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NATIONAL EXIT POLL: PRELIMINARY TO FINAL - WHAT HAPPENED?

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-26-05 12:24 PM
Original message
NATIONAL EXIT POLL: PRELIMINARY TO FINAL - WHAT HAPPENED?
Edited on Sat Feb-26-05 01:23 PM by TruthIsAll
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-26-05 12:27 PM
Response to Original message
1. So TIA--- ah em--are you saying Kerry won? >wink<
Edited on Sat Feb-26-05 12:27 PM by FogerRox
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-26-05 12:58 PM
Response to Original message
2. nice work TIA - I hope you land a book contract!
:-)
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-26-05 02:19 PM
Response to Original message
3. The morphing of the weights is fascinating - and very revealing
Edited on Sat Feb-26-05 03:07 PM by TruthIsAll
.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-26-05 04:56 PM
Response to Original message
4. Deviations from prelim. exit poll to final exit poll to the vote
Kerry:
Prelim.Exit 50.73
Final Exit 47.97
Deviation -2.76

Prelim.Exit 50.73
Vote 48.24
Deviation: -2.49

Final Exit 47.97
Vote 48.24
Deviation +0.27
............................................
Bush:
Prelim.Exit 47.91
Final Exit 51.10
Deviation +3.19

Prelim.Exit 47.91
Vote 50.73
Deviation: +2.82

Final Exit 51.10
Vote 50.73
Deviation -0.37
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-26-05 06:14 PM
Response to Original message
5. What happened to the Nader vote
It virtually dissapears (-0.63%) from the preliminary to the final.
Roundoff hides the actual numbers.

Why do they do this?
Why not at least one decimal place?

Fudge.

Que Bono?
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 02:02 AM
Response to Original message
6. Infallible logic here.
Then how come Bush voters outnumbered Gore voters by 6%?
Are we to believe Gore voters decided to stay home this time?
HOW DOES THIS STAT JIBE WITH THE RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER
THEORY?
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davidgmills Donating Member (651 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 07:20 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. It doesn't but it does jibe with
the computer election coup theory.

Good work as usual TIA.
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ihelpu2see Donating Member (935 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 09:47 AM
Response to Original message
8. TIA, it makes you think that the Exit poll people held some
"sampling" back, so that in the end they could adjust the #s and say that exit polls are reliable?? I say "sampling" for the obvious reason, I think the Nadar vote totally going away is the final nail in the coffin!!! Lets hope for continued action on the Ohio vote and for an outcome that will confirm, in the least, that Rove provided the intel for Blackwell to cook the election in Ohio
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 09:03 PM
Response to Original message
9. This "final weighting" is just ridiculous!
For one thing, the Dems had a blowout success in new voter registrations in 2004--Dems 57%, vs. Repubs 41%. Now think about all those new Democratic voter registrants. They certainly didn't register and vote for the first time to vote for Bush! And think about HOW they were prodded to register and vote, and by whom--family, friends, co-workers, the repeat Gore 2000 voters, probably still angry over the 2000 stolen election and everything that's happened since (unjust war, etc.). Are THOSE people dragging their relatives and friends to the polls---to vote for Bush?? Did they do that, and then themselves forget to vote? And Kerry also got 64% of the 3rd party vote, according to polls cited by Dr. Steven Freeman. The "final weighting" is UNREAL. It is B.S.!

Here's Freeman's analysis:

Table 2.2. Expected Presidential Votes based on Changes From the 2000 Election

----------Dem (G or K)---------Bush ------------3rd Party--------Tot

2000:----50,999,897 (48%)---50,456,002 (48%)---3,949,201 (4%)---105,405,100
2004:----57,890,314 (48%)---61,194,773 (51%)---1,170,071 (1%)---120,255,158

Increase:---6,890,417--------10,738,771----minus(2,779,130)-----14,850,058 (14%)


(Distributing the votes on a reasonable expectation formula:)

(1) 95%
of 00 vote----48,400,00------47,900,000---------3,800,000------100,000,000

