7.15	10.45	7.70	-0.37	0.55
$30-50
	22%	22%	0%	52%	50%	-2%	47%	49%	2%	13.99	12.64	13.45	13.18	-0.54	0.54
$50-75
	23%	23%	0%	45%	43%	-2%	53%	56%	3%	12.65	14.90	12.09	15.75	-0.56	0.84
$75-100
	13%	14%	1%	49%	45%	-4%	50%	55%	5%	7.79	7.95	7.70	9.41	-0.64	0.79
$100-150
	11%	11%	0%	45%	42%	-3%	53%	57%	4%	6.05	7.13	5.65	7.67	-0.40	0.54
$150-200
	4%	4%	0%	47%	42%	-5%	53%	58%	5%	2.30	2.59	2.05	2.84	-0.24	0.24
$200+
	3%	3%	0%	41%	35%	-6%	58%	63%	5%	1.50	2.13	1.28	2.31	-0.22	0.18
	100%	100%				-3.38%			3.75%	62.36	58.12	58.84	62.38	-3.30	4.02
										51.01%	47.54%	48.13%	51.02%	-2.70%	3.29%
IDEOLOGY	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
Liberal
	22%	21%	-1%	86%	85%	-1%	12%	13%	1%	23.13	3.23	21.82	3.34	-0.27	0.27
Moderate
	45%	45%	0%	57%	54%	-3%	41%	45%	4%	31.36	22.56	29.71	24.76	-1.65	2.20
Conservative
	33%	34%	1%	16%	15%	-1%	82%	84%	2%	6.46	33.08	6.24	34.92	-0.40	0.81
	100%	100%				-1.67%			2.33%	60.95	58.87	57.77	63.01	-2.32	3.28
										49.85%	48.15%	47.25%	51.54%	-1.90%	2.68%
RELIGION	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
Prot	53%	53%	0%	43%	40%	-3%	56%	59%	3%	27.86	36.29	25.92	38.23	-1.94	1.94
Catholic
	27%	27%	0%	50%	47%	-3%	49%	52%	3%	16.51	16.17	15.51	17.17	-0.99	0.99
Jewish	3%	3%	0%	77%	74%	-3%	23%	25%	2%	2.82	0.84	2.71	0.92	-0.11	0.07
Other
	7%	7%	0%	75%	74%	-1%	20%	23%	3%	6.42	1.71	6.33	1.97	-0.09	0.26
None
	10%	10%	0%	70%	67%	-3%	29%	31%	2%	8.56	3.55	8.19	3.79	-0.37	0.24
	100%	100%				-2.60%			2.60%	62.17	58.56	58.67	62.07	-3.50	3.51
										50.85%	47.90%	47.99%	50.77%	-2.86%	2.87%
MILITARY	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
Yes
	18%	18%	0%	43%	41%	-2%	55%	57%	2%	9.46	12.10	9.02	12.54	-0.44	0.44
No
	82%	82%	0%	53%	50%	-3%	46%	49%	3%	53.13	46.12	50.13	49.12	-3.01	3.01
	100%	100%				-2.5%			2.5%	62.60	58.22	59.15	61.67	-3.48	3.48
										51.20%	47.62%	48.38%	50.44%	-2.84%	2.84%
WHEN DECIDED	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
Today
	6%	5%	-1%	53%	52%	-1%	40%	45%	5%	3.89	2.93	3.18	2.75	-0.07	0.37
Last3Days
	3%	4%	1%	53%	55%	2%	41%	42%	1%	1.94	1.50	2.69	2.05	0.07	0.04
Last Week
	2%	2%	0%	48%	48%	0%	51%	51%	0%	1.17	1.25	1.17	1.25	0.00	0.00
Last Month
	10%	10%	0%	60%	54%	-6%	38%	44%	6%	7.34	4.65	6.60	5.38	-0.73	0.73
Before
	79%	79%	0%	50%	46%	-4%	50%	53%	3%	48.29	48.29	44.43	51.19	-3.86	2.90
	100%	100%				-1.80%			3.00%	62.63	58.62	58.07	62.62	-4.60	4.03
										51.23%	47.95%	47.50%	51.22%	-3.76%	3.30%
															
