YOU WON'T BELIEVE HOW THE FINAL NEP WAS "WEIGHTED": A SIMPLE EXPLANATION

[TruthIsAll]

IT'S SO SIMPLE WE DON'T EVEN HAVE TO KISS.
THIS ONE SHOULD FINALLY DO IT.
THE ULTIMATE SMOKER.
SO SIMPLE AND CLEAN AND OBVIOUS EVEN THE NAYSAYERS WILL AGREE.

The formula is:
FINAL Exit Poll Bush Adjustment Factor = 13047 * X

13047 is the number of preliminary exit poll respondents.
X is one of the following adjustments, depending on the demographic:
1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%

1% of 13047 = 130.47 = 130 rounded
2% of 13047 = 260.94 = 261 rounded
3% of 13047 = 391.41 = 391 rounded
4% of 13047 = 521.88 = 522 rounded
5% of 13047 = 652.35 = 652 rounded

These were the votes added to the Bush category totals in going from 13047 to 13660 respondents in the Final Exit Poll.

JUST A SIMPLE MATHEMATICAL RELATIONSHIP, APPLIED TO THE PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL RESULTS.

IS THIS THE WEIGHTING WE HAVE BEEN WONDERING ABOUT THESE PAST 4 MONTHS? THIS IS IT?

PEGGY LEE SAID IT BEST: "IS THAT ALL THERE IS?"

ALL THOSE PROBABILITY THREADS, ALL THOSE MOE ARGUMENTS, ALL THE TALK ABOUT THE RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER, ALL THE TALK ABOUT SUFFICIENT SAMPLE SIZE, ALL THE TALK ABOUT A CLUSTER EFFECT, ALL THE TALK ABOUT THE ACCURACY OF EXIT POLLS, ALL THE TALK ABOUT THE INACCURACY OF EXIT POLLS..... AND NOW IT COMES TO THIS?

A SIMPLE FUDGE.

GO HERE FOR ALL THE NUMBERS:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x346613

[MsMagnificent]

1. Very Interesting

So they used a calculator instead of eyeballing and raising the numbers arbitrarily? How anal.

The numbers are way beyond statistical chance. These numbers need to be gotten to a top, credible Mathematical/Statistical professor post haste!

Beautiful find! Now let's see if anyone will listen to or PRINT it?
This is finally REAL, SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE!

[TruthIsAll]

2. This is so obvious and so simple to explain, they MUST listen..

Even the Hear No Evil, See No Evil Democrats will have to take notice.

[LatePeriduct]

10. From site on aggregator

"Too Many Connections. As someone who now has over 171 professional "connections" in myLinkedIn Profile, 198 "friends" on Orkut, many more non-intersecting friends and acquaintances on Tribe.Net, LiveJournal, and othersocial networking services, as well as a plethora of correspondentsthat I only interact with via email, I am trying reconcile amismatch between my connections and my own Dunbar Number.How do I maintain meaningful relationships with over 300 people?

Venture Capitalist Jeff Nolan relates similar concerns:"It strikes me that the social networking theory holds that the more volume you have, the bigger your network will become by introducing degrees of separation roughly along the lines of Metcalfe's Law. I disagree, human networks do not grow in value by multiplying, but rather by reduction."

http://rigged-aggregators.blogspot.com

[TruthIsAll]

29. AS I POINTED OUT IN ANOTHER POST, THESE NUMBERS ARE WRONG.

There is no simple 1% adjustment factor.

I'm sorry for the confusion.
Errors are made in the spreadsheet modeling process.
The key is to catch and fix them before posting.
I missed this one.

I have made errors before and will again.
But I always fix them.

[TruthIsAll]

31. DISREGARD THE 1% PREMISE OF THIS POST; HERE'S A LINK

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x346801

[Goldeneye]

3. Wow, that is an amazing catch TIA.

This needs to go to Arnebeck and Conyers.

[Jeebo]

4. Somebody explain this to me and assume I'm stupid...

I'm not stupid, but there's some background information here that isn't explained, and apparently it is being assumed that everybody who reads this already knows that background information. For example, which state is this 13047/13660 number for? I get it (at least I think I do, even though it isn't explained either) that in between the 13047 number of exit poll respondents and the final 13660 respondents there was a HUGE and virtually statistically impossible shift in Bush's favor that suggests that somebody rigged the results to make it LOOK like the "will of the people" was on Bush's side when it actually was clearly on Kerry's side. In other words, those last 613 respondents skewed the results of the first 13,047 more than they possibly could. Is that right? But which state or area do these 13047/13660 numbers come from? And whichever state or area it is, what about the REST of the country? And whatever the results from the rest of the country, are you saying that the 13047/13660 ratio is consistent for the rest of the country? And that the shift or skew represented by those last respondents ... let me do the math, 613 of 13660 is about four and a half percent ... the skew represented by those final four and a half percent of respondents is consistent across the country? And that whoever used that last four and a half percent to rig the results of the first ninety-five and a half percent did so by adding one percent or two percent or three, four or five percent consistently of the ... oh god, now I'm getting hopelessly confused again. Maybe I AM stupid. Please explain, I don't understand.

