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18 Battleground State Exit Polls: Prob Kerry>50%: 99.998% (he got 48.87%)

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 09:21 PM
Original message
18 Battleground State Exit Polls: Prob Kerry>50%: 99.998% (he got 48.87%)
Edited on Sun Nov-07-04 09:58 PM by TruthIsAll

The Exit Poll 18 state average: 
Kerry 51.53%-Bush 47.53%(4% Kerry margin)

The actual average vote: 
Bush 50.20%-Kerry 48.87% (1.33% Bush margin)

That was a 5.33% net change in Bush's favor, assuming equal
state weighting.Bush beat tremendous odds in winning the
popular vote margin based on 18 exit polls (below)

Of the 18 states, only ONE (MO) saw a Kerry vote pickup (of
Six (6) showed no change (the exit polls were precisely
Eleven (11) showed a Bush pickup, ranging from 1 to 18%.

		Exit Poll 2pm	Actual Results			
	ST	Kerry	Bush	Diff	Kerry	Bush	Diff	BushGain		
1	AZ	45	55	-10	45	55	-10	0		
2	LA	43	56	-13	42	57	-15	2		
3	MI	51	48	3	51	48	3	0		
4	IA	49	49	0	49	50	-1	1		
5	NM	50	49	1	50	50	0	1		
6	ME	53	45	8	53	45	8	0		
7	NV	48	51	-3	48	51	-3	0		
8	AR	45	54	-9	45	54	-9	0		
9	MO 	46	54	-8	46	53	-7	-1		
10	IL	55	44	11	55	44	11	0		
11	WI	52	48	4	50	49	1	3		
12	PA	60	40	20	51	49	2	18		
13	OH	52	48	4	49	51	-2	6		
14	FL	51	48	3	47	52	-5	8		
15	MN	58	40	18	51	48	3	15		
16	NH	57	41	16	50	49	1	15		
17	NC	49	51	-2	43	56	-13	11		
18	CO	48	51	-3	46	52	-6	3		
average	       51.53	47.53	4.00	48.87	50.20	-1.33	5.33		
Prob of Kerry vote majority: 99.9982%								
Assume a 3% Margin of Error (MOE):								
n (sample size) for 18 polls @1000 exit voters/poll =
Then the margin of error

MoE=	0.0073							
Std=	0.0037								

Plugging into the normal distribution function:

Probability =NORMDIST(0.5153,0.5,0.0037,TRUE)= 99.9982%
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DELUSIONAL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 09:31 PM
Response to Original message
1. Bush is so lucky -- he play poker so well
What we need to do is break this down so that 3rd graders can understand what the numbers mean.

The numbers are telling me that it is highly highly unlikely that these numbers just up and slid into the bush win column all on their own -- that to see numbers like this going for one candidate is statistical proof that some mighty powerful cheating was going on -- and that the cheating was probably an inside job -- all those nice well placed technicians all over the country.

I'd like to see the phone logs of some key players.
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kerry2win Donating Member (321 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 10:31 PM
Response to Original message
2. these no.s are amazing
it screams of FRAUD... thanks truth for all the great work you've been doing on the no.s. Every time I see a new post it gets more and more unbelieveable. Just on these % here the media should be all over this.
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regnaD kciN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 11:39 PM
Response to Original message
3. How often are you going to post variants of this...?
I think we've all seen versions of this, either "as is" or broken down into paper-trail and no-paper-trail states, over the past few days. Most of the time, you seem to have been the one that posted it.

Look, no offense, but I'm a little suspicious of your statistical analysis. You seem to have had Kerry as a 90%+ lock to win the election throughout the campaign, even in early autumn when Bush had a big lead. At the time, I couldn't see any reason why such optimism was justified, no matter how many "Monte Carlo Simulations" you might run.

As the race went on, even though the polls showed a tight race with Bush slightly ahead more likely than not, you kept to your 90%+ probabilty. As I looked at your figures, I noticed that you had a built-in assumption that 60% of the undecideds would vote for Kerry. As the election wrapped up, still a "dead heat" or "too close to call" in most opinions, your Kerry victory probability kept going up -- and it took reading your site to realize that you were getting that figure only by raising your percentage of the undecideds that would break for Kerry from 60% to 75% (!).

Look, we all wanted Bush out -- and I think, in retrospect, that this is why we looked at the polls and only saw what we wanted to see. Even though the race was mostly dead-even within the MOE, and could have gone to either candidate by a few percent, we used various mental dodges (the "under 50% rule," the "approval/disapproval" comparison, the "Kerry better in the battleground states" reasoning) to convince us that what in fact was a virtually-tied race -- in which there was every bit as much chance that Bush would win as Kerry -- was really something where the odds were overwhelmingly in our favor.

And I'm not saying the election might not have been stolen. As a matter of fact, I would tend to think it was. But the fact remains that it had to be close enough in the first place to be credibly stolen, and the notion that Kerry was 90%, or 95%, or 99% sure of victory was more wishful thinking than anything "reality-based." Not to deny that some electoral chicanery likely took place, and that it may even have provided the decisive margin, but isn't it possible that your statistical analysis might simply have been dead wrong?

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confrontationclaws Donating Member (70 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-08-04 12:04 AM
Response to Original message
4. And about that exit poll...
TruthIsAll, you use the exit poll data AS OF 2 p.m. Now I understand there may have been some problems with the exit poll (down time of some kind, as I recall) BUT what happens to the numbers if you use ALL the exit poll results "as of the polls closing"??

(BTW THANKS! JDWalley. I totally agree.)
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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-08-04 04:53 AM
Response to Original message
5. Thanks, I'll post em here: EVOTING FRAUD RESOURCE CENTER


Article Sections:

11-2-04 and newer:



On Site

Other voter fraud


Other Sections:

Web sites

New Additions


Things you can do

Hundreds of resources available through these pages



(Lots of bandwidth)
Du post:

Please send me suggested links, etc.

I'm not getting here 'nuff to keep up completely here.
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