(2) 3rd
Party -----2,300,000 (64%)------600,000 (17%)
-----------------------------------------------New voters: 20,200,000

(3) New
Voters
distrib'ed ----11,500,000 (57%)---8,300,000 (41%)

Expected
Total --------62,200,000-------56,800,000


Discre-
pancy --------(4,300,000)-------4,400.000


Freeman explains this very simply in his section entitled, "The Numbers Dont Add Up." He says that, in 2000, Gore won the popular vote by more than half a million, but in 2004, Bush beat Kerry by 3.3 millionyet there were only two major changes in the voting population: 1) the 3rd party vote declined by 2.8 million, and 2) get-out-the-vote campaigns. 95% of the 2000 electorate voted in the 2004 election. That gives Kerry a base of 48.4 million (Gore voters), and Bush 47.9 million. Election night polls showed that Kerry got 64% of ex-Nader voters (2.5 million) and Bush got only 17% (600,000). In 2004, Dems beat Repubs in new voter registration by 57% to 41%. And when you add these three blocks of voters togetherthe base vote from 2000, the 3rd Party vote, and new voter registration"it looks as though Kerry somehow received 4,300,000 votes less than he should have, and Bush somehow received over 4,400,000 votes more than he should have."

----

"Hypotheses for Explaining the Exit Poll-Official Count Discrepancy in the 2004 US Presidential Election" - http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf/epdiscrep.htm

----

Kerry won by 4 to 8 million votes--probably more (when you take spoilage and racist vote suppression into account).

----

This B.S. from Mitofsky and the BushCons reminds me of "Church History" taught to me in a Catholic grammar school in the 1950s. Mind-bogglingly false. Twisted. Warped. Every story, every paragraph full of self-serving lies.

But it taught me a thing or two about propaganda. For that I will be eternally grateful.
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 09:44 PM
Response to Original message
10. Does. Not. Add. Up.
Makes. No. Sense.

And now that *'s charm offensive has been topped off by Putin calling him on his press manipulation, and the role of the electoral college in his 2000 "election", people are going to grow in willingness to question whether or not we really have an elected president.

Wow, the KGB-bred president of Russia, pointing out the Stalin in a U.S. president: I guess that's the kind of world we're living in right now.

:shrug:

and,

:thumbsup:
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-28-05 12:20 PM
Response to Original message
11. Naysays, come on, "weigh" in on the 6% difference between
Edited on Mon Feb-28-05 12:28 PM by TruthIsAll
the 43% who voted for Bush in 2000 vs. the 37% who voted for Gore. Rather than Reluctant Bush Responders, isn't this an indication of Reluctant Kerry Responders?

Or is something else going on here?

And while you're at it, "weigh in" on the other weighting changes in the morphing of the Preliminary Exit Poll to the recorded vote-matching Final.

Party ID
Gender
First time Voter

etc etc etc

Next spin, please.





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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-28-05 12:58 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. Reminds me a conversation I've had witha few friends here in NJ
It goes sumtin like this:
GOre won NJ in 2000 by 16%, which one of those voters then turned around and voted for Bush in 2004?

And additionally: there was a poll in NJ that said IIRC
Bush 56%
Kerry 44%

Yeah right, about a week later IIRC, the poller said opps, we used a 60% repub sample. Well in a dead heat Bush/Kerry would have come out 60% Bush 40% Kerry. But it didnt, the poll had Bush coming in 4% lower (56% vs. 60%), which to me suggests Kerry by 8%, yet Kerry took NJ by IIRC about 5%.

Which suggests a 3% hack the vote effort here in NJ.
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anaxarchos Donating Member (963 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-28-05 01:06 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. You have just set up a difficult dilema...

Argue one way, and you support the exit polls show Kerry won. Argue the other and you not only support "Reluctant Kerry Responders" but potentially the widespread impact of voter suppression, purging the registration rolls, etc.

What to do? What to do...
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-28-05 05:44 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. What to do?--speak the language of Revolution---not just guns, I mean
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dzika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-28-05 07:13 PM
Response to Original message
15. Why do they even bother weighting the exit polls?
The final exit polls are weighted to match the vote total. My understanding is that this is supposed to correct errors in the exit polls so that the details are meaningful for understanding the breakdown of actual voters.