Ron

ON EDIT: You said "13047 is the number of preliminary exit poll respondents." And later: "These were the votes added to the Bush category totals in going from 13047 to 13660 respondents in the Final Exit Poll." Are you saying that they polled 13,047 voters and didn't like the results and then went BACK and polled 613 more voters so they could use those 613 to skew the results? Or are you saying that they just arbitrarily ADDED 613 phantom voters and used them to skew the results? In other words, what do "preliminary exit poll respondents" and "13660 respondents in the Final Exit Poll" mean? Please define these terms. I don't understand. In other words, assume I'm stupid. Because I'm beginning to think I am. Because everybody else posting here seems to understand this except for me.

[TruthIsAll]

5. Come on, you must be kidding. You have it exactly right.

What are you confused about?
Whether this is a state or national poll?

This is the NATIONAL EXIT POLL, a separate sub-sample taken simultaneousl with of all the state exit polls.

The earlier, preliminary poll of 13047, got out by accident.
Someone downloaded it from the Washington Post/NEP web site before they could get rid of it. The media doesn't want you to know about this poll. But it's still available as a GIF file.

An even earlier stage of the exit poll (7:38pm, 11027 respondents) is still posted on CNN and is almost exactly equivalent to the 13047 poll.

Th final exit poll supposedly proves that Bush won.
It's posted on the CNN site.

It might get you thinking that maybe the wrong guy is occupying the Oval Office.

[Jeebo]

8. I know the wrong guy occupies the Oval Office...

What I wasn't clear about was where all these numbers came from or what they meant. I should have gotten it that this was a national exit poll. I should have gotten that from the "NEP" in the subject line of your original post. But still, 13,660 respondents seem like not enough for a NATIONAL poll. What is that, one respondent in every ten precincts? How many precincts are there in the whole country? Surely many more than 13,660.

As for who SHOULD be in the Oval Office now, it shouldn't be John Kerry either, because if we had HONEST elections in this country, Al Gore and Joe Lieberman would be beginning their second term now.

And the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center would be still standing, and 4,500 Americans and 100,000+ Iraqis would still be alive, and yes, Saddam would still be in power but completely contained, and there would still be a budget SURPLUS, and the economy would still be booming, and Social Security and Medicaid and other components of the social safety net would still be safe from the corporate kleptocrats, and I could go on and on but I have to go to work right NOW...

Ron

[TruthIsAll]

9. Jeebo, you are right on target, as I said earlier.

Hope to hear from you with additional posts on the fraud.

13,000 is plenty for a national poll.
Pre-election polls typically sample 1000-1500, for an MoE of 2.5-3.5%.

A 10,000 randomly-selected sample gives a 1.0% MOE.
For 13,047, it's 0.875%.

[passy]

6. Well done!

[LatePeriduct]

7. He is right.

I think I know how they came up with the whole number theory formula too.

Statisticians that work with the government who created the aggregators. They came up with these exact theories and how networks of people could be "arranged"

This is quite serious. Every single Board of Elections database has probably engaged in caging of voters.

[AuntiBush]

19. This is Un-Real!

Stupid here, as well, but it all makes insane sense!

So... my question I ask repeatedly is "WTF can anyone do about it?"

"How do we prevent this from happening again?"

"How did they get away with this - can't SOMEONE step-up to a BIG plate and DO SOMETHING?"

You know. Before it's too late.

:crazy:

[LatePeriduct]

24. They explain the control code for the Maryland tabulator...

The one they impounded could have all the hard evidence because of the amount of undervotes in that state.

A tabulator would have to be tested from the three main states, starting with the one impounded. Straight ticket vote testing would need to begin immediately to find out how the bias works.

Then if it shows up positive, the control code can be used as evidence in the courtroom with Clifford Arnebeck and the caucous.

It would have to be done to several tabulators that have been impounded. The bias would be locatable instantly based on the amount of time they have gone unchecked.

Then the only possible way to force trials would be to get one congressman or woman with the guts to fillbuster congress.

[anaxarchos]

11. WTF?

So what happened to the oh so sophisticated weighting scheme?

[TruthIsAll]

35. Self delete

.

[Kip Humphrey]

12. I guess it didn't have to take smart crooks... just crooks

[dzika]

13. Returning to the scene of the crime

I don't want to jump the [smoking] gun here but I have to ask.

Can we begin to guess how they got from the 13047 exit poll to the final vote counts that were posted on the official State Government websites?

[MissWaverly]

15. here's my two cents from a mathmetical idiot

it struck me all along that the vote in Maryland was off, way off, and when I started to go look at the numbers from the local boes, I realized that for the final number to match the exit poll did not make sense because in Maryland, votes were disappearing right and left, I estimate that half the votes from my precinct alone "disappeared." Then it struck me, it's like when you were a kid and you couldn't figure out the answer and you looked in the back of the book, got the answer and worked backwards. What I'm trying to say is that the press links to the tabulators put in pre-programmed data, which correlated with the exit polls because they both came from the same pre-determined source.

