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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-19-05 12:52 PM
Original message
FOUR VERY RED FLAGS....
Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 01:38 PM by TruthIsAll
The exit poll category weightings changed in only a few
critical categories from the Preliminary Exit poll of 13047
respondents at 12:22am on 11/3 to the Final 13660 at 2:05pm.
														
Kerry won the 13047 preliminary poll by 51-48%.
But the vote shares changed dramatically with the final 613
respondents. 
The results switched a full 180. 
Bush won the final, official poll by 51-48%.

How did it happen?														
The exit poll data changes from 13047 to 13660 are
inexplicable in a number of category weightings.
						
The Key categories which raise RED FLAGS are:														
1 - GENDER 									
2 - PARTY-ID
3 - HOW THEY VOTED IN 2000
4 - THE VOTERS WHO DID NOT VOTE IN 2000	


1 - GENDER
The 54% female/46% male split was CONSTANT from the
preliminary (13047) to the final exit poll (13660).

BUT Kerry's share of the female vote declined from 54% to 51%.

How so? 
Gore won 54% of the female vote in 2000.	


2 - PARTY-ID									
This critical statistic changed from 38 Dem/35 Rep/27 Ind from
the preliminary to 37/37/26 in the final.

How so?
In the PRIOR THREE elections, it was a CONSTANT 38/35/27.

	

3 - HOW THEY VOTED IN 2000														
From the Preliminary poll:							
The total weighted vote (for Kerry and Bush) is 122.83
million, which EXCEEDS the actual 122.26 million votes by
570,000.

How so?
For 41% of respondents to have voted for Bush in 2000, he must
have had at least 50.13 (0.41* 122.26) million votes.

That's possible, but unlikely, since he received just 50.45
million votes in 2000. And more than 300,000 must have died or
decided not to vote.														
If we consider that the Exit poll MOE is 1.0%, then perhaps
40% (or 48.90 million) may have voted for Bush in 2000. 

That's more likely. 		

So, if anything, you would expect that the 41% would have been
adjusted DOWN to at least 40% TO MATCH THE 2000 VOTE.	

BUT NO....
				
In the Final Poll:								
The Bush 2000 voter percentage INCREASED to 43%.			

For 43% of respondents to have voted for Bush in 2000, he must
have had AT LEAST 52.57 (0.43* 122.26) million votes.  

THAT IS TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE.
DEAD PEOPLE USUALLY STAY DEAD.

His 2000 vote total was only 50.45 million, a difference of
2.12 million. We KNOW that SOME of the Bush 2000 voters MUST
have died or did not vote this time.
	
From the Preliminary poll:														
For 38% of respondents to have voted for Gore in 2000, then
Gore must have had AT LEAST 46.46 (0.38 * 122.26) million
votes.
We know he did. 

His vote total was 51.0 million, a difference of 4.54 million
from the poll. So 38% is possible.	
	

From the Final Poll:
For 37% of respondents to have voted for Gore in 2000, then
Gore must have had AT LEAST 45.24 (0.37 * 122.26) million
votes.

The difference is 5.66 million. 
So 37% is possible.		

In any case, the 43-37% spread is IMPOSSIBLE.														
SO IN THE ONE AND ONLY DEMOGRAPHIC (THE 2000 VOTE) IN WHICH
THE FINAL EXIT POLL CAN BE CHECKED AGAINST AN ACTUAL HISTORIC
FACT, IT TURNS OUT TO BE ABSOLUTELY INCORRECT.
	

4- VOTERS WHO DID NOT VOTE IN 2000	
Of the 21 million (17%) new voters and those who did not vote
in 2000, most went solidly for Kerry (57-41%) in the
preliminary.
	
In the final, it was revised to 54-45%.														
But we have already seen that in this very category, the 43%
statistic for Bush 2000 voters is impossible.

So why should we believe the 3% downward revision in Kerry
share of those who did not vote in 2000?														
It is ABSOLUTELY A FACT, AND EVEN THE FINAL EXIT POLL SHOWS:
Kerry won the majority new voters.
	
So how did he lose?														
		