Since voters don't provide demographic information with each vote, there is no way to tell if the weighted exit poll details match the details of the actual voters.

In each of TIA's 9 points above, the weighted exit polls are called into question due to significant deviation from the 2000 final exit polls. The comparison to the 2000 vote, point number 4, is particularly interesting because it is in direct contradiction to the facts.


I'm wondering why the media always seems to only publish the most recent exit poll numbers on their web sites. If there is nothing sinister going on then why wouldn't they provide a historical trend of polling results from throughout the day?

Why doesn't the media provide both the final weighted and un-weighted numbers? Why is it that they seem hell-bent on keeping the process behind exit polling a mystery?

Finally, if the un-weighted final exit polls were wrong as Mitofsky claims then what is the purpose in weighting it at all? Is there a reason to believe that when weighted to the final vote the other details of the exit poll would not still be flawed?


Clearly, TIA's point number 4 shows that the question of Gore respondents can't be trusted. Given that fact alone, I don't see how anyone serious about researching the 2004 vote would trust any of the details in the weighted final poll.


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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-28-05 08:47 PM
Response to Original message
16. Do you have the references for your 2 sets of EP data??
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-01-05 09:12 AM
Response to Reply #16
17. Links
Edited on Tue Mar-01-05 09:17 AM by TruthIsAll
HERE'S THE LINK TO THE "PRELIMINARY" 13047 SAMPLE EXIT POLL POSTED NOV.3 ON THE NEP/WP SITE:

http:
//media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif

Here are links to the National Exit Poll demographics.
1996 CNN National Exit Poll 11/06/96
http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/elections/natl.exit ...

2000 MSNBC
http://www.msnbc.com/m/d2k/g/polllaunch.asp

THE TRUE PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL OF 13047



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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-01-05 05:29 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. Here is the FINAL for 2004
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-02-05 10:26 AM
Response to Original message
19. WTF! EARLY DECIDERS 53-46 FOR BUSH? KERRY LED IN THE POLLS PRIOR TO OCT.
Edited on Wed Mar-02-05 10:48 AM by TruthIsAll
Are we to believe that scores of pre-election polls WERE ALL WRONG and the FINAL National exit poll "when decided" weightings are correct?

Kerry was leading in all the polls until Sept., when Bush stated to come back. But according to most national and state polls, Kerry took back the lead in the final week.

So how could 79% of responders who decided early (prior to October) have been 53-46 for Bush in the FINAL poll?

The PRELIMINARY poll had this VERY large group tied at 50/50.
Seems just about right, when you factor in the Kerry September swoon.


Image



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anaxarchos Donating Member (963 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-03-05 12:02 AM
Response to Original message
20. Kick... n/t
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-06-05 02:29 AM
Response to Reply #20
21. Must be a good one, naysays nowhere to be found...
Edited on Sun Mar-06-05 03:06 AM by TruthIsAll
They are conflicted on which of the following to use in their next salvo:

1) The Reluctant Bush Responder theory
or
2) The Final National Exit Poll, which states that respondents who voted for Bush outnumbered those who voted for Gore by 43-37%.

If they choose 1) then Mitofsky must have applied bogus weightings to match the recorded votes. So the preliminary exit poll of 13,047 which shows Kerry winning by 51-48% was right after all.

If they choose 2) Mitofsky is left with election fraud as the only possible explanation for the exit poll discrepancies. So the Reluctant Bush Responder theory is no longer possible. Which means fraud was the cause. Which also means that Kerry must have won.

The two choices are in conflict.
Both cannot be true.
Saying one is true negates the other.

Yet one argument cannot be true while the other is false.
BOTH must be true for Bush to have won.
Therefore, both explanations are FALSE.

Either way, the Naysays are in Check.
And I'm not a chess-player.

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anaxarchos Donating Member (963 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-06-05 05:39 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. It IS amazing that this is the thread that doesn't get any arguement. n/t
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