[AuntiBush]

20. Scene of the crime is right!

You got that right!

[MissWaverly]

14. I believe

Thanks TIA, I stood up and bowed twice to the computer screen, it has to be some simple explanation before the people believe it happened.

Thanks

[understandinglife]

16. WHACK....and it's still rising after clearing the 450 yd mark!!! (nt)

Peace.

[Name removed]

17. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Bill Bored]

18. I think this is an interesting discovery.

Ever since I noticed the party ID change from 35 R/38 D to 37/37, I thought it was just a fudge. A percent here and a percent there, and pretty soon you're talking real numbers.

On the other hand, how else could it have been done? There are enough variables so that < 1% granularity in these changes wasn't necessary.

[MissWaverly]

22. here's what I think by no math whiz

say you worked at a huge warehouse like Sam's Club, and you were told
to expect say 2% shrinkage due to shoplifting, breakage, etc.

Say you had 4 plasma Tvs missing, well you check and saw that there were 200 in the spreadsheet so you say, okay that's what I expected, but what if there weren't 4 Tvs missing, what if there were 40 Tvs missing, then you would say, hey that's a 20% shrinkage that is 10 times what it should be, something is wrong here.

The numbers were skewed, but the ratios were skewed too so that the Kerry vote is 48% according to the exit poll and that's what we have for tabulated votes and the projected Bush vote is 51% which is what we have for tabulated votes.

[sandnsea]

21. Match them to precincts

That one where they closed it down to observers, in Ohio, it's a 2% increase IIRC. I was thinking it was the same percentage increase, and tried to match that, but it didn't work out. But rolling percentage increases, maybe that could be calculated out.

What I found weird was that the exact percentage of Dems & Reps moved into a precinct or county, yet Bush got thousands more votes based on percentages. Get what I mean?

[MissWaverly]

23. Yes, but looking at Baltimore County

blank votes for prez = 1,089
blank votes in Senate race = 7,498
blank votes in Congress race = 7,447

Baltimore County Kerry votes 51.62%
Baltimore County Bush votes 46.98%
Baltimore County Senate race Republican 35.75%
Baltimore County Congress Republican 31.44%

so not only are there a lot of blank votes, but the republican challengers did not prevail, the Bush percentage is much higher than the other republican candidates and Kerry trailed the winning democratic candidates by 12-15% in Baltimore County, across the state Kerry beat Bush by only 309,790 votes although the registered democrats who voted outnumbered the registered republicans who voted by an almost 2 to 1 margin, 1,340,778 registered democrats voted compared to 733,643 Republicans

[sandnsea]

25. No, check Republican counties

I don't know anything about Maryland so I can't comment on what happened there and I'm not really talking about voter suppression, which I think might be what you're referring to.

I'm talking about counties that were already Republican or Gore voting in 2000. If those counties picked up the same precentage for both Bush and Kerry, it ends up being a larger raw number for Bush. That did happen in some that I checked. The exact same percentage increase of Dem & Rep voters, but a huge increase in raw voters. See what I mean? It's not normal, people move to areas "like them". You just wouldn't have the exact same percentage of Dems & Reps moving to a Rep county in Alabama, see what I mean?

Using TIA's percentage calculations, you could pick up large numbers of Bush voters. I just couldn't find the same percentage when I checked various counties, but maybe they used a rolling percentage system. Eliminate votes in Dem areas, which is what I think you mean; and use some sort of machine percentage increase in Rep areas.

[Maraya1969]

26. Kick

:kick:

[Maraya1969]

27. I think the problem you are having is looking at the counties instead

of the total numbers for demographics. Once they get the total numbers needed they can spread them out all over the country in various counties.


Does this sounds right TIA?

[TruthIsAll]

28. I am not looking at counties, only the final NEP demographics.

The problem was a simple error. I referenced the wrong column in the Bush calc.

[Nothing Without Hope]

30. There it is - they were so sure they could get away with it, they didn't

even bother to use fake numbers that would look more real.

WHAT DO WE DO WITH THIS INFORMATION NOW THAT WE HAVE IT?? Have you told Berniew1? Seems to be there should be an amalgamation of the exit poll data and the on-the-ground observations of fraud into a suppression-proof report that is organized in a way that gives the bottom lines clearly and succinctly, with references to the detailed documentation. Has this been sent to Conyers, Boxer, Cobb, and Olbermann? (And those are just the first ones I've thought of.)

Recommended for Greatest, and how!

[Maraya1969]

32. Kick

:kick:

[TruthIsAll]

34. The premise is wrong; there is no simple formula related to 13047

I have already stated this at the top.

I don't want anyone to be misled here, and the post has evoked a lot of discussion.

The bottom line is that there is NO direct relationship.

Since the numbers are NG, as noted above, this thread does not deserve to be nominated as GREATEST.

But thanks anyway.

[smartvoter]

33. deleted after TIA post nt