Part IIIa. To believe Bush won the election, you must also believe...

[TruthIsAll]

Part IIIa. To believe that Bush won the election, you must also believe:

1. That his vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentage in FL by 4%. Based on 2846 individuals exit polled, the polling margin of error was 1.84%.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 1667.

2. That his vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentage in OH by 3%. Based on 1963 individuals exit polled, the polling margin of error was 2.21%.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 333.

3. That his vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentages in 41 out of 51 states.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 135,000.

4. That his vote tallies could exceed the margin of error in 16 states. Not one state vote tally exceeded the MOE for Kerry.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 13.5 Trillion.

5. That his vote tallies could exceed a 2% exit poll margin of error in 23 states.
The probability of this occurrence: as close to ZERO as you can get.

6. That of 88 documented touch screen incidents, 86 voters would see their vote for Kerry come up Bush - and only TWO from Bush to Kerry.
The probability of this occurrence: as close to ZERO as you can get.

7. That Mitofsky, with 25 years of experience, has lost his exit polling touch.

8. That by disputing the Ukrainian elections, the Bush administration would base its case on the accuracy of U.S. sponsored exit polling, while at the same time ignoring exit polls in the U.S. presidential election, which the media reported Kerry was winning handily.

9. That Bush could overcome Kerry’s 50.8% - 48.2% lead in the National Exit Poll Sub-sample (13,047 polled) and win the popular vote: 51.2% - 48.4%, a 3.0% increase from the exit poll to the vote tally, far beyond the 0.86% margin of error.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 282 Billion.

[sepia_steel]

1. TIA - Question.

May I post your "you must also believe's" at another board? If so how should I credit you? And where can I find your other "believe" lists?

[TruthIsAll]

2. Part I and II

Yes, here they are.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=1358806

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=1316010

[sepia_steel]

4. Thank you, but

did you want me to credit a name? Should I use "TruthIsAll"?

Thanks :)

[TruthIsAll]

5. Use TruthIsAll. n/t

.

[bleever]

3. I'm sorry TIA,

but I think my ability to believe there is any way * won this election is unable to go any lower.

But please keep hammering.

:thumbsup:

[TruthIsAll]

6. We need more mathematical evidence to pound home the case .

Let the powerful weight of the accumulated probabilities convince the media, politicians, naysayers, trolls and freepers that Kerry won and they should just get over it.

Pound them into submission with the MATHEMATICAL TRUTH.

[sepia_steel]

7. Thanks a lot, TIA!

This is evidence they will have to shut up and accept. Short of copping out with old dismissal trick, they cannot argue the truth.

[bleever]

8. They assumed the electorate was basically a hopeless mishmash,

and that competing pollsters and pundits were basically medicine men peering into the bubbling vat, using their own best juju to predict the unpredictable. Any conclusion whatsoever was plausible, anything could be defended by the right combination of theories and paradigms.

Thus, any engineered result would be undetectable in the steam rising from the cauldron of our electoral process.

But: no.

There's still math. 2+2 is still 4. And though math and sociology may seem a long way apart, in fact there's a very robust relationship between statistics and voting, and the vagaries of human values and fears can well be quantified if you ask people for their decisions, and do the math.

So we do.

To paraphrase: Sometimes the cards aren't worth a dime, if you can't lay them down.

But elections aren't poker; you've gotta lay down your cards. No bluffing. That's why we have recounts. And mathematicians.

[Calvinist Basset]

9. Wow.

May I also post your info elsewhere, with proper credit noted, of course?

[Peace Patriot]

10. Kick!

Awesome.

[mostly_lurking]

11. No one is listening to this anymore

The "exit poll" argument has run its course to no avail. Too many carefully monitored recounts, including the NH recount orchestrated by Ida Briggs, show that the anomalies in the exit polls really were there.

It is far easier to screw-up and/or rig an exit poll than it is the actual election in hundreds of thousands of precincts across the country. Evidently something along these lines happened here.

This argument can't even convince many of the members here, let alone the MSM or the American public. I cringe now every time it is brought up... it's really starting to make this forum look stupid.

I am not saying stop the fight or stop looking for fraud. All I am saying is that all these "40 million to 1", "25 million to 1", and "40 billion to 1", etc., etc., posts are childish. You're not going to convince anyone who matters with this. Rather, you destroy your own credibility and the credibility of others in this forum.

[Name removed]

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[mostly_lurking]

13. I didn't advise you to stop. n/t

[Name removed]

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[goclark]

17. Nervy freepers get on my nerves!

Keep it coming TIA.

If exit polls are good enough for the Ukraine they are sure good enough for the "High Tech Kings of The World"in the United States of Amerika.


