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National Election Poll: Analysis of Voter Demographics

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-09-05 09:20 PM
Original message
National Election Poll: Analysis of Voter Demographics
Edited on Sun Jan-09-05 09:50 PM by TruthIsAll
Here's a reference for those who want to see the weighted
national characteristic vote summaries in one spot.

Consistency in the weighted votes across all the categories is
a strong confirmation that the only conclusion one can draw
from the national exit poll is this: 

 **********  Kerry won the election by 50.8%-48.2% ********** 

National Exit Poll 
13047 sampled
Randomly selected
1.0% Margin of Error

...................................    Weighted National Vote 
		
GENDER	     Vert.    Bush Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry Nader
Male..          46%     52%    47%	1%	23.5%	21.6%	0.5%
Female          54%     45%    54%	1%	24.3%	29.2%	0.5%
							
             100% 		            48.22% 50.78% 1.00%

........................................................						
						
EDUCATION.......Vert      Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry Nader
No HighSchool    4%        47%     52%   1%	1.9%	2.1%	0.0%
H.S. Graduate    22%       48% 	51%	1%	10.6%	11.2%	0.2%
Some College.    31%       51%	47%	1%	15.8%	14.6%	0.3%
College Grad.     26%      50%	48%	1%	13.0%	12.5%	0.3%
Postgrad.....     17%      40%	58%	2%	6.8%	9.9%	0.3%
							
	           100.%			      48.1%	50.2%	1.2%
							
........................................................			
							
RACE AND GENDER	Vert.	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry Nader
White Men 	      36%	58%	41%	1%	20.9%	14.8%	0.4%
White Women 	         41%	   52%	47%	1%	21.3%	19.3%	0.4%
Non-White Men 	         10%	   28%	69%	1%	2.8%	6.9%	0.1%
Non-White Women 	13%	22%	77%	1%	2.9%	10.0%	0.1%
							
			100%		             47.9%	50.9%	1.0%

........................................................										

 AGE	  Vert. Bush   Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry Nader
18-29 	   17%   43%	56%	1%	7.3%	9.5%	0.2%
30-44 	   27%   50%	49%	1%	13.5%	13.2%	0.3%
45-59 	   30%   47%	51%	1%	14.1%	15.3%	0.3%
60 +  	   26%   51%	48%	1%	13.3%	12.5%	0.3%
							
	  100%			     48.2%	50.5%	1.0%

........................................................			

INCOME	   Vert.	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry Nader
$0-$15,000  	9%	33%	66%	1%	3.0%	5.9%	0.1%
$15-30,000 	  15%	39%	59%	1%	5.9%	8.9%	0.2%
$30-50,000 	  22%	47%	52%	1%	10.3%	11.4%	0.2%
$50-75,000 	  23%	53%	45%	1%	12.2%	10.4%	0.2%
$75-100,000 	13%	50%	49%	0%	6.5%	6.4%	0.0%
$100-150,000 	11%	53%	45%	2%	5.8%	5.0%	0.2%
$150-200,000 	4%	53%	47%	0%	2.1%	1.9%	0.0%
$200,000 + 	   4%	58%	41%	1%	2.3%	1.6%	0.0%
							
		100%		            48.1%	51.4%	1.0%

........................................................										

PARTY ID	    Vert.Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Democrat 	    38%	    9%	90%	1%	3.4%	34.2%	0.4%
Republican 	    36%	   92%	7%	0%	33.1%	2.5%	0.0%
Independent	    26%	   45%	52%	2%	11.7%	13.5%	0.5%

	          100%			        48.2% 50.2% 0.9%
							
........................................................			

IDEOLOGY	Vert. 	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Liberal 	   22%	12%	86%	1%	2.6%	18.9%	0.2%
Moderate 	   45%	41%	57%	1%	18.5%	25.7%	0.5%
Conservative   33%	82%	16%	1%	27.1%	5.3%	0.3%

	         100%				48.2%	49.9%	1.0%
							
........................................................			


RELIGION	Vert. 	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Protestant	   53%	56%	43%	1%	29.7%	22.8%	0.5%
Catholic 	   27%	49%	50%	1%	13.2%	13.5%	0.3%
Jewish	          3%   23%	77%	0%	0.7%	2.3%	0.0%
Other 	          7%	20%	75%	4%	1.4%	5.3%	0.3%
None 	         10%	29%	70%	1%	3.2%	7.7%	0.1%

	         100%				48.2%	51.6%	1.2%
							
........................................................										

MILITARY	Vert. 	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Yes 	         18%	55%	43%	1%	9.9%	7.7%	0.2%
No 	         82%	46%	53%	1%	37.7%	43.5%	0.8%

	         100%				47.6%	51.2%	1.0%
							
........................................................										

WHEN DECIDED	Vert.	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Today 	       6%	40%	53%	5%	2.4%	3.2%	0.3%
Last3 Days 	   3%	41%	53%	4%	1.2%	1.6%	0.1%
Last Week 	   2%	51%	48%	1%	1.0%	1.0%	0.0%
Last Month 	  10%	38%	60%	1%	3.8%	6.0%	0.1%
Before That 	 79%	50%	50%	0%	39.5%	39.5%	0.0%

	       100%				48.0%	51.2%	0.5%

........................................................			

