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garybeck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 01:40 AM
Original message
Exit Poll Electoral Map - is this right?
I used an online tool to make this map which shows the electoral map from the exit polls instead of the fraudulent official results:



it's basically the same as the official results map except for OH, FL, and NM. Did I miss any? Are those the only states that actually switched from the exit polls?

I want to get it right because it's going to be used for something, so please let me know if I missed any other switcher states

thanks
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NWHarkness Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 01:59 AM
Response to Original message
1. Iowa?
I could be mistaken, but I thought the exit polls had Kerry up in Iowa.
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garybeck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 02:07 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. hmm, i think you're right
According to exitpollz.org. thanks! looks like I have to go back and redo it now.

if i missed any more please let me know

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garybeck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 02:16 AM
Response to Original message
3. I added Iowa. starting to look like a landslide!
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Wilms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 02:19 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. We really need TIA !
I looked here for close races:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/datagraph.ph...

Colorado
NV
Plus,Florida?
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 02:18 AM
Response to Original message
4. You might want to check it against this chart
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 02:59 AM
Response to Original message
6. Do You Hear a Ringing In Your Ears?

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 03:29 AM
Response to Original message
7. THESE STATES FLIPPED TO BUSH: FL, OH, IA, NM, NV
Edited on Thu Feb-24-05 03:31 AM by TruthIsAll
 

 
		Poll			Kerry	2party	Poll	Prob.	Dev/	Beyond
	St	Size	MOE	StDev	Vote	Poll	Dev	Dev	MOE	MOE?
1	NH	1849	2.27%	1.16%	50.69%	55.50	-4.81%	0.00%	-2.12	Yes
2	NY	1452	2.47%	1.26%	59.29%	63.97	-4.68%	0.01%	-1.89	Yes
3	SC	1735	2.34%	1.20%	41.36%	45.79	-4.42%	0.01%	-1.89	Yes
4	NC	2167	2.10%	1.07%	43.76%	47.31	-3.55%	0.05%	-1.69	Yes
5	VT	685	3.56%	1.81%	60.30%	65.69	-5.38%	0.15%	-1.51	Yes

6	PA	1930	2.22%	1.13%	51.26%	54.41	-3.15%	0.27%	-1.42	Yes
7	OH	1963	2.21%	1.13%	48.94%	52.06	-3.12%	0.28%	-1.41	Yes
8	MN	2178	2.09%	1.07%	51.76%	54.61	-2.85%	0.38%	-1.36	Yes
9	FL	2846	1.84%	0.94%	47.48%	49.93	-2.45%	0.44%	-1.34	Yes
10	DE	770	3.48%	1.78%	53.83%	58.44	-4.61%	0.47%	-1.32	Yes

11	MA	889	3.10%	1.58%	62.68%	66.46	-3.79%	0.84%	-1.22	Yes
12	AL	730	3.57%	1.82%	37.10%	41.08	-3.98%	1.45%	-1.11	Yes
13	RI	809	3.30%	1.69%	60.58%	64.24	-3.66%	1.49%	-1.11	Yes
14	NJ	1520	2.49%	1.27%	53.40%	56.13	-2.73%	1.61%	-1.09	Yes
15	AK	910	3.18%	1.62%	36.77%	40.14	-3.37%	1.91%	-1.06	Yes

16	UT	798	3.18%	1.62%	26.65%	29.93	-3.28%	2.16%	-1.03	Yes
17	NE	785	3.37%	1.72%	33.15%	36.54	-3.39%	2.43%	-1.01	Yes
18	CT	872	3.27%	1.67%	55.28%	58.47	-3.20%	2.76%	-0.98	
19	NV	2116	2.13%	1.09%	48.68%	50.66	-1.98%	3.44%	-0.93	
20	AR	1402	2.61%	1.33%	44.72%	46.93	-2.21%	4.89%	-0.84	