Here is a table which shows just how many votes were effected
by each of the category weightings and shares, for both
preliminary and final exit polls.

Kerry:
KP = Preliminary Exit Poll%, KF = Final, KChg = Change 
KVP= Preliminary Exit Poll Vote, KVF = Final Exit poll vote 
KChg = Change in votes between Preliminary and Final.

The same stats are given for Bush.

Total votes (based on the percentages * 122.26 million)  and
the weighted percentages are displayed in the last two lines
of each category.

There were 13047 respondents in the preliminary exit poll.
There were 13660 respondents (only 613 more) included in the
final  poll.

There were a total of 122.26 million votes.

					
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
GENDER	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
Male
	46%	46%	0%	47%	44%	-3%	52%	55%	3%	26.43	24.75	24.75	30.93	-1.69	1.69
Female
	54%	54%	0%	54%	51%	-3%	45%	48%	3%	35.65	33.67	33.67	31.69	-1.98	1.98
	100%	100%				-3.0%			3.0%	62.08	58.42	58.42	62.62	-3.67	3.67
										50.78%	47.78%	47.78%	51.22%	-3.00%	3.00%
															
															
EDUCATION	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
No
H.S.	4%	4%	0%	52%	50%	-2%	47%	49%	2%	2.54	2.45	2.45	2.40	-0.10	0.10
H.S.
	22%	22%	0%	51%	47%	-4%	48%	52%	4%	13.72	12.64	12.64	13.99	-1.08	1.08
College
	31%	32%	1%	47%	46%	-1%	51%	54%	3%	17.81	17.43	18.00	21.13	-0.38	1.14
ColGrad	26%	26%	0%	48%	46%	-2%	50%	52%	2%	15.26	14.62	14.62	16.53	-0.64	0.64
PostG
	17%	16%	-1%	58%	55%	-3%	40%	44%	4%	12.05	11.43	10.76	8.61	-0.62	0.83
	100%	100%				-2.40%			3.00%	61.39	58.57	58.46	62.65	-2.81	3.78
										50.21%	47.91%	47.82%	51.24%	-2.30%	3.09%
															