MOST IMPORTANT 
ISSUE	     Vert.    Bush 	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Taxes 	          5%	   53%	47%	0%	2.7%	2.4%	0.0%
Education 	   4%	   24%	75%	0%	1.0%	3.0%	0.0%
Iraq 	         15%   23%	76%	1%	3.5%	11.4%	0.2%
Terrorism 	  18%	   85%	15%	1%	15.3%	2.7%	0.2%
Economy/Jobs   20%	   16%	82%	1%	3.2%	16.4%	0.2%
Moral Values 	 21%	   78%	19%	3%	16.4%	4.0%	0.6%
Health Care 	  8%	   20%	79%	0%	1.6%	6.3%	0.0%

	           100%      			47.9%	50.8%	1.3%


........................................................										
							
REGION	       Vert.	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
East	      22%	41%	58%	1%	9.0%	12.8%	0.2%
Midwest        25%	49%	50%	1%	12.3%	12.5%	0.3%
South	      31%	54%	44%	1%	16.7%	13.6%	0.3%
West	      22%	45%	53%	1%	9.5%	11.1%	0.2%

	      100%				 47.5%	50.0%	1.0%

........................................................			

WEIGHTED SUMMARY
CATEGORY    Bush	Kerry	Nader

GENDER	      48.22%	50.78%	1.00%
EDUCATION     48.05%	50.21%	1.17%
INCOME	      48.12%	51.42%	0.95%

RACE	      47.86%	50.94%	1.00%
AGE	      48.17%	50.53%	1.00%
PARTYID      48.24%	50.24%	0.90%

IDEOLOGY	48.15%	49.85%	1.00%
RELIGION	48.19%	51.55%	1.19%
MILITARY	47.62%	51.20%	1.00%

DECIDED     47.95%	51.23%   0.54%
ISSUES      47.92%     50.80%   1.28%

AVERAGE     48.00%     50.80%	 1.00%

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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-09-05 09:50 PM
Response to Original message
1. Right there in black and white. Just like * likes it.
:thumbsup:
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-09-05 10:08 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. It's also right here in living color.
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-09-05 10:15 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. How do we title this graph? How about "Chimp wins overall vote,
Edited on Sun Jan-09-05 10:16 PM by bleever
while losing every sub-group"?

Or, "Analyzing who put * over the top"?

:thumbsup:


ed: punc.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-13-05 09:26 PM
Response to Reply #1
18. You're a bleever, so I'll kick it again. n/t
This is the EXIT POLL no one wants to touch.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-19-05 08:58 PM
Response to Reply #1
19. Correction: 2004 NEP: Dem 38/ Rep 35/ Indep 27: Kerry 50.69%, Bush 47.77%
Edited on Wed Jan-19-05 09:02 PM by TruthIsAll
The Party ID was 38/35, not 38/36.
This is the number they are fudging.

It makes a big difference.
Kerry wins with 50.69%, not 50.24%.

The odds are astronomical that Bush could end up with 50.73%. 
That's a 3 point move. 

2004 NEP: Dem 38/ Rep 35/ Indep 27: Kerry 50.69%, Bush 47.77% 
 
13,047 respondents,
randomly selected,
1.0% MOE


               HORIZONTAL		WEIGHTED		
PARTY ID	
     MIX	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Dem 	38%	9%	90%	1%	3.4%	34.2%	0.4%
Rep 	35%	92%	7%	0%	32.2%	2.5%	0.0%
Ind	27%	45%	52%	2%	12.2%	14.0%	0.5%
	100%				47.77%	50.69%	0.92%
				
Probability: Poll(47.77%) to vote (50.73%): 0.00000000329447

         ********* 1 in 303,538,508 ************

Prob = 1 - NORMDIST (.5073,.4777, .01/1.96, TRUE)



 
 
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-21-05 01:16 PM
Response to Reply #19
20. WTF! They are now saying it was 37/37/26?
Edited on Fri Jan-21-05 01:17 PM by TruthIsAll
All those new, young women voters were Repubs.
Sure.

The two KEY demographics have been fudged:

This is the truth:
Women voted 54% for Kerry.
Dems 38/ Rep 35 / Ind 27
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RaulVB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-09-05 09:56 PM
Response to Original message
2. Is just shameful...
The way they have manipulated the results of the last election.

They guy who stole it is seating in the White House just because the media helped him to remain there...

Unbelievable!
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DearAbby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-09-05 10:09 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Maybe were PAID to keep him there.
We have to find out, the Armstrong payoff is just the tip of this...It would explain their "coverage" of the election, and the polling data that was reported on Networks.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 08:21 AM
Response to Reply #2
6. The new voters were mostly young women for Kerry. n/t
.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 07:10 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. Kicking myself.
.
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Wilms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 01:43 PM
Response to Original message
7. Kick n/t
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 09:26 PM
Response to Original message
9. Got yer Rosetta Stone of vote results right here folks!
Step right up!
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 12:26 PM
Response to Original message
10. Kick.
:kick:
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 08:37 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. Thank bleever. Here's another one.
.
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 09:23 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. One what?
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 11:04 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Oh, wait...I think I'm
kicking this up.
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In Truth We Trust Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 10:34 PM
Response to Original message
13.  great work Truth! I always look forward to your posts friend!
<kick>
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-13-05 01:33 AM
Response to Original message
15. Checking to see if this has been refuted yet: mmm, nope, not yet.
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intensitymedia Donating Member (101 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-13-05 01:54 AM
Response to Reply #15
16. Hey Truth - you kick republican butt
don't mean to be crass, but your work is deeply appreciated by all of us here south of the equator

peace - but don't ever give up the struggle -

che de vera

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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-13-05 05:05 PM
Response to Original message
17. Kick.
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