21	VA	1431	2.59%	1.32%	45.87%	47.96	-2.09%	5.65%	-0.81	
22	MS	798	3.44%	1.75%	40.44%	43.20	-2.76%	5.77%	-0.80	
23	NM	1951	2.22%	1.13%	49.60%	51.34	-1.74%	6.17%	-0.79	
24	LA	1669	2.38%	1.22%	42.67%	44.50	-1.83%	6.67%	-0.77	
25	IL	1392	2.60%	1.33%	55.22%	57.13	-1.92%	7.44%	-0.74	

26	CO	2515	1.95%	1.00%	47.63%	49.07	-1.44%	7.45%	-0.74	
27	AZ	1859	2.27%	1.16%	45.00%	46.60	-1.60%	8.39%	-0.70	
28	ID	559	3.91%	1.99%	30.68%	33.33	-2.66%	9.14%	-0.68	
29	WA	2123	2.12%	1.08%	53.65%	55.07	-1.42%	9.43%	-0.67	
30	GA	1536	2.48%	1.26%	41.65%	43.11	-1.46%	12.33%	-0.59	

31	DC	795	1.92%	0.98%	90.52%	91.63	-1.11%	12.86%	-0.58	
32	MO	2158	2.11%	1.07%	46.38%	47.48	-1.09%	15.42%	-0.52	
33	IA	2502	1.96%	1.00%	49.66%	50.67	-1.01%	15.62%	-0.52	
34	IN	926	3.17%	1.62%	39.58%	40.97	-1.39%	19.43%	-0.44	
35	MI	2452	1.98%	1.01%	51.73%	52.55	-0.83%	20.66%	-0.42	

36	CA	1919	2.22%	1.13%	55.04%	55.73	-0.69%	27.12%	-0.31	
37	KY	1034	3.00%	1.53%	39.99%	40.76	-0.76%	30.89%	-0.25	
38	MD	1000	3.07%	1.57%	56.57%	57.04	-0.47%	38.14%	-0.15	
39	OK	1539	2.38%	1.21%	34.43%	34.73	-0.30%	40.32%	-0.13	
40	ME	1968	2.20%	1.12%	54.58%	54.83	-0.25%	41.15%	-0.11	

41	WI	2223	2.08%	1.06%	50.19%	50.21	-0.02%	49.17%	-0.01	
42	MT	640	3.78%	1.93%	39.50%	39.28	0.22%	45.51%	0.06	
43	HI	499	4.38%	2.23%	54.40%	53.32	1.08%	31.38%	0.25	
44	OR	1064	3.00%	1.53%	52.11%	51.22	0.89%	28.17%	0.29	
45	SD	1495	2.45%	1.25%	39.09%	37.42	1.67%	9.11%	0.68	

46	WY	684	3.50%	1.78%	29.69%	32.07	2.38%	9.07%	0.68	
47	ND	649	3.63%	1.85%	36.09%	33.58	2.51%	8.76%	0.69	
48	KS	654	3.65%	1.86%	37.13%	34.60	2.53%	8.68%	0.69	
49	WV	1722	2.35%	1.20%	43.52%	45.19	1.67%	8.14%	0.71	
50	TX	1671	2.31%	1.18%	38.49%	36.84	1.65%	8.08%	0.71	
51	TN	1774	2.29%	1.17%	42.81%	41.15	1.66%	7.75%	0.73	
										
		73607	2.71%	1.38%	47.09%	48.84	-1.75%	10.27%	-0.62	

 
 
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garybeck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. I didn't realize how close NV is. don't they have
voter verified paper records? hopefully someone will subpoena them.
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 01:06 PM
Response to Reply #9
13. Nevada is 100% Electronic Voting
100% Sequoia Voting Systems, Inc.