															
RACE AND GENDER	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
WM	36%	36%	0%	41%	37%	-4%	58%	62%	4%	18.05	16.29	16.29	27.29	-1.76	1.76
WF	41%	41%	0%	47%	44%	-3%	52%	55%	3%	23.56	22.06	22.06	27.57	-1.50	1.50
NWM	10%	10%	0%	69%	67%	-2%	28%	30%	2%	8.44	8.19	8.19	3.67	-0.24	0.24
NWF	13%	13%	0%	77%	75%	-2%	22%	24%	2%	12.24	11.92	11.92	3.81	-0.32	0.32
	100%	100%				-2.75%			2.75%	62.28	58.45	58.45	62.34	-3.83	3.83
										50.94%	47.81%	47.81%	50.99%	-3.13%	3.13%
	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
AGE	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
18-29
	17%	17%	0%	56%	54%	-2%	43%	45%	2%	11.64	11.22	11.22	9.35	-0.42	0.42
30-44
	27%	29%	2%	49%	46%	-3%	50%	53%	3%	16.17	15.18	16.31	18.79	-0.99	0.99
45-59
	30%	30%	0%	51%	48%	-3%	47%	51%	4%	18.71	17.61	17.61	18.71	-1.10	1.47
60+	26%	24%	-2%	48%	46%	-2%	51%	54%	3%	15.26	14.62	13.50	15.84	-0.64	0.95
	100%	100%				-2.5%			3.0%	61.78	58.64	58.64	62.69	-3.14	3.83
										50.53%	47.96%	47.96%	51.28%	-2.57%	3.13%
INCOME	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
0-$15K
	9%	8%	-1%	66%	63%	-3%	33%	36%	3%	7.26	6.93	6.16	3.52	-0.33	0.33
$15-30
	15%	15%	0%	59%	57%	-2%	39%	42%	3%	10.82	10.45	10.45	7.70	-0.37	0.55
$30-50
	22%	22%	0%	52%	50%	-2%	47%	49%	2%	13.99	13.45	13.45	13.18	-0.54	0.54
$50-75
	23%	23%	0%	45%	43%	-2%	53%	56%	3%	12.65	12.09	12.09	15.75	-0.56	0.84
$75-100
	13%	14%	1%	49%	45%	-4%	50%	55%	5%	7.79	7.15	7.70	9.41	-0.64	0.79
$100-150
	11%	11%	0%	45%	42%	-3%	53%	57%	4%	6.05	5.65	5.65	7.67	-0.40	0.54
$150-200
	4%	4%	0%	47%	42%	-5%	53%	58%	5%	2.30	2.05	2.05	2.84	-0.24	0.24
$200+
	3%	3%	0%	41%	35%	-6%	58%	63%	5%	1.50	1.28	1.28	2.31	-0.22	0.18
	100%	100%				-3.38%			3.75%	62.36	59.06	58.84	62.38	-3.30	4.02
										51.01%	48.31%	48.13%	51.02%	-2.70%	3.29%
IDEOLOGY	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
Liberal
	22%	21%	-1%	86%	85%	-1%	12%	13%	1%	23.13	22.86	21.82	3.34	-0.27	0.27
Moderate
	45%	45%	0%	57%	54%	-3%	41%	45%	4%	31.36	29.71	29.71	24.76	-1.65	2.20
Conservative
	33%	34%	1%	16%	15%	-1%	82%	84%	2%	6.46	6.05	6.24	34.92	-0.40	0.81
	100%	100%				-1.67%			2.33%	60.95	58.62	57.77	63.01	-2.32	3.28
										49.85%	47.95%	47.25%	51.54%	-1.90%	2.68%
RELIGION	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
Protestant	53%	53%	0%	43%	40%	-3%	56%	59%	3%	27.86	25.92	25.92	38.23	-1.94	1.94
Catholic
	27%	27%	0%	50%	47%	-3%	49%	52%	3%	16.51	15.51	15.51	17.17	-0.99	0.99
Jewish	3%	3%	0%	77%	74%	-3%	23%	25%	2%	2.82	2.71	2.71	0.92	-0.11	0.07
Other
	7%	7%	0%	75%	74%	-1%	20%	23%	3%	6.42	6.33	6.33	1.97	-0.09	0.26
None
	10%	10%	0%	70%	67%	-3%	29%	31%	2%	8.56	8.19	8.19	3.79	-0.37	0.24
	100%	100%				-2.60%			2.60%	62.17	58.67	58.67	62.07	-3.50	3.51
										50.85%	47.99%	47.99%	50.77%	-2.86%	2.87%
MILITARY	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
Yes
	18%	18%	0%	43%	41%	-2%	55%	57%	2%	9.46	9.02	9.02	12.54	-0.44	0.44
No
	82%	82%	0%	53%	50%	-3%	46%	49%	3%	53.13	50.13	50.13	49.12	-3.01	3.01
	100%	100%				-2.5%			2.5%	62.60	59.15	59.15	61.67	-3.48	3.48
										51.20%	48.38%	48.38%	50.44%	-2.84%	2.84%
WHEN DECIDED	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
Today
	6%	5%	-1%	53%	52%	-1%	40%	45%	5%	3.89	3.81	3.18	2.75	-0.07	0.37
Last3Days
	3%	4%	1%	53%	55%	2%	41%	42%	1%	1.94	2.02	2.69	2.05	0.07	0.04
Last Week
	2%	2%	0%	48%	48%	0%	51%	51%	0%	1.17	1.17	1.17	1.25	0.00	0.00
Last Month
	10%	10%	0%	60%	54%	-6%	38%	44%	6%	7.34	6.60	6.60	5.38	-0.73	0.73
Before
	79%	79%	0%	50%	46%	-4%	50%	53%	3%	48.29	44.43	44.43	51.19	-3.86	2.90
	100%	100%				-1.80%			3.00%	62.63	58.04	58.07	62.62	-4.60	4.03
										51.23%	47.47%	47.50%	51.22%	-3.76%	3.30%
															
