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GWB's 1 Million New Florida Votes Found A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 07:25 PM
Original message

GWB's 1 Million New Florida Votes Found A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS


By Alastair Thompson - Co-Editor http://scoop.co.nz
(exclusively so far.. on DU..)

In an earlier thread I discussed the issue of Where Did * Suddenly Get 8 Million New Voters.... To recap this is important because:

"If you think about it , had the Bush Cheney campaign really signed up 8 million odd new republican voters... wouldn't they have been telling us about it for the past six months. Yelling it on the front page of every newspaper. Somewhere in the election statistics is the answer to a simple question. Where were Bush's 8 million new voters..-. find them and you find where this election was stolen."


I then proposed some vote hunting efforts. And started by looking at the nation as a whole, identifying where 80% of the new bush votes fell. Stage 2 of this process involves looking at a county level. And I have now done a similar analysis for Florida on a county by county basis.

This time as the raw data is a bit clunky. The data originally comes from CNN 2000 - and the Florida SoS website 2004.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/KerryVsBushInFLORID...
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/KerryVsBushInFLORID...

We really need to do this in the same way for the rest of the states that stand out in the initial analysis.

VOLUNTEERS TO DO THE SAME EXERCISE AS BELOW IN OTHER STATES... starting with Texas and Georgia... would be HUGELY appreciated. It is easy and useful even if we do not discover BBV fraud. At the very least we will create a map of where this election was lost. Please PM or post here if you do set out to do this as it would be sensible if we do not double up.

All up the following took me about three hours... including writing this up. It should be easier for others now we know what we are doing.

The findings are again very interesting and are summarised here

regards
alastair

******************


FINDINGS

INTRODUCTION
1. As we already know Bush gained 1,042,733 votes in Florida, more than 300,000 more than his next biggest gaining state Texas. As a percentage of his 2000 vote this represents a 36% increase. (compared to an average 17% increase over the entire nation)

2. Gore also made substantial gains in Florida in total 663,461 votes or a 23% increase.

3. Bush's majority after all this was 381,396 votes.

BIGGEST GAINS IN NUMERIC TERMS
4. The biggest single county contributions to Bush's gain came from Miam- Dade with 69,000 new votes (24% increase). This was closely followed by Duval with 68k (44% increase), Broward with 66k (37% increase), Hillsborough with 64k (35%), Palm Beach with 59k (39%) and Orange with 57k (42% increase).

5. The top six counties account for 382,000 votes in Bush's new vote tally or 37% of his total gains. The top ten account for 533,323 votes and 51% of his total gains.

TOUCH SCREEN USAGE & BUSH VOTE GAINS
6. With the exception of Duval and Orange counties four of the top six vote gain counties used Touch screen voting. It is notable howeveer that Duval and Orange both show higher levels of new Bush vote than the TS counties.

7. Three more of the top 10 bush vote gaining counties used Touch screens meaning 7 out of the top ten bush vote gaining counties used Touch Screens.

8. Overall TS counties in Florida account for 480,304 of bush's total vote increase.

BIGGEST GAINS IN % TERMS
9. Three counties Osceola, Dixie & Sumter recorded bush gains of over 60%. A further eight Flagler, Columbia, Levy, Pasco, Wakulla, St. Johns, Gilchrist & Lake showed increases of over 50% over 2000.

10. Together these 11 counties account to 125,000 of bushes gained votes. Howevr most are small and four of them Osceola, Pasco, St. Johns and Lake are responsible for 95,600 of these gains.

BUSH VOTE GAINS IN KERRY VOTING COUNTIES
11. John Kerry won the vote in 11 counties.

12. Bush made nearly as much voting gains in these counties as he did overall 34% vs 36% for the state as a whole.

13. In all Bush gained 324,918 votes in Kerry counties. The big five were Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orange, Volusia. Between them providing 280,000 new bush votes.

******************


OVERALL COMMENTS

I had wondered whether I might find a bigger spread of vote gains across the state. I.E. that the vote gains would be fairly clearly located in some distinct locations. However that is not the case. And in the circumstances that is not surprising as there was such a huge number of new bush votes if they were spread less thinly they would stand out even more than they do.

The exception to this rule is the county of Gables which did not show any significant increase in Bush vote. I would be interested to know why this is.

Overall there is an incredibly strong swing shown in these results to Bush. I am not certain if such a swing has a precedent in American voting history. It certainly doesn't in British, Australian or NZ political history to my knowledge.