96.090% Touchscreen, 3.910 Other

Source:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

NV Voter Turnout Report
	
Votes

Registration 1,074,083

Election Day Turnout 396,952
% Precinct 47.736

Early Turnout 346,823
% Early Vote 41.707

Absentee Turnout 87,788
% Absentee 10.557

Total Turnout 831,563
% Turnout 77.421

State Clark County

BUSH 418,690 255,337
% Bush 50.470 46.817
# Republicans 434,239 254,952

KERRY 397,190 281,767
% Kerry 47.878 51.663
# Democrats 429,808 298,246


Total Votes 829,587 545,397
Total Turnout: 831,563 546,858

# Registered 1,071,101 684,313

Vote Total: 815,880 537,104
Non-VoteTotal: 15,683 9,754
Non-Vote Percentage: 1.8860 1.784

Percent of State 100 65.743

U. S. SENATOR

REID, HARRY 494,805 345,694

ZISER, RICHARD 284,640 167,104

Totals 779,445 512,798

% Reid 67.413
% Ziser 32.587

Total Turnout: 831,563 546,858
SenatorialTotal: 779,445 512,798
Non-VoteTotal: 52,118 34,060
Non-Vote Percentage: 6.267 6.228

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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 01:13 PM
Response to Reply #13
15. The noteworthy statistic in all this may be
in Clark County (Las Vegas, 64% of NV votes), Bush gets more votes than the number of registered Republicans and Kerry gets fewer votes than the number of registered Democrats.

This certainly begs the obvious question.
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 09:18 PM
Response to Reply #13
18. Claims of dirty tricks, people in wrong precincts, off. bias, fraud in Nv
http://www.flcv.com/nevada.html

I thougt there was a recount call there, and a court case?
Earlier thread.
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Chi Donating Member (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-26-05 01:08 PM
Response to Reply #13
27. Can't forget this jaw dropper "Sequoia Gives Away Electronic..."
"Sequoia Gives Away Electronic Voting Machines in Swing State Before November Election"

--snip--

"In August of 2004 Sequoia wanted to get its software into the Reno area (Washoe County Board of Commissioners). How much do you think it costs to license their software for voting purposes? $30,000 a year, plus an annual adjustment for increased costs and inflation EXCEPT THAT THE FIRST FOUR YEARS ARE FREE. Thats right, free. See page 743 (PDF). Sequoia wanted to get their software into swing states like Nevada so badly, they gave away the first $120,000 in licensing fees for four years to get the counties to sign on. Nevadas population is 90% urban, consisting mainly of Clark County (Las Vegas) and Reno (Washoe County). Nevada also previously received around $15 million in federal grants to defray the anticipated $17 million cost of the voting machines themselves."

http://www.buzzflash.com/contributors/04/11/con04490.ht...
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 01:27 AM
Response to Reply #9
32. Yes. SOS Dean Heller keeps crowing about his "paper trail"...
Edited on Sun Feb-27-05 01:27 AM by Carolab
and how "successful" it was in stopping fraud. What a crock. We should count his paper trail and make him prove it.
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garybeck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 09:37 PM
Response to Reply #7
19. thanks I've also turned NV blue now n/t
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Enquiringkitty Donating Member (721 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 04:29 AM
Response to Original message
8. I don't understand how this man can keep stealing election. Is he
the son of the devil; have 666 on his scalp?
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loudsue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-25-05 02:02 AM
Response to Reply #8
22. 1) Money and sleezy mafia friends 2) yes 3) probably
Does that answer your questions?? :hi:

:kick: :kick: :kick:
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 12:01 PM
Response to Original message
10. Votes in the States with Close Results.
Edited on Thu Feb-24-05 12:03 PM by L. Coyote

Bush Kerry Pres. Votes %Bush %Kerry Margin
FL 3,955,656 3,574,509 7,591,783 52.104 47.084 -5.0205
CO 1,068,233 960,666 2,054,498 51.995 46.759 -5.2357
OH 2,858,727 2,739,952 5,625,281 50.819 48.708 -2.1115
NV 414,939 393,372 821,866 50.487 47.863 -2.6242
IA 751,957 741,898 1,505,814 49.937 49.269 -0.6680
NM 376,940 370,893 756,348 49.837 49.037 -0.7995
WI 1,477,122 1,488,935 2,992,390 49.363 49.757 0.3948
NH 330,848 340,019 675,314 48.992 50.350 1.3580
PA 2,756,904 2,885,773 5,676,212 48.569 50.840 2.2703
MI 2,310,803 2,475,046 4,832,170 47.821 51.220 3.3989
MN 1,345,175 1,443,619 2,823,218 47.647 51.134 3.4869
OR 823,210 890,698 1,730,629 47.567 51.467 3.8996


