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BASED ON EXIT POLLS, THE PROBABILITY KERRY WOULD LOSE OH AND FL = 0.15%

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 02:43 AM
Original message
BASED ON EXIT POLLS, THE PROBABILITY KERRY WOULD LOSE OH AND FL = 0.15%

That's less than 1/6 of one percent!

To put it another way, the chances are 1 out of 667 that Bush would win BOTH states.

Assuming a 2% MoE for the exit polls (they are much more accurate than standard polls), the probabilities are:

Ohio Exit Poll:
Kerry 52 - Bush 48
Prob (Kerry wins OH)= 97.7%

Florida Exit Poll:
Kerry 51 - Bush 48
Prob (Kerry wins FL)= 93.5%

Then
Prob (Kerry loses FL and OH) =0.15% = (1-.977)*(1-.935)

Prob(Kerry wins OH or FL or Both)= 99.85% = 1 -.15%

How did I calculate the probs?
Simple. Feed the data into the Excel Normal Distribution function:

Since the MoE = .02, the Standard Deviation is .02/1.96 = .01

Prob (Kerry wins OH)= NORMDIST(0.52,0.5,0.01,TRUE) = 97.7%

Prob (Kerry wins FL)= NORMDIST(51/99,0.5,0.01,TRUE) = 93.5%







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JohnnyCougar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 02:50 AM
Response to Original message
1. I wonder what would happen if
we did t-test for independent groups based on the differences between your two groups of states. Or an ANOVA. I wish I could get SPSS on my computer.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 10:39 AM
Response to Reply #1
7. Forget SPSS. You have all the functions you need in Excel
tia
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shelley806 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 02:51 AM
Response to Original message
2. It's so good to see probabilities worked out in black and white....
I know it makes sense, but I can't stand the media downplaying the significance of exit polls. Do they really take us for such fools?
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LisaL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 02:53 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. Yes. And most people seem to accept it without questions.
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George_S Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 02:56 AM
Response to Original message
4. Maybe you have it there already....
but what are the odds that Bush would win both? I mean, Bush has a .15 chance, I guess, but that would be 1 out of what chance?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 03:07 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. Its right there: 1 out of 667
tia
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 10:38 AM
Response to Original message
6. am kick
tia
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 05:31 PM
Response to Original message
8. PM Kick
tia
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 05:40 PM
Response to Original message
9. But rove told us to
disregard the exit polls..

That should be our fucking clue right there.

rove or cheney..whatever.
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peacetalksforall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 08:36 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. He said to disregard? But he also said voters lied to exit poll takers.
So according to the lying excuse - about 50% of Repubs lied by saying they had voted for Kerry when they actually voted for Bush. Wouldn't that mean that they would have had to orchestrate a request to Repubs to ask them to do that by phone or the pulpit or e-mail or billboards?

If they didn't orchestrated that, would it mean that there is a tradition of lying to pollsters?

If you were inclined to respond to a poll, would you lie?

Or did I misunderstand the figures?
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Thomas Jefferson Donating Member (113 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 07:49 PM
Response to Original message
10. kick
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