															
REGION	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
East	22%	22%	0%	58%	56%	-2%	41%	43%	2%	15.60	15.06	15.06	11.57	-0.54	0.54
Midwest	26%	26%	0%	50%	48%	-2%	49%	51%	2%	15.89	15.26	15.26	16.21	-0.64	0.64
South	31%	32%	1%	44%	42%	-2%	54%	58%	4%	16.68	15.92	16.43	22.69	-0.76	1.52
West	21%	20%	-1%	53%	50%	-3%	45%	49%	4%	13.61	12.84	12.23	11.98	-0.77	1.03
	100%	100%				-1.98%			3.00%	61.78	59.08	58.98	62.45	-2.70	3.72
										50.53%	48.32%	48.24%	51.08%	-2.21%	3.04%
															
PARTY ID	(Rep 36% in 11027)														
Democrat
	38%	37%	-1%	90%	89%	-1%	9%	11%	2%	41.81	41.35	40.26	4.98	-0.46	0.93
Republican
	35%	37%	2%	7%	6%	-1%	92%	93%	1%	3.00	2.57	2.71	42.07	-0.43	0.43
Independent	27%	26%	-1%	52%	49%	-3%	45%	48%	3%	17.17	16.17	15.58	15.26	-0.99	0.99
	100%	100%				-1.67%			2.00%	61.97	60.09	58.55	62.30	-1.88	2.35
										50.69%	49.15%	47.89%	50.96%	-1.54%	1.92%
															
VOTED IN 2000	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
No	17%	17%	0%	57%	54%	-3%	41%	45%	4%	11.85	11.22	11.22	9.35	-0.62	0.83
Gore	38%	37%	-1%	91%	90%	-1%	8%	10%	2%	42.28	41.81	40.71	4.52	-0.46	0.93
Bush	41%	43%	2%	9%	9%	0%	90%	91%	1%	4.51	4.51	4.73	47.84	0.00	0.50
Other	4%	3%	-1%	65%	71%	6%	13%	21%	8%	3.18	3.47	2.60	0.77	0.29	0.39
	100%	100%				0.50%			3.75%	61.81	61.02	59.27	62.49	-0.79	2.65
										50.56%	49.91%	48.48%	51.11%	-0.65%	2.17%
															
											
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PROGRESSIVE1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-19-05 01:01 PM
Response to Original message
1. KICK
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-19-05 06:39 PM
Response to Reply #1
15. GRAPH: EXIT POLL TIMELINE OF CHARACTERISTIC WEIGHTS
Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 06:46 PM by TruthIsAll
Notice which change going from 13047 to 13660:
Party ID
Voted in 2000

But the other category weights, such as Gender (54% female/46% male) are CONSTANT from 11027 through 13660.

The Bush percentage share of each characteristic, not shown in this graph, increased from the Preliminary 13047 to the Final 13660 respondents, while Kerry's decreased.

Quite a trick, to turn 180 degrees from a 51-48 Kerry win to a 51-48 Bush win with just 613 additional exit poll respondents and a fairly constant set of weights, except for Party ID and How Voted in 2000.


Image
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-19-05 07:54 PM
Response to Reply #1
16. GRAPH: KERRY EXIT POLL PERCENTAGES - PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
Kerry was doing great in all Exit Poll categories at 7:38 pm after 11027 responded. He was winning by 51-48%

He was doing virtually the same in all Exit Poll categories at 12:22 am after another 2020 responded to increase the total to 13047.
He was still winning 51-48%.

But then the final 613 responded, bringing the total to 13660 at 2:05 pm. Bush won 51-48%.

The characteristic weight mix for most categories remained the same, except for Party-ID and How Voted in 2000. These weights were adjusted in Bush's favor, even though the "Party_ID" mix was at variance with the last 3 elections and the "How Voted in 2000" numbers were impossible.

Forty-three (43%) could NOT have voted for Bush in 2000; that would mean he had 52.5 million votes. He only had 50.5 million.

But the numbers which did the damage were Bush's actual share vs. Kerry in all the sub-groups. His numbers increased in just about every single group.