Have you factored in the margins of error? Could some states have swung to Bush instead of Kerry if the margin of error is factored? I rather doubt it. You might find your argument stronger if you factor this in!!
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 12:38 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. My estimates have Kerry winning the EC from 317 to 346
Edited on Thu Feb-24-05 12:39 PM by FogerRox

I posted this on nov. 26th
Here is the link:
http://bushflashforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3893


From this summary:
http://rense.com/general59/blatantexitpollfinal.htm

This covers the error 'tween exit polls and the reported results:
Wisconsin: Bush plus 4%
Pennsylvania: Bush plus 5%
Ohio: Bush plus 4%
Florida: Bush plus 7% Minnesota: Bush plus 7%
New Hampshire: Bush plus 15%
North Carolina: Bush plus 9%.


This is the final exit poll and the Published result:
WISCONSIN
Final poll 52-47 ---Kerry won
...Published 50-49

OHIO
Final poll 51-49 ---Kerry won
...Published 49-51

FLORIDA
Final poll 51-49 ---Kerry won
...Published 47-52

MINNESOTA
Final poll 54-44 ---Kerry won
...Published 51-48

NORTH CAROLINA
Final poll 48-52 ---Kerry won
...Published 43-56



Hers the link:
http://bushflashforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3893



Now I will go to this site and enter the real results and see how big Kerrys win really was.


http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc-finalEV.html

Bush 221 EV
Kerry 317 EV

270 required to win.

More on the exit poll error--

http://www.solarbus.org/stealyourelection/articles/exit...

Again more--

http://www.newstarget.com/002076.html
http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf/Documents/ExitPoll.pdf
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garybeck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 01:12 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. hmm, your numbers are different
than what i've seen. for example where do you get that NH had a 15% deviation?

I believe these are the latest figures, showing NH was 4.7% "red shift"

http://www.solarbus.org/election/articles/0128-polls-ta...

And exitpollz.org says 4.9%

I think maybe the report you reference needs to be updated?
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-25-05 12:45 AM
Response to Reply #14
20. The difference is "Margin" numbers
The margin is the split between the candidate percentages. You may be more familiar with the difference between one candidates exit poll number and the same candidates election result.

Also, I am citing Steve Freeman's numbers. Other individuals have used rounded-to-nearest-percent T-V show numbers and numbers adjusted so the major candidate numbers add up to 100 percent.

Even my numbers need work. The candidate percentages are based on presidential vote totals, not total number of ballots cast. That will modify the result percentages somewhat, reducing both candidates percents.
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-26-05 12:36 PM
Response to Reply #14
26. I;m refering to a post I made 11-26-04 @ Bushflash
Piont being Kerry won and I said so, Cause I have a big mouth, LOL
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 12:34 PM
Response to Original message
11. Exit Polls in States with Close Results
		Kerry		Kerry		Margin		Electoral 
Exit Vote Error Votes
NH 54.94 50.684 -4.256 4
NJ 54.70 53.127 -1.573 15
PA 54.12 51.130 -2.990 21
MN 53.52 51.764 -1.756 10
WA 53.48 53.598 0.118 11
OH 52.06 48.749 -3.311 20
MI 51.50 51.734 0.234 17
OR 50.25 51.969 1.719 7
NM 50.08 49.416 -0.664 5
FL 49.70 47.469 -2.231 27
IA 49.70 49.544 -0.156 7
WI 49.24 50.199 0.959 10
NV 49.16 48.666 -0.494 5
CO 48.12 47.349 -0.771 9
MO 47.00 46.327 -0.673 11


Exit Poll Data: Dr. Steve Freeman, ESMTP id <20050 Sun, 2 Jan 2005

NOTE: "Margin Error" is the difference between the candidates, not the margin of error of the exit polls.