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
REGION	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
East	22%	22%	0%	58%	56%	-2%	41%	43%	2%	15.60	11.03	15.06	11.57	-0.54	0.54
Midwest	26%	26%	0%	50%	48%	-2%	49%	51%	2%	15.89	15.58	15.26	16.21	-0.64	0.64
South	31%	32%	1%	44%	42%	-2%	54%	58%	4%	16.68	20.47	16.43	22.69	-0.76	1.52
West	21%	20%	-1%	53%	50%	-3%	45%	49%	4%	13.61	11.55	12.23	11.98	-0.77	1.03
	100%	100%				-1.98%			3.00%	61.78	58.62	58.98	62.45	-2.70	3.72
										50.53%	47.95%	48.24%	51.08%	-2.21%	3.04%
															
PARTY ID	(Rep 36% in 11027)														
Democrat
	38%	37%	-1%	90%	89%	-1%	9%	11%	2%	41.81	4.18	40.26	4.98	-0.46	0.93
Republican
	35%	37%	2%	7%	6%	-1%	92%	93%	1%	3.00	39.37	2.71	42.07	-0.43	0.43
Indep	27%	26%	-1%	52%	49%	-3%	45%	48%	3%	17.17	14.85	15.58	15.26	-0.99	0.99
	100%	100%				-1.67%			2.00%	61.97	58.40	58.55	62.30	-1.88	2.35
										50.69%	47.77%	47.89%	50.96%	-1.54%	1.92%
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
VOTED IN 2000	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
No	17%	17%	0%	57%	54%	-3%	41%	45%	4%	11.85	8.52	11.22	9.35	-0.62	0.83
Gore	38%	37%	-1%	91%	90%	-1%	8%	10%	2%	42.28	3.72	40.71	4.52	-0.46	0.93
Bush	41%	43%	2%	9%	9%	0%	90%	91%	1%	4.51	45.11	4.73	47.84	0.00	0.50
Other	4%	3%	-1%	65%	71%	6%	13%	21%	8%	3.18	0.64	2.60	0.77	0.29	0.39
	100%	100%				0.50%			3.75%	61.81	57.99	59.27	62.49	-0.79	2.65
		
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Imperialism Inc. Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-21-05 11:04 AM
Response to Original message
1. What does this ultimately show?
I've been reading the threads and I follow the math. Certain demographics were arbitrarily(?) increased by various whole number percentages. Right?

What I am wondering though is , what is this evidence of? Please don't take that in an argumentative way. I just simply am uninformed of the question being answered so to speak. In other words if this is the decisive clue in solving a mystery what is the mystery? If this is the smoking gun what was killed?

Is it that it shows that the final exit polls were weighted and not just raw numbers?

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-21-05 11:45 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. AT LEAST FOUR RED FLAGS FROM 13047 TO 13660...
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glitch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-21-05 11:52 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Now we know what specific weights (thanks to TIA) were made to adjust the
final exit polls to the election results. AFAIK Mitofsky has not justified the rationale behind his weights, which makes his final exit poll data NO check on the election results.

We will need a full peer review of his data and his methods before we can determine if Mitofsky's weights and work have any merit at all as a check on the system.

At this point the conclusion that the final exit poll numbers are rigged to match the election results, which are also rigged, is the most valid. IMO.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-21-05 12:00 PM
Response to Original message
4. KERRY'S FEMALE SHARE IN THE FINAL IS 51%, DOWN FROM 54%
51% IS THE KERRY SHARE, NOT 54% AS SHOWN IN THE ORIGINAL POST.
IT WAS A TRANSCRIPTION TYPO . THE CALCULATION WAS CORRECT.

Kerry LOST 43 females from the prelim. to final:

Final Exit Poll Female Respondents
= .54*.54*13660 = 3762
Preliminary Poll Female Respondents
= .54*.51*13047 = 3805

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