I think the fact that Bush strongly validates his chosen candidate in the Ukraine using the exit polls speaks volumes.




:toast: for TIA

[DELUSIONAL]

14. Where do you get your stats?

I suspect that any post by Truth Is All gets some of the highest clicks and many of us copy his posts to send to others who don't have the time to read DU but who want to stay informed.

[me b zola]

19. Oh, I get it.

Speaking the truth destroys a persons credibility.
Working for justice destroys a persons credibility.
Having the intelligence & ability to understand mathematics destroys a persons credibility.

Those who have perpetrated this most evil of offenses against the American people, and Democracy as a whole, would love for us all to be such blind sheep.
Not me. No thanks. I may not have the mathematical abilities that TIA possesses, but I do have the ability to stand on the side of reason & justice.

Thank-you for all of your work, TIA.

[L. Coyote]

20. A voice of reason and a sign of objectivity. Hooray. n/t

[Name removed]

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[Cheswick2.0]

42. nonsense

Raw exit polls have worked just fine for predicting the winner early in the evening. Now suddenly we are getting this outcry about RAW poll data. I think there is a reason for that and it is not because the exit polls were wrong.

[Cheswick2.0]

41. I'm listening and I think TIA is a valuable asset to this forum

so I will thank you not to include me in your group of no bodies who are not listening to TIA.

[Fly by night]

15. Keep 'em coming -- looking forward to 3b

TIA,

I'm combining your posts right now into one document to distribute. I'm about to go edit your first three posts to remove any redundancies. I hope your next(and subsequent)posts will add new elements, rather than repeating former ones. I must say that this combined list is going to be one of three handouts I use from now on in private conversations and public meetings on election theft. The other two are the "20 Amazing facts" list which discusses the corrupt voting machine companies and their connections to the Busies and one I made up myself on what people can do to overthrow this coup. Thanks for everything you (and all the rest of us) continue to do.

This morning, I'll be writing the senators in Mississippi (my home state), Wyoming and New Mexico (places I've lived and love) and Tennessee (my home now) to ask that those senators stand up to fight the election theft also. I am aware that seven out of eight of these senators are Republican, but the only one of them who is hopeless is Frist (the most politically inept and unsophisticated senator that Tennessee has sent to Washington in my lifetime -- and that's saying a great deal). We all need to be writing every senator and every representative -- in words they can understand -- to fight this coup. And if I can, I will attach your list of what Busies must believe in order to accept this election theft (right before they drink the Kool-Aid.) Peace.

[TruthIsAll]

16. Fly by Night

The reason I keep doing them is that there always seems to be another aspect to analyze and quantify. And the more independent confirmations (ie state polls, national polls, 2000 exit poll), the better.

People know odds. They gamble: play cards, the lottery, go to the race track. If we can just convince people that there was a STRONG PROBABILITY OF FRAUD, then we have accomplished our goal. The next step is to act on it, which is what you are doing.

Thanks for your support. And good luck.

tia

[1democracy]

18. Does God play dice?

Odds of winning Powerball Grand prize with a single $1 bet according to http://www.justlottery.com/us/games.html is 1 in 120 million. (Select 5 numbers from a set of 53 and choose a Powerball number from a set of 42)

TIA's #4 odds are one in 13.5 trillion, so the odds of Bush's election results are one hundred thousand times less probable than winning Powerball with a single $1 bet...

Another way to look at it... odds of matching 5 numbers selected from a set of 53 to win $100,000 are 3 million to one. Bush would have won $100,000 TWICE by purchasing $1 ticket and guessing the 5 numbers.

I'm sure for those who have God's ear, any miracle must seem possible! But is Divine Intervention really more plausible than FRAUD? (Perhaps some of you statisticians can use other examples to put these odds in context...the odds of shooting at a target blindfolded and hitting a bullseye, the odds of getting hit by a meteor...etc)

[spooked911]

21. welcome to DU!

and good point!

:toast:

[newyawker99]

22. Hi 1democracy!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[vpigrad]

23. You need to stop arguing probability

If someone is so unbelievable stupid that they would vote for Bushie, they're not going to understand your post. I don't know what argument is a winning one, but I know that one is useless.

> The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 1667.

And so on. Those odds are based upon your sample being completely random. The problem is that the places that were polled weren't very random. I agree that Kerry won by a landslide, but that's not good math to assign a number like that.

[L. Coyote]

24. OR, in the alternative, you can believe just one very simple thing

You can believe, "there was something wrong with the non-random, incomplete, targeted exit polling extraplation and formulation inference mechanisms we know nothing about."