And Kerry's numbers declined accordingly. This graph shows the Kerry detail.

Image
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-20-05 01:43 AM
Response to Reply #1
20. Very small correction to Bush Preliminary Exit Poll % calculation
Edited on Sun Mar-20-05 01:58 AM by TruthIsAll
	Prel.	Final		122.26	million votes										
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
GENDER	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
Male
	46%	46%	0%	47%	44%	-3%	52%	55%	3%	26.43	29.24	24.75	30.93	-1.69	1.69
Female
	54%	54%	0%	54%	51%	-3%	45%	48%	3%	35.65	29.71	33.67	31.69	-1.98	1.98
	100%	100%				-3.0%			3.0%	62.08	58.95	58.42	62.62	-3.67	3.67
										50.78%	48.22%	47.78%	51.22%	-3.00%	3.00%
															
															
EDUCATION	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
No
H.S.	4%	4%	0%	52%	50%	-2%	47%	49%	2%	2.54	2.30	2.45	2.40	-0.10	0.10
H.S.
	22%	22%	0%	51%	47%	-4%	48%	52%	4%	13.72	12.91	12.64	13.99	-1.08	1.08
College
	31%	32%	1%	47%	46%	-1%	51%	54%	3%	17.81	19.33	18.00	21.13	-0.38	1.14
ColGrad	26%	26%	0%	48%	46%	-2%	50%	52%	2%	15.26	15.89	14.62	16.53	-0.64	0.64
PostG
	17%	16%	-1%	58%	55%	-3%	40%	44%	4%	12.05	8.31	10.76	8.61	-0.62	0.83
	100%	100%				-2.40%			3.00%	61.39	58.75	58.46	62.65	-2.81	3.78
										50.21%	48.05%	47.82%	51.24%	-2.30%	3.09%
															