It is more than a little odd that there are such large voting gains by bush in several of the large Kerry leaning counties. Does anyone have an explanation for this.

Finally there is as expected a clear correlation between touch screens and large bush vote gains in numeric terms.

This is significant because if vote shaving were taking place that is votes being taken from Kerry and Given to bush inside these machines (but keeping the overall turnout numbers correct) then the effect on the final result of the gains experienced in these counties by bush is multiplied by two that is if you take one votes off Bush and it to Kerry then Kerry is two votes closer to Bush in the horse race.

If only half of the bush gains in the TS counties (480,000 votes) are a result of vote shaving then that alone would be enough to turn this result around.

******************


WHAT NEXT

Several counties stand out from this analysis for further attention. Ideally we now need some on the ground comment from these counties plus precinct by precinct results.

Firstly Osceola and Pasco show huge % gains and considerable numeric gains for Bush. Who was running the republican GOTV campaign in these counties?

If these results are not a result of vote tampering then the GOTV operatives ought to be writing books about how to motivate a political base and running seminars. All political operatives have something to learn from these people.

Secondly Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orange, Volusia are all large Kerry voting counties that showed huge gains in bush votes. Why? Again who was running the GOTV campaigns. If someone in the media could track down the republican operatives in these areas and get an account of how they achieved this coup it would be more than valuable. Alternatively there must be Dem activists in these counties that know what happened on the ground.

There is much more that deserves looking at. In my view any of the states that showed an over 40% in Bush votes ought to be providing an explanation.

These are

Osceola, Dixie, Sumter, Flagler, Columbia, Levy, Pasco, Wakulla, St. Johns, Gilchrist, Lake, Clay, Washington, Marion, Lafayette, Liberty, Union, Nassau, Duval, Walton, Seminole, Santa Rosa, Orange, Franklin, Manatee, Alachua, Bradford, Suwannee, Palm Beach.

And that's enough for now

******************


The following is is just a small part of the spread sheet but shows where 80% of the new bush votes came from.

--------- --|--2004 --|--2000 --|--Difference --|--% Incr --|--TS --|--Cumulative Gain --|--
County --|--Bush --|--Bush --|--
Broward --|--243118 --|--177279 --|--65839 --|--37% --|--TS --|--65839 --|--6%
Miami-Dade --|--358613 --|--289456 --|--69157 --|--24% --|--TS --|--134996 --|--13%
Duval --|--219251 --|--152082 --|--67169 --|--44% --|-- --|--202165 --|--19%
Hillsborough --|--244606 --|--180713 --|--63893 --|--35% --|--TS --|--266058 --|--26%
Palm Beach --|--211894 --|--152846 --|--59048 --|--39% --|--TS --|--325106 --|--31%
Orange --|--191389 --|--134476 --|--56913 --|--42% --|-- --|--382019 --|--37%
Pinellas --|--225627 --|--184884 --|--40743 --|--22% --|--TS --|--422762 --|--41%
Lee --|--144414 --|--106123 --|--38291 --|--36% --|--TS --|--461053 --|--44%
Brevard --|--152838 --|--115185 --|--37653 --|--33% --|-- --|--498706 --|--48%
Pasco --|--103198 --|--68581 --|--34617 --|--50% --|--TS --|--533323 --|--51%
Polk --|--123532 --|--90101 --|--33431 --|--37% --|-- --|--566754 --|--54%
Seminole --|--108126 --|--75293 --|--32833 --|--44% --|-- --|--599587 --|--57%
Volusia --|--111544 --|--82214 --|--29330 --|--36% --|-- --|--628917 --|--60%
Marion --|--81267 --|--55135 --|--26132 --|--47% --|-- --|--655049 --|--63%
Lake --|--74382 --|--49963 --|--24419 --|--49% --|--TS --|--679468 --|--65%
Manatee --|--81272 --|--57948 --|--23324 --|--40% --|-- --|--702792 --|--67%
Collier --|--83485 --|--60426 --|--23059 --|--38% --|--TS --|--725851 --|--70%
Sarasota --|--104630 --|--83100 --|--21530 --|--26% --|--TS --|--747381 --|--72%
Escambia --|--93367 --|--73029 --|--20338 --|--28% --|-- --|--767719 --|--74%
Clay --|--61881 --|--41745 --|--20136 --|--48% --|-- --|--787855 --|--76%
St. Johns --|--59178 --|--39497 --|--19681 --|--50% --|-- --|--807536 --|--77%
Okaloosa --|--69654 --|--52043 --|--17611 --|--34% --|-- --|--825147 --|--79%
Osceola --|--43108 --|--26216 --|--16892 --|--64% --|-- --|--842039 --|--81%