I recommend updating this data with turnout numbers instead of presidential vote numbers to determine the actual percentages of the vote received by the candidates. Some of that data is in the Exit Polls spreadsheet this data is drawn from. Some states are not yet reporting that data or do not actually know it!! The known data follows:


Total Registered
Bush Kerry Votes Voters
AK 188,943 109,765 314,502 472,160
AR 573,182 470,230 1,054,945 1,684,684
AZ 908,211 735,327 2,038,069 2,643,331
CA 5,114,795 6,250,561 12,590,863
CO 1,068,233 960,666 2,148,036 2,404,597
CT 686,923 847,666 1,607,808 2,044,181
DC 19,007 183,876 203,448 383,919
DE 171,531 199,887 375,190 555,270
FL 3,955,656 3,574,509 7,640,319 10,301,290
HI 194,109 231,318 431,662 647,238
IA 751,957 741,898 1,513,894 2,106,658
ID 408,254 180,920 612,786 798,015
IL 2,336,253 2,866,307 5,350,493 7,499,488
IN 1,477,807 967,346 2,512,142 4,296,602
LA 1,101,871 819,150 1,943,106 2,923,395
MA 1,067,163 1,793,916 2,927,455 4,098,634
MD 951,892 1,223,813 2,395,791 3,070,337
MI 2,310,803 2,475,046 4,875,692 7,164,047
MN 1,345,175 1,443,619 2,828,387 3,658,000
MO 1,452,715 1,253,879 2,764,635 4,194,146
MS 671,084 445,608 1,139,824 1,802,024
MT 265,473 173,363 456,096 638,474
ND 195,998 110,662 316,049 486,978
NE 508,794 251,626 792,603 1,160,199
NJ 1,594,204 1,812,956 3,638,153 5,009,140
NM 376,940 370,893 775,094 1,105,372
NV 414,939 393,372 829,587 1,074,083
NY 2,962,789 4,314,277 7,448,226 11,837,068
OH 2,858,727 2,739,952 5,574,476 7,979,639
OK 959,655 504,077 1,474,304 2,143,978
OR 823,210 890,698 1,818,544 2,147,685
RI 161,654 247,407 337,027 672,950
SD 232,545 149,225 394,930 552,441
TN 1,381,937 1,033,176 2,456,610 3,704,040
TX 4,518,491 2,825,723 7,410,749 13,098,329
UT 612,623 227,286 942,010 1,278,251
VT 120,710 183,621 314,220 444,077
WA 1,304,894 1,510,201 2,883,499 3,508,208
WV 417,516 322,276 769,645 1,168,694
WY 167,129 70,620 245,789 232,396
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Blue Shark Donating Member (225 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 08:21 PM
Response to Original message
16. John Zogby called the election at 6:00pm EST...
...for JFK II with 311 Electoral Votes
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garybeck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 08:27 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. I wonder if his data matched this map
question

would you consider this a landslide? I think it's close.
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-25-05 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #17
23. You should check out this site
<http://www.electoral-vote.com/dec/dec31.html >

It's all Archive Data now, but during the 2004 campaign, it was a great way to sort out all the "Poll Data" that the *2004 PR department kept throwing at us.

Click "Previous Report" to see previous maps, they go back to May 2004 :evilgrin:
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Blue Shark Donating Member (225 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-26-05 04:02 PM
Response to Reply #17
28. I consider it a Kerry comfortable win...
...and a win is a win is a win. The national numbers are only what the Diebold Tabulators are programmed to report...do you trust the numbers? I don't.

Too freaking bad our guy won and walked away. AHH-fucking-MAZING.
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-25-05 12:54 AM
Response to Original message
21. A clarification about numbers used, and the term "margin."
Some researchers are using the difference between Bush and Kerry in the Exit polls and in the results.

Other researchers are stating the difference between the Kerry Exit Polls and the Kerry Vote.