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
RACE AND GENDER	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
WM	36%	36%	0%	41%	37%	-4%	58%	62%	4%	18.05	25.53	16.29	27.29	-1.76	1.76
WF	41%	41%	0%	47%	44%	-3%	52%	55%	3%	23.56	26.07	22.06	27.57	-1.50	1.50
NWM	10%	10%	0%	69%	67%	-2%	28%	30%	2%	8.44	3.42	8.19	3.67	-0.24	0.24
NWF	13%	13%	0%	77%	75%	-2%	22%	24%	2%	12.24	3.50	11.92	3.81	-0.32	0.32
	100%	100%				-2.75%			2.75%	62.28	58.51	58.45	62.34	-3.83	3.83
										50.94%	47.86%	47.81%	50.99%	-3.13%	3.13%
	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
AGE	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
18-29
	17%	17%	0%	56%	54%	-2%	43%	45%	2%	11.64	8.94	11.22	9.35	-0.42	0.42
30-44
	27%	29%	2%	49%	46%	-3%	50%	53%	3%	16.17	16.51	16.31	18.79	-0.99	0.99
45-59
	30%	30%	0%	51%	48%	-3%	47%	51%	4%	18.71	17.24	17.61	18.71	-1.10	1.47
60+	26%	24%	-2%	48%	46%	-2%	51%	54%	3%	15.26	16.21	13.50	15.84	-0.64	0.95
	100%	100%				-2.5%			3.0%	61.78	58.89	58.64	62.69	-3.14	3.83
										50.53%	48.17%	47.96%	51.28%	-2.57%	3.13%
INCOME	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
0-$15K
	9%	8%	-1%	66%	63%	-3%	33%	36%	3%	7.26	3.63	6.16	3.52	-0.33	0.33
$15-30
	15%	15%	0%	59%	57%	-2%	39%	42%	3%	10.82	7.15	10.45	7.70	-0.37	0.55
$30-50
	22%	22%	0%	52%	50%	-2%	47%	49%	2%	13.99	12.64	13.45	13.18	-0.54	0.54
$50-75
	23%	23%	0%	45%	43%	-2%	53%	56%	3%	12.65	14.90	12.09	15.75	-0.56	0.84
$75-100
	13%	14%	1%	49%	45%	-4%	50%	55%	5%	7.79	7.95	7.70	9.41	-0.64	0.79
$100-150
	11%	11%	0%	45%	42%	-3%	53%	57%	4%	6.05	7.13	5.65	7.67	-0.40	0.54
$150-200
	4%	4%	0%	47%	42%	-5%	53%	58%	5%	2.30	2.59	2.05	2.84	-0.24	0.24
$200+
	3%	3%	0%	41%	35%	-6%	58%	63%	5%	1.50	2.13	1.28	2.31	-0.22	0.18
	100%	100%				-3.38%			3.75%	62.36	58.12	58.84	62.38	-3.30	4.02
										51.01%	47.54%	48.13%	51.02%	-2.70%	3.29%
IDEOLOGY	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
Liberal
	22%	21%	-1%	86%	85%	-1%	12%	13%	1%	23.13	3.23	21.82	3.34	-0.27	0.27
Moderate
	45%	45%	0%	57%	54%	-3%	41%	45%	4%	31.36	22.56	29.71	24.76	-1.65	2.20
Conservative
	33%	34%	1%	16%	15%	-1%	82%	84%	2%	6.46	33.08	6.24	34.92	-0.40	0.81
	100%	100%				-1.67%			2.33%	60.95	58.87	57.77	63.01	-2.32	3.28
										49.85%	48.15%	47.25%	51.54%	-1.90%	2.68%
RELIGION	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
Protestant	53%	53%	0%	43%	40%	-3%	56%	59%	3%	27.86	36.29	25.92	38.23	-1.94	1.94
Catholic
	27%	27%	0%	50%	47%	-3%	49%	52%	3%	16.51	16.17	15.51	17.17	-0.99	0.99
Jewish	3%	3%	0%	77%	74%	-3%	23%	25%	2%	2.82	0.84	2.71	0.92	-0.11	0.07
Other
	7%	7%	0%	75%	74%	-1%	20%	23%	3%	6.42	1.71	6.33	1.97	-0.09	0.26
None
	10%	10%	0%	70%	67%	-3%	29%	31%	2%	8.56	3.55	8.19	3.79	-0.37	0.24
	100%	100%				-2.60%			2.60%	62.17	58.56	58.67	62.07	-3.50	3.51
										50.85%	47.90%	47.99%	50.77%	-2.86%	2.87%
MILITARY	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
Yes
	18%	18%	0%	43%	41%	-2%	55%	57%	2%	9.46	12.10	9.02	12.54	-0.44	0.44
No
	82%	82%	0%	53%	50%	-3%	46%	49%	3%	53.13	46.12	50.13	49.12	-3.01	3.01
	100%	100%				-2.5%			2.5%	62.60	58.22	59.15	61.67	-3.48	3.48
										51.20%	47.62%	48.38%	50.44%	-2.84%	2.84%
WHEN DECIDED	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
Today
	6%	5%	-1%	53%	52%	-1%	40%	45%	5%	3.89	2.93	3.18	2.75	-0.07	0.37
Last3Days
	3%	4%	1%	53%	55%	2%	41%	42%	1%	1.94	1.50	2.69	2.05	0.07	0.04
Last Week
	2%	2%	0%	48%	48%	0%	51%	51%	0%	1.17	1.25	1.17	1.25	0.00	0.00
Last Month
	10%	10%	0%	60%	54%	-6%	38%	44%	6%	7.34	4.65	6.60	5.38	-0.73	0.73
Before
	79%	79%	0%	50%	46%	-4%	50%	53%	3%	48.29	48.29	44.43	51.19	-3.86	2.90
	100%	100%				-1.80%			3.00%	62.63	58.62	58.07	62.62	-4.60	4.03
										51.23%	47.95%	47.50%	51.22%	-3.76%	3.30%
															
