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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-30-04 05:56 PM
Original message
New nationwide exit poll at exitpollz.org.
Sorry if this is a dupe. Here's the link: http://www.exitpollz.org/CNN_national2.htm
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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-30-04 05:59 PM
Response to Original message
1. kick
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-30-04 10:04 PM
Response to Reply #1
11. SMOKING GUN ? THE CNN NATIONAL EXIT POLLS PROVE KERRY WON!
Edited on Thu Dec-30-04 10:05 PM by TruthIsAll
http://www.exitpollz.org/CNN_national2.htm

Am I reading this correctly?
If I am, we have the SMOKING GUN:

1) 59% of the 17% who did NOT vote in 2000 but who did in 2004 voted for Kerry. Just 39% for Bush.

2) 65% of those who did NOT vote for Bush or Gore in 2000 voted for Kerry. Just 13% for Bush and 16% for Nader.

3) 91% of those who voted for Gore, voted for Kerry.
4) 90% of those who voted for Bush in 2000, voted for Bush in 2004.



PRESIDENTIAL VOTE IN 2000
........ BUSH KERRY NADER
TOTAL 2004 2000 2004 2004

DidNotVte (17%) 39% n/a 59% 1%

Gore (38%) 8% n/a 91% 1%

Bush (41%) 90% n/a 9% 0%

Other (4%) 13% n/a 65% 16%



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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-30-04 10:06 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. Yep, and look at the effect of the Bin Laden tape. It helped Kerry.
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Darkhawk32 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-30-04 06:02 PM
Response to Original message
2. Yup, says it all... only way Bush could've won was a 3rd sex...
was discovered!
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latteromden Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-30-04 11:52 PM
Response to Reply #2
19. Welllll, technically, it doesn't take into account the people who consider
themselves neither male nor female... but lord knows there's no way they voted for Bush! :)
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Obviousman Donating Member (927 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-30-04 06:08 PM
Response to Original message
3. Were these the original exit polls?
Edited on Thu Dec-30-04 06:08 PM by Obviousman
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Viva_La_Revolution Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-30-04 06:09 PM
Response to Original message
4. so, we add the male and female votes for *....
51 + 45 and divide by 2 = 48
and for Kerry
47 + 54 and divide by 2 = 50.5
Kerry wins!!

This is my world Bitch! LOL!


:bounce: :bounce: :bounce:
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loudsue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-30-04 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. That matches the pre-election poll numbers pretty closely,
and the sum of the State numbers on the "original, unscrubbed" exit polls.

Makes ya go 'hmmmmm'!