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hedda_foil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 07:37 PM
Response to Original message
1. Wow! Bless you, Alastair!
This is a fantastic analysis.

hedda
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pleiku52cab Donating Member (674 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 07:45 PM
Response to Original message
2. Now you know why the repugs
some years ago pushed through the amendment that made the counties' commissioners in the voting process (sorry - can't remember their official title) an appointed position (by the Governor) in stead of an elected position as it had been in earlier years. They were the ones who put up all the roadblocks to us trying to get paper verification added to our EVMs
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pleiku52cab Donating Member (674 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 07:46 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. ps...I live in Sarasota Co. Florida
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George_S Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 07:51 PM
Response to Original message
4. What about this?
http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm

Doesn't it appear the op-scan machine were really at fault?
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LiberalMandrake Donating Member (52 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 08:06 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. You forgot that people don't believe in statistics. Unless they were creat
You forgot that people don't believe in statistics. Unless they were created with a computer ...
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 08:22 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. This is a very neat summary of what this page shows....
Edited on Thu Nov-04-04 08:31 PM by althecat
SOURCE http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Credit to AnIndependentTexan


e-machine

reg rep: 2,050,619
exp turnout for reg rep: 1,435,385
reg rep who voted: 1,845,876
% turnout: 90%

reg dem: 2,280,374
exp turnout for reg dem: 1,567,297
reg dem who voted: 1,982,210
% turnout: 86.9%


optical scanning:

reg rep: 1,841,873
exp turnout for reg rep: 1,428,220
reg rep who voted: 1,950,213
% turnout: 105.88%

reg dem: 1,980,875
exp turnout for reg dem: 1,503,404
reg dem who voted: 1,445,675
% turnout: 72.98%
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 08:26 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. How that stuff fits together with the analysis above...
My theory based on this research and on my own research above about where the new bush votes fell (see the results forum) is this..

In Optiscan counties.. the vote was padded... i.e. as you see more votes recorded than make sense. No idea how but it was padded.... but that is what it looks like - some of these counties recorded a 64% increase in the republican vote remember.

Meanwhile I think the e-machine vote is also bogus.

In the e-machine counties vote was shaved from democrats and given to republicans. How credible is a 90% repug turnout in the e-voting counties? Remember these counties are mostly big heavily democratic counties. OTOH... a 100+ % dem turnout in these counties may have been credible given that there was such a big GOTV campaign running.
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pschoeb Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 08:46 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. althecat, there are some problems with the ustogether anlaysis
Edited on Thu Nov-04-04 08:54 PM by pschoeb
The projected vote is based on registration not historical data, these small counties have Harry Byrd Democrats, when you analyse the historical data, the counties that seem strangly scewed fall in line with historical voting in these counties, see my two posts in this thread for more. I take as an example Liberty county historical voting data from presidential elections since 1988, I also have links to full county data for Presidential elections in Florida from 1988-2000.
someone should reevaluate that projection based on historical data, and most discrepencies should disappear.

See posts 16 19 and 22
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 09:40 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. Perhaps.. but you will still get extraordinarily high turnout numbers...
... and that is the bit I do not necessarily beleive. Plus of course this is not actually my research and to be honest I do not really understand it that well.

al
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Chili Donating Member (832 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 09:06 PM
Response to Original message
9. I have a question...
Here in Ohio, we have to have voter registration cards and sign a register book with our matching names before we can vote. In other words, there has to be a name to match each vote. I would think that it's possible to pinpoint any fraud when there's a paper ballot at least in this state (and I'm hoping that something can come of that premise here in this state). Does Florida need similar proof of voter and vote? Because even an evoting machine needs to be able to match the number of valid voter names to the votes - otherwise, what's the point? Isn't there a way to do this? Aren't ballots and voter registers public record?
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 09:39 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. There are no paper records with electronic machines.
That is the problem. There probably are records that record how many people voted... but I would think that is about it.
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LiberalFighter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 11:35 PM
Response to Reply #9
14. Is there a member from both parties at each polling place?
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Hog lover Donating Member (411 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 01:41 AM
Response to Reply #9
18. Don't know the answer - but here's an idea
What if you could get a copy of the register where voters sign in before voting in one of the suspect precincts? If voters are registered by party, a phone survey could be done to Democratic voters to ask who they voted for in the Presidential race. You could assume that registered Republicans voted for Bush. Sure, some people aren't going to tell you how they voted, but maybe you could get enough information to give you an indication of whether the official tally of Bush voters is possible. You could explain that you are doing an informal private investigation of the accuracy of the count. Naturally, you would want to make sure none of this violates any law there. Big job, but if confined to one precinct at first, might be doable.