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
REGION	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
East	22%	22%	0%	58%	56%	-2%	41%	43%	2%	15.60	11.03	15.06	11.57	-0.54	0.54
Midwest	26%	26%	0%	50%	48%	-2%	49%	51%	2%	15.89	15.58	15.26	16.21	-0.64	0.64
South	31%	32%	1%	44%	42%	-2%	54%	58%	4%	16.68	20.47	16.43	22.69	-0.76	1.52
West	21%	20%	-1%	53%	50%	-3%	45%	49%	4%	13.61	11.55	12.23	11.98	-0.77	1.03
	100%	100%				-1.98%			3.00%	61.78	58.62	58.98	62.45	-2.70	3.72
										50.53%	47.95%	48.24%	51.08%	-2.21%	3.04%
															
PARTY ID	(Rep 36% in 11027)														
Democrat
	38%	37%	-1%	90%	89%	-1%	9%	11%	2%	41.81	4.18	40.26	4.98	-0.46	0.93
Republican
	35%	37%	2%	7%	6%	-1%	92%	93%	1%	3.00	39.37	2.71	42.07	-0.43	0.43
Independent	27%	26%	-1%	52%	49%	-3%	45%	48%	3%	17.17	14.85	15.58	15.26	-0.99	0.99
	100%	100%				-1.67%			2.00%	61.97	58.40	58.55	62.30	-1.88	2.35
										50.69%	47.77%	47.89%	50.96%	-1.54%	1.92%
	13047	13660	Chg	KP	KF	KChg	BP	BF	BChg	KVP	BVP	KVF	BVF	KChg	BChg
VOTED IN 2000	(no change from 11027 to 13047)														
No	17%	17%	0%	57%	54%	-3%	41%	45%	4%	11.85	8.52	11.22	9.35	-0.62	0.83
Gore	38%	37%	-1%	91%	90%	-1%	8%	10%	2%	42.28	3.72	40.71	4.52	-0.46	0.93
Bush	41%	43%	2%	9%	9%	0%	90%	91%	1%	4.51	45.11	4.73	47.84	0.00	0.50
Other	4%	3%	-1%	65%	71%	6%	13%	21%	8%	3.18	0.64	2.60	0.77	0.29	0.39
	100%	100%				0.50%			3.75%	61.81	57.99	59.27	62.49	-0.79	2.65
										50.56%	47.43%	48.48%	51.11%	-0.65%	2.17%
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-21-05 09:42 AM
Response to Reply #20
21. THE ABOVE TABLE IS CORRECT ; DISREGARD THE "SIMPLE EXPLANATION" POST
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 10:01 AM by TruthIsAll
There is no simple 1% adjustment factor applied to 13047 respondent.
The adjustments are the percentage change in the INDIVIDUAL DEMOGRAPHIC ALLOCATION WEIGHTS.

In other words, Bush's share of the female vote went from 45% to 48%.
On a weighted basis, that is equal to an additional 1.98% of the total female vote.

In terms of the 54% or 331 females in the 613 additional respondents,
Bush Final =.54*.48*13660 =3540
Bush preliminary =.54*.45*13047 =3170

So Bush gained 370 of the final 331 females.
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mimitabby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-19-05 01:05 PM
Response to Original message
2. excellent work
please do not let my suggestion discourage you, because I can see a lot of thought and energy did go into this.
Some democrats voted for *.
I know some of them, they are the kind of democrats who get their news from the tv.
one said to me "I voted for * because i wanted him to finish that war he started and i don't trust kerry"
in fact, she said this was the first time in her life that she did not vote straight democratic.

no, she's not sharp, but she votes.
There are more...
so it wasn't just the dead GOP voting for * there was also the brain dead and brainwashed democrats...
m
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-19-05 01:14 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. No, Kerry won 91% of the Democratic vote... a very constant %
Don't draw conclusions based on a few anecdotal instances.

More Bush 2000 voters switched to Kerry than Gore voters switched to Bush.
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PittLib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-19-05 02:21 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. Agreed ...
Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 02:22 PM by PittLib
Any intelligent republicans I know voted for Kerry. A repub friend of mine even got a member of the * campaign to vote Kerry (he's a law student and was worried about the Supreme Court stacking). I did encounter the opposite while phone banking ... one woman stated "Kerry is an elitist and I don't like him", but it was rare.