The word "margin" has being applied in both instances.
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SharonAnn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-25-05 11:31 PM
Response to Original message
24. Illinois? Did'nt it go for Kerry?
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garybeck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-25-05 11:35 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. geography quiz
Illinois is blue. that's indiana :)

don't ask me why bush won indiana by 10%. even the exit polls say he did.
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m.standridge Donating Member (269 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 01:05 AM
Response to Reply #25
29. Gary, I've been looking at AR and there are some things in CO
that might be significant enough to merit examination, as to the actual outcome.
In AR, we have a power failure on election day in a crucial area of precincts, and there was a "migration" phenomenon involving over 53,000 votes in a statewide race that the SOS's office has not be able to adequately explain, and they were very late tabulating.
In this time of a lot of reference to exit polls, I'm reluctant to bring this up, but I think it's possible the exit polls--some of which were showing a near dead-even race (not really exit that much--more last-minute pre-election), were missing just a little bit of data in W and SW AR, due to the Clinton factor. Polls were showing that the state had tightened up to 48-48 in the last 24 hours before the election, and the geography of that suggests that was happening in the Hope and Hot Springs areas-- W and SW AR.
Those are Clinton's home areas, and two areas Bush would have tended to do marginally better in without Clinton being for Kerry.
In CO, there was quite a bit of a delay and a lot of controversy, as well.
Bush carried CO, essentially, last time, (2000) with absentee ballots. That is, he couldn't say for sure he'd won until the Absentees had been counted, because his lead could have been surmounted with a small difference in the absentee ballot count from what it turned out to be. Also, CO was interesting in the 1890s model of the Electoral College last time. I noted in a number of e-mails to Dave Leip and others that had one District there been slightly closer--and with a closer count it might have been, given what we know of recounts marginally benefitting Democrats most of the time--Gore would have had a majority of the counties and Districts, while Bush would have been at a Plurality. The combination of Gore and Nader, at that point, would have qualified for an Electoral vote by the 1890s method, there in CO. That combination would have led Bush in all categories. I thought it was an interesting coincidence that they were looking at the Electoral College methodology with one of their proposed amendments out there, this time, too.
Intriguingly, I also determined that AR was somewhat closer, last time (2000) than it is generally known. There was some controversy involving a statewide race that affected the vote totals in Garland County and the larger Arkansas Senate District 10 race area.
Had some number of votes (I'd have to dig it out now, I don't recall offhand), changed hands on some examination of how ballots were handled in that area, Gore would have done considerably better, though taht alone wouldn't have put him over here. (However, there was some other material in other counties).
And, interestingly, too, Gore carried a majority of Districts in AR, too, as in CO.
Anyway, this isn't as easily pointed out via exit polls. Arkansas was the only other southern state besides FL where Kerry sometimes led Bush in the polls, and he was seldom above a plurality even when he had a lead. In 17 or 18 polls that I saw, the Undecided and Margin of Error usually ate up his lead, even when he had one. They were also tied at least once. And, a second time, 36 hours before the election.
So, AR and CO--you might check out a few things before "calling" them. I think, at the very least, that they were much closer, even down to the wire. When you've got pre-election polls to factor in, you can see it more clearly.
NC I guess went to Bush, there were a lot of glitches, but apparently not enough.
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m.standridge Donating Member (269 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 01:17 AM
Response to Reply #29
30. I also didn't see any pre-election polls suggesting
NC was going to Kerry/Edwards. In LA, VA, and NC, though, Bush was seldome above a Plurality. But he always maintained a lead--in the pre-election polls.
Yeah, I'm wondering about all that about Indiana. Somehow, I just don't buy that 10% thing, 100%.
I wondered about Louisiana some, because of how close that Senate race got there a couple of years ago. It was down to the wire, had to have a runoff or something. But the pre-election polls never indicated it getting that close in Louisiana in the 2004 Presidential.
God, they sure did in AR, though. And in CO. And in WI and IA.
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m.standridge Donating Member (269 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 01:19 AM
Response to Reply #30
31. God forgive my spelling
I think the "spell" part of my brain is already asleep.
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