MoveOn.already

[euler]

31. Amen n/t

[Cheswick2.0]

43. yeah, we can believe that all of a sudden exit polls aren't reliable

florida 2000 and Ohio 2004, just the states bush had to win....... fat fucking chance.

[TexasLawyer]

25. Incredibly Persuasive

I think this list is very, very persuasive on the issue of probable fraud. Can I have your permission to use these stats in my flyers?
Thanks.

[greatscott15]

26. Too much Emphasis on Exit Polling

I think that there was massive vote fraud on Nov 2nd. However, I think we have hurt our cause by focusing on exit polls. An exit is poll is just like any other statistical tool. And we don't even have access to all the exit poll data. We must be careful to look at all the facts.

Considering the amount of fraud, our best bet is to "turn" individuals in the know. I think we are wasting time focusing on exit polls.

Keep the faith....

[Name removed]

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[DrDebug]

27. Thanks for making me smile TIA

After reading all those depressing stories, this is the first one which made me smile. Common sense is that we are right about this, isn't it. And it's just mind over matter :D

You are 1 in 292 million alright. Or should I say 1 in 6 billion ;)

[TexasLawyer]

28. kick n/t

[bleever]

32. This is an excellent summary of how "lucky" * is...

and how "unlucky" we all were.

Oh well, better luck next time...?

:shrug:

[dogindia]

33. kick.

[abbiehoff]

34. Exit polls are the only defense against black-boxes

Before the election, when I expressed doubts about the validity of voting on machines that left absolutely no trace of the voter's intent other than the bits accumulated inside the machine, I was assured that exit polls would prevent fraud from occurring. Now I'm supposed to believe that the invisible vote counting is correct and the exit polls are wrong? I don't think so. As far as I'm concerned, the purpose of exit polls is to keep the election honest. There seems to me to be a much greater probability that the vote was hacked than that the (original) exit polls were hacked. There is much more to be gained by hacking the vote.

[dogindia]

35. I agree

[Kota]

36. They won't release the exit poll data

because people would believe something was wrong.
If you want to convince the average person in this country that there was election fraud....start with the exit polls. Compare it to the Ukraine's. Most people don't know they were off so bad and MSM wants to keep it that way.

[keepthemhonest]

37. I guess they are all hiding something

OHIO,Blackwell,Bush, Exit Polls. That is why they are all silent and won't give up any more info, because then we will be armed moreso then we already are. I agree with TIA and his probablities. I am great in math but did not get into statistics that much, but we all know from looking at the exit polls, something is amiss.

[Kota]

38. Math is definitely not my strong suit and really has

to be to do the work TIA and so many others do. I read it and it tells me what I knew from the very beginning, The Exit Polls were right.

[dogindia]

39. I agree again.

I know I am being pesty.

[Tweed]

40. T&A

[Peace Patriot]

44. I love this series--I, II & III! KICK!!!

--"To believe Bush won, you have to believe..."

It's great to see it all laid out like this--the total picture of I, II & III. The impossible Exit Poll discrepancies then become one piece of evidence in a mountain of evidence that fraud was intended and fraud was accomplished.

I have often thought that if it were ONLY the Exit Polls, your average voter, viewer or reader might think, "Yeah, that's sure weird. Could be something wrong with the Exit Polls." He/she might not get to the impossible odds, which is the clincher. (Or they might well get to it--your average Joe or Jane is not that stupid, and calculates odds all the time in ordinary life, from Vegas gambling to lottery ticket wins to baseball odds to the odds of living to a ripe old age with all your faculties in tact.)

But when you COMBINE these near uniform pro-Bush discrepancies with a calculation of the odds, and look at everything that has been revealed--the odds on the touchscreen glitch almost always favoring Bush, the intense vote suppression aimed only at Democratic voters, the set-up for fraud (secret, proprietary source code, owned and controlled exclusively by big Bush donors), etc.--the current efforts in Ohio to hide evidence, and the previously stolen election, it gets to be overwhelming.

Determining Election Fraud is NOT just a scientific endeavor, and neither is it a problem that is exclusively a legal matter (can you prove "beyond a reasonable doubt"?). It is a POLITICAL matter, and one that goes to the heart of our democracy.

In this sense, it doesn't even matter who actually won. With so many out of whack numbers, and so much vote suppression, and so much NON-TRANSPARENCY, the election IS fraudulent. In fact, it is fraudulent on the non-transparency alone. Secret source code. Give me a break!

[dpbrown]

45. This series kicks serious ass

And whoever can put together this kind of logical analyses is worth dozens of low-post-count wannabes taunting people who really have got their stuff together.

Dan Brown
Saint Paul, Minnesota

[genieroze]

46. Crap can fly. eom