:kick: :kick:
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tritsofme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-30-04 09:26 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. Which preelection poll numbers?
Edited on Thu Dec-30-04 09:27 PM by tritsofme
In last 50 national polls conducted before the election, Kerry only led in 6.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-30-04 10:26 PM
Response to Reply #9
13. Not true. I will give you a link.
Edited on Thu Dec-30-04 10:28 PM by TruthIsAll
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tritsofme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-30-04 10:53 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. Check it out here:
Poll Date Bush/
Cheney Kerry/
Edwards Spread
RCP Average 10/27 - 11/1 48.9% 46.9% Bush +2.0
GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/31 - 11/1 50% 46% Bush +4
Rasmussen (3,000 LV) 10/30 - 11/1 50.2% 48.5% Bush +1.7
TIPP (936 LV) 10/30 - 11/1 46.9% 44.3% Bush +2.6
FOX News (1200 LV) 10/30 - 10/31 46% 48% Kerry +2
CNN/USAT/Gallup (1573 LV) 10/29 - 10/31 49% 47% Bush +2
CBS/NY Times (643 LV) 10/28 - 10/30 50% 47% Bush +3
ARG (1258 LV) 10/28 - 10/30 48% 49% Kerry +1
Newsweek (882 LV) 10/27 - 10/29 51% 45% Bush +6
Battleground (1000 LV) 10/25 - 10/28 51% 46% Bush +5
CNN/USAT/Gallup (1195 LV) 10/22 - 10/24 52% 46% Bush +6
Los Angeles Times (881 LV) 10/21 - 10/24 49% 48% Bush +1
Newsweek (880 LV) 10/21 - 10/22 48% 47% Bush +1
Time (803 LV) 10/19 - 10/21 52% 47% Bush +5
GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/18 - 10/21 49% 45% Bush +4
Rasmussen (3,000 LV) 10/17 - 10/19 48% 47% Bush +1
FOX News (1000 LV) 10/17 - 10/18 48% 43% Bush +5
CBS News (678 LV) 10/14 - 10/17 47% 46% Bush +1
CNN/USAT/Gallup (788 LV) 10/14 - 10/16 52% 44% Bush +8
Time (865 LV w/leaners) 10/14 - 10/15 48% 48% TIE
Newsweek (LV) 10/14 - 10/15 50% 45% Bush +5
GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/11 - 10/14 49% 46% Bush +3
CBS News (760 LV) 10/9 - 10/11 47% 46% Bush +1
ICR (763 LV) 10/9 - 10/11 49% 46% Bush +3
CNN/USAT/Gallup (793 LV) 10/9 - 10/10 48% 50% Kerry +2
Rasmussen (3,000 LV) 10/7 - 10/9 50% 46% Bush +4
Time (886 LV w/leaners) 10/6 - 10/7 47% 46% Bush +1
GW/Battleground (1250 LV) 10/3 - 10/7 49% 46% Bush +3
Fox News (1000 LV) 10/3 - 10/4 48% 45% Bush +3
ICR (762 LV)** 10/1 - 10/5 51% 46% Bush +5
ARG (800 LV) 10/2 - 10/4 46% 47% Kerry +1
CBS/NYT (561 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 48% 47% Bush +1
Zogby (1036 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 46% 45% Bush +1
CNN/USAT/Gallup (772 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 49% 49% TIE
Newsweek (1013 RV) 9/30 - 10/2 46% 49% Kerry +3
Battleground (1000 LV) 9/27 - 9/30 51% 44% Bush +7
LA Times (1100 LV) 9/25 - 9/28 51% 46% Bush +5
CNN/USAT/Gallup (758 LV) 9/24 - 9/26 52% 44% Bush +8
IBD/TIPP (649 LV) 9/22 - 9/27 45% 46% Kerry +1
Time (877 LV) 9/21 - 9/23 49% 43% Bush +6
FOX News (1000 LV) 9/21 - 9/22 45% 43% Bush +2
Battleground (1000 LV) 9/20 - 9/23 50% 45% Bush +5
CBS News (931 LV) 9/20 - 9/22 50% 41% Bush +9
Zogby (1066 LV) 9/17 - 9/19 47% 44% Bush +3
IBD/TIPP (650 LV) 9/14 - 9/18 46% 43% Bush +3
CNN/USAT/Gallup (767 LV) 9/13 - 9/15 55% 42% Bush +13
CBS News (1088 RV) 9/12 - 9/16 50% 42% Bush +8
Battleground (1000 LV) 9/12 - 9/15 49% 45% Bush +4
IBD/TIPP (674 LV) 9/7 - 9/12 47% 47% TIE
Newsweek (1003 RV) 9/9 - 9/10 50% 45% Bush +5
Zogby (1018 LV) 9/8 - 9/9 47% 45% Bush +2
Time (857 LV) 9/7 - 9/9 54% 42% Bush +12

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html
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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-30-04 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #14
17. There were lots of discussions about the polls prior to the election.
The one saliant point was understanding the population sampled. It was noted on more than a few occaisions that:

(1) Registered Republicans were over sampled.
(2) Only people with landlines were used.....leaving a huge unsampled population of people who only have cellphones.

Frankly, I think the pre-election polls were cooked to give Bush the best possible position going into the election. It made it a lot easier to steal.
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tritsofme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-30-04 11:40 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. I'm aware of what was said about polling
before the election, and I think both points you mentioned were overblown.

I have always believed that a random sample would yield a picture of the electorate that was representative.

Pegging party identification to four year old exit polls has never made sense to me, and whether you look at the data in the link above, or the actual results that are on the internet today, you see an increase in Republican party ID.

I always thought the cell phone only voter phenomenon in this election was overblown, but in the future that may well pose a problem.

How deep does this conspiracy have to go that all major pollsters are now implicated?
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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-31-04 12:13 AM
Response to Reply #18
22. Conspiracy?
Edited on Fri Dec-31-04 12:14 AM by Old and In the Way
I'm talking about a structural flaw in the methodology.

But if you poll a higher % of Republicans, surprise!, you get results that are biased in Republican's favor. And cell phones are definitely an issue. Poor and young voters are more likely to have cellphones than landlines....and I think those would be demographics that'd be significantly in Kerry's column.

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tritsofme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-31-04 12:29 AM
Response to Reply #22
23. You said:
Frankly, I think the pre-election polls were cooked to give Bush the best possible position going into the election. It made it a lot easier to steal.

If the sample of a poll is truly random, how could you poll a higher number of Republicans?

I really think the percentage of cell phone only voters in this election was insignificant enough so it did not have a big effect on polls.
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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-31-04 01:10 AM
Response to Reply #23
24. You got me.
OK, I do suspect just about any poll that's commissioned for the corporate Republican media.

If the sample of a poll is truly random, how could you poll a higher number of Republicans?

Exactly, the poll isn't random, if they're polling more registered Republicans...because we know that there are more registered Democrats. You can poll for whatever result you want if your intent is to push a particular political agenda.