On edit:

Thanks for all your work! :)
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-19-05 03:03 PM
Response to Reply #3
8. See this thread (which I know you have already TIA).
Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 03:04 PM by Bill Bored
<http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... >

It's easy to make it easy for Dems to vote for Bush and hard for Republicans to vote for Kerry!
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Blue Belle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-19-05 01:23 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. I agree with Mimi that there are some exceptions....
Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 01:34 PM by Blue Belle
I know some middle of the road voters - both Democrat and Republican - who voted against Kerry because of the influence of their Church. Catholics who generally lean Democrat were overwhelmingly in favor of Bush this time around. I also think it's important to note that more than half of these people have expressed to me how sorry they are now for voting for Bush. The pro-neocon brainwashing has got to stop. We've got to get this Propaganda noise machine off our airwaves and out of our churches.

I do think this is some great data that was collected. It's very informative.

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Blue Belle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-19-05 01:25 PM
Response to Original message
5. Great Job...
KICK

:kick:
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-19-05 02:24 PM
Response to Original message
7. Once again, excellent. This must be heard across America!
The TIA posts are, IMHO, the most informative posts regarding the election on the entire internet, not just DU. Someone should be putting together a compendium. If I had Warren "farking" Buffet money, I'd fund a TIA think tank to put this all together and disseminate it.

:kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick:

and nominate!
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-19-05 03:06 PM
Response to Original message
9. How long can the national media ignore the absurd and
mathematically impossible data being foisted as the final results?

Whoever gets on this first will be entering a journalistic gold mine.

And David Pace of the AP wrote a good article today on provisional ballot counting variations between states, so I emailed him a link to this thread.

:thumbsup:
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Spiffarino Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-19-05 03:11 PM
Response to Original message
10. I love this stuff
I just wish it didn't take so %!#$% long to read it.

:yourock:
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lthuedk Donating Member (551 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-19-05 03:36 PM
Response to Original message
11. Kick and then some


Stephen Pitt
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wiggs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-19-05 04:25 PM
Response to Original message
12. Thanks...and Question:
How do the preliminary exits poll, final exit poll, and ACTUAL VOTE compare in terms of demographics for gender and party ID? There must be a way to know, from poll books, who voted. Is this info available?

Which represents the actual vote more closely, the preliminary exit poll or the final (gender and party ID)?

I believe. But seems like this is an important question, to know if weighting with respect to gender/party ID was for legitimate reasons or not. If the final exit poll weighting was FURTHER from the actual vote demographic, then you have ADDITIONAL ammo to use in showing that exit polls were skewed to match skewed actual vote. If the final exit poll is CLOSER, there are still the problems you describe above.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-19-05 09:45 PM
Response to Reply #12
19. That is the dilemma...why NOT match to a known historical fact?
"If the final exit poll weighting was FURTHER from the actual vote demographic, then you have ADDITIONAL ammo to use in showing that exit polls were skewed to match skewed actual vote. If the final exit poll is CLOSER, there are still the problems you describe above".

It is an established fact, stated by the exit pollsters, that the final exit poll is "adjusted" to match the vote, on the assumption that the actual vote is 100% accurate...

Well, we can assume the actual 2000 vote is 100% accurate,right?

So why match to an impossible result?



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intensitymedia Donating Member (101 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-19-05 04:31 PM
Response to Original message
13. I agree TIA has the best analysis on the internet - so what next?`
& I'll always follow DU if TIA is posting here -

So what steps can/should be taken to nail all this to the wall?

Suggestions welcome -

peace, but never give up the struggle

che

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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-19-05 08:43 PM
Response to Reply #13
17. Yes, what is next?
Thank you, TIA!

Kick!
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Al-CIAda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-19-05 04:41 PM
Response to Original message
14. Thank you TIA -eom
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BushSpeak Donating Member (133 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-19-05 09:25 PM
Response to Original message
18. To put it even simpler - 97 Kerry voters
died between 12:22am and 2:05pm

at 12:22am 51% of 13047 = 6654

at 2:05pm 48% of 13660 = 6557

Anybody got Colombo's telephone number?
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