Any comments?
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Chili Donating Member (832 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 03:08 AM
Response to Reply #18
19. yes... that's what I kinda had in mind for Florida
...where the touch screen machines reign supreme. But in Ohio, we could use that voter list to match voters to their ballots, correct? My ballot had a number, which was printed next to my name...

For Florida: does a sworn affadavit stating for whom you voted hold any legality? Can it be used as evidence of the voter's will? Just like a ballot with a hanging chad?
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Eloriel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 09:59 PM
Response to Reply #9
21. We are supposed to have SECRET Ballots
Because even an evoting machine needs to be able to match the number of valid voter names to the votes - otherwise, what's the point?

No, and in fact, according to computer experts the very fact that our ballots are supposed to be secret is one of the factors that contributes to the vulnerability of electronic voting machines.

That said, there's some indication that the machines are doing it anyway (matching voters with their votes). And you can expect more of this as the voter registration rolls become more computerized state-wide and especially by the same vendors as produce the machines.

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notadmblnd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 10:04 PM
Response to Original message
12. Are your stats from this site?
Edited on Thu Nov-04-04 10:04 PM by notadmblnd
this is very well laid out for Fla. I don't know if they have done any other states. If you haven't seen this before now, perhaps it will help?

on edit: it woldn't hurt to provide the link.

http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 10:06 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. No the statistics come direct from source... CNN and SoS
That link is interesting but contains a different kind of analysis than mine.
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 01:23 AM
Response to Original message
15. What no volunteers!!! WE NEED STATS FOR TEXAS and OHIO
Someone is already doing Georgia...
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 01:27 AM
Response to Original message
16. There was no Republican gain in registrations

I've been following the registrations for a year. The Republicans had a big push early, after 2000, but the Democracts caught up. By election day, they were relatively even in new registrations.

If the Republicans are claiming to have suddenly found 1 million more new registered voters than the Democrats then something is wrong.

Are they claiming a million MORE than Democrats or just a million?

How many did the Democrats register?
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 08:12 PM
Response to Reply #16
20. This thread is all about Florida alone.. where * got 1 million new voters
No idea about registrations...

al
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Eloriel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 10:04 PM
Response to Reply #16
22. That's interesting -- do you have the supporting documentation
for that? In fact, it's downright mesmerizing. Have you started your own thread (since -- humph -- Al thinks this is OT to his thread)? or will you?
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 09:15 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. humph indeed!!!
Not at all... I found the post very interesting as you did Eloriel. And I too would be interested in evidence of it... Sorry if I sounded grumpy!!
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blurp Donating Member (769 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 01:35 AM
Response to Original message
17. Mel Martinez helped Bush bring in Hispanic voters

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Unforgiven Donating Member (613 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:25 PM
Response to Original message
24. Pasco
Edited on Sat Nov-06-04 10:26 PM by Unforgiven
Pasco checking in, what do you need from this county as far as information, we will be making public record requests this week from S.O.E. Kurt Browning.
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oldmanpeacenik Donating Member (69 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:57 PM
Response to Original message
25. Maybe I'm missing something but....
Doesn't all this talk of new registered Repubs versus new registered Dems leave out the Independents or Unaffiliateds? I ask because I've almost always been registered as an Independent--seems to keep me from getting the phone calls during dinner and the piles and piles of junk mail.
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DuaneBidoux Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:05 PM
Response to Original message
26. The Big Bush gains in these heavily Democratic (REAL Democrats)
districts I find the hardest of all to believe. Could it be the Cuban vote?

In all Bush gained 324,918 votes in Kerry counties. The big five were Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orange, Volusia. Between them providing 280,000 new bush votes.

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