In order to steal an election, you obviously need to cook the polls. It probably wouldn't work well to have Kerry winning by 10%, then having Bush come from nowhere to win on Election Day. Takes a lot of work, but when you have GE, Disney and NewsCorp in your corner, you have a fighting chance of pulling it off.

We'll have to disagree about the cellphone issue. I don't have the facts to back my position and neither do you.
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tritsofme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-31-04 01:29 AM
Response to Reply #24
25. A conspiracy so large
Edited on Fri Dec-31-04 01:30 AM by tritsofme
as to include nearly all public opinion pollsters in the nation, wouldn't remain a secret very long.

As I pointed out, of the final 50 public opinion polls commissioned, only 6 showed Kerry leading.

That would require a lot of cooking, and I don't think an organization like Pew, that was one of the best pollsters in terms of accuracy in this election, could be bought off so easily.

As to cell phones, I don't want you to think that I discount their effects on polls entirely, I just don't believe that they had much of an effect this year, while in future election cycles their impact will be much greater, but as to this year we will have to agree to disagree.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-31-04 01:54 AM
Response to Reply #14
26. All LVs. Its the RVs that you want. n/t
I have given you the final (mostly RV graph) of 18 SEPARATE pollsters.

My numbers are right.
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tritsofme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-31-04 03:02 AM
Response to Reply #26
30. I didn't realize 100% of registered voters
turned out on election day.
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Darkhawk32 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-30-04 06:16 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. Actually.... It would be a bit better....
Kerry

Men: 0.47*0.46 = .2162 = 21.62%
Women: 0.54*0.54 = .2916 = 29.16%
Total: 21.62+29.16=50.78%

Bush

Men: 0.51*0.46 = 0.2346 = 23.46%
Women: 0.54*0.45 = 0.2430 = 24.30%
Total: 23.46+24.30% = 47.76%

Kerry's Win: 50.78-47.76= 3.02%

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idiosyncratic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-30-04 09:50 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. Thanks for that. I had no way to figure out those numbers.
I flunked college algebra twice . . . it's a wonder I ever graduated.

Math :dunce:
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Viva_La_Revolution Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-31-04 12:30 PM
Response to Reply #6
32. Thanks for the detail.....
Math was never my forte' :P
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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-30-04 08:26 PM
Response to Original message
7. kick
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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-30-04 08:56 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. kick
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sepia_steel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-30-04 11:01 PM
Response to Reply #8
15. There is no way these numbers are wrong
This is exactly what people said and this is exactly the kind of vote results we should have had. Kerry won easily.
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davidgmills Donating Member (651 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-30-04 11:11 PM
Response to Original message
16. How did you find this link?
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KaliTracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-30-04 11:55 PM
Response to Original message
20. Ohio Stats -- Nader got 1% on most tallies. He wasn't on our ballot.
??
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Freddie Stubbs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-31-04 02:22 AM
Response to Reply #20
27. That certainly adds credibility
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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-31-04 02:33 AM
Response to Reply #20
29. Those numbers are rounded. He probably got about .6%.
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KaliTracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-31-04 12:02 AM
Response to Original message
21. I have some blocking on this site (graphics, etc.)
Edited on Fri Dec-31-04 12:05 AM by KaliTracy
that I don't on the CNN site, and the database doesn't work. (which is why I see Nader)

Also have this at the top of my page.

Not Found
The requested URL /CNN_national2_fichiers/aol.htm was not found on this server.

On this computer popups and Ad graphics etc. are blocked, so it could just be software related, though if it's a mirror of the original CNN stuff, not sure why it's not coming through


edit for adding more info
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bruised Donating Member (43 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 07:28 PM
Response to Reply #21
33. exitpollz.org
Broken links... Sorry about the broken links. I updated exitpollz.org to add this national poll while on vacation and the links got screwed up. All the links should be OK now.

Where do the data on exitpollz.org come form?
From lots of sources. It is an attempt to try and recover the exit poll data that was published on election night and then removed from public view.

How do we know that the data is OK?
As NEP are not helping -it is a question of slowly building credibility. The best way to show that exit poll documents are not forged - is to get as many documents from as many sources as possible which takes time. One example is that the CNN national exit poll that we have put on exitpollz seems to have identical figures to one of the pdf files from the scoop url mentioned earlier in this thread.
We will check it out. The work will take time and exit polls are just part of the effort to get to the truth.
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garybeck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-31-04 02:25 AM
Response to Original message
28. can you explain where this came from?
how was this info obtained? what date/time is it from? are we to believe this is the complete exit poll data?
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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-31-04 03:33 AM
Response to Reply #28
31. This is the original exit poll data from election day. I remember it...
extremely well.
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