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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-24-04 12:25 PM
Original message
THESE ARE THE FACTS SO FAR
Edited on Fri Dec-24-04 01:20 PM by TruthIsAll
These are the facts so far (12/24/04):

1)There has been a concerted effort made by the media to hoodwink the general public into believing that exit polls are inaccurate, even though all historical evidence is to the contrary.

2) In the data which was downloaded by Simon and released by SCOOP at 12:20 am on Nov 3, 71,000 out of an anticipated 113,000 were already polled. That's 63% of the total sample. It was a large enough sample for us to assume it accurately represented the voting population. I explain why below.

3 Kerry was leading by 51-48% at 8PM, as most journalists were led to believe. Bush needed to win a very large majority of the 42,000 remaining to be polled to reverse the result - which is exactly what happened.

4) NPR/ Mitofsky has not released the raw data. Why? Could it be because it would confirm a Kerry win? Occam's razor would seem to apply in this case.

5) Cal-tech debunked their own initial polling analysis, after they learned that the data they used was not the data which Simon downloaded, but was in fact "massaged" around midnight. The data was "massaged" (that is an understatement) to supposedly "match" the recorded votes. Think about that for a minute. Polling data was manipulated because it did not agree with the votes. Does that make sense to you?

5) The fact that 2004 exit polling deviated far from the actual votes has never been explained. Let us use a little bit of statistics and some common sense here. Let's stipulate that exit polls have proven to be much more accurate than pre-election polls. That is a fact.

6) People may not know at the time they are polled prior to an election who they WILL vote for (they may not even vote), but they sure know who they HAVE voted for after the fact.

7) The MOE calculated below for various sample sizes are actually conservative since they are based on standard pre-election polling.

8) There were 71,000 respondents polled by 8PM on Nov 2.

9) Here is the MOE calculated for N respondents. The formula is very simple. The MOE= 1/sqrt(N), where N is the sample size.

The MOE is equal to 0.38% for the initial 71,000 poll sample (63% of the total). It is equal 0.30% for the full 113,000 polled.
That's an insignificant difference.

10) The average Gore 2000 exit poll deviation was -0.12%, well within the 0.30% MOE.The average Kerry deviation was -1.8%, way beyond the 0.38% MOE.

Here is related thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

The MOE= 1/sqrt(N), where N is the sample size.
Let's look at the MOE for sample size N:

N Sqrt(N) MOE
1,000 31.6 3.16%
1,500 38.7 2.58%
2,000 44.7 2.24%
3,000 54.8 1.83%
5,000 70.7 1.41%
10,000 100.0 1.00%
20,000 141.4 0.71%
30,000 173.2 0.58%
40,000 200.0 0.50%
50,000 223.6 0.45%
60,000 244.9 0.41%

71,000 266.5 0.38%
113,000 336.2 0.30%

THE 71,000 POLLED(63% OF THE TOTAL) IS AN OVERWHELMING SAMPLE SIZE. I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE REMAINING 42,000 TO DEVIATE FROM THE RESULTS BY ANYTHING MORE THAN A VERY SLIGHT AMOUNT.

THAT IS THE LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS.
THAT IS THE SAMPLING ERROR OF THE MEAN.
THAT IS STATISTICS 101.

YOU CAN SEE THE LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS CLEARLY TAKE EFFECT IN THE CALCULATED MOE, WHICH SHRINKS AS THE SAMPLE SIZE INCREASES.
THE MOE DROPS QUICKLY AS THE SAMPLE SIZE INCREASES FROM 1,000 TO 5,000, BUT THE MOE CONVERGES MORE AND MORE SLOWLY TO 0.38% AS WE GET TO 71,000 AND TO 0.30% FOR 113,000.

VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCURACY IS OBTAINED BY INCREASING THE SAMPLE SIZE FROM 71,000 TO 113,000.

WITH 71,000 POLLED, WE HAVE ALREADY CONVERGED ON THE POPULATION MEAN WITH ACCURACY TO WELL WITHIN ONE PERCENT. THE POPULATION MEAN CAN BE EXPECTED TO FALL WITHIN THE MOE 95% OF THE TIME.

WE HAVE ALREADY THE POINT OF NO RETURN AS FAR AS THE MARGIN OF ERROR IS CONCERNED.

ONCE WE HIT 71,000, ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN THE POLLING SAMPLE SIZE BECOMES A MOOT POINT - THE LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS HAS ALREADY TAKEN EFFECT.

As I have said many times:
I am not a pollster.
I am not a statistician.
I do have three degrees in mathematics.
I have developed quantitative programs for MANY years.
I am an Excel expert.
I always strive for the truth.
No one is paying me a dime for what I do.
I never expect to capitalize on this analysis.
I just want to present the facts to the best of my ability.
The truth about this election is being hidden from the public.
The media lock down and spin is tantamount to treason.

I have made a few minor mistakes in the initial probability calculations, but they were not that far off and were corrected as soon as I found them.

No one has yet disputed the calculation model itself (Binomial distribution). Naysayers are only left to question the accuracy of exit polling. I have shown why 71,000 is an extremely large sample, nased on a sinple MOE calculation.

An analysis of 2000 exit poll data, compared to that of 2004, effectively renders the last ditch argument of the naysayers that exit polls are not accurate null and void.

We now have clear circumstantial evidence that the election has been massively tainted.

Finally, let me repeat what I have posted many times:

For 16 out of 51 states to deviate from the exit polls to the vote tallies beyond the MOE in favor of Bush (and none to Kerry), the odds of this occurring due to chance is

************** ONE out of 13.5 TRILLION *****************

Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy Hannukah.

God Bless America.


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Patsy Stone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-24-04 12:29 PM
Response to Original message
1. Thanks TIA
I love reading your posts. They truly make my head spin, since I am nowhere near a mathematician; but I do like logic, truth and reality. You seem to operate in the realms of all three.

Peace and all the best in 2005.

Thanks for all your hard work. :)
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-24-04 01:22 PM
Response to Reply #1
12. THE SMOKING EXIT POLL GRAPH: GORE 2000 (GOOD) VS. KERRY 2004 (BAD)
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KingoftheJungle Donating Member (355 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-24-04 12:31 PM
Response to Original message
2. Those are some pretty shitty odds
"ONE out of 13.5 TRILLION"

I think bush deserves a gold star at the very least. Or maybe a free meal at Carrows.
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madison2000 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-24-04 12:43 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. Yeah he's right up there with OJ Simpson
who accidentally bled all over the place including his ex-wife's house.
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cilla4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-24-04 12:33 PM
Response to Original message
3. Second that emotion
I wish I understood your calculations better, but...I do understand your conclusions. They look unimpeachable (pun intended...). I hope they bear out in and by the MSM before too long! You need to be interviewed by them!

Thanks for all your work.
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MadAsHellNewYorker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-24-04 12:38 PM
Response to Original message
4. Always amazing work TIA!
Edited on Fri Dec-24-04 12:39 PM by MadAsHellNewYorker
You have helped keep me inspired to convince everyone i speak to about fraud. Thanks for all your work and great info.
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madison2000 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-24-04 12:42 PM
Response to Original message
5. Thank you for your amazing work
and yes its a huge sample.
Beleive me, we trust medications and lots of other things that are based on far smaller numbers to reflect the truth.
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quiet.american Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-24-04 12:49 PM
Response to Original message
7. Thanks for laying it out
These are terrific "just the facts" talking points to have handy when asked derisively why one thinks the election was stolen.
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MadLinguist Donating Member (167 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-24-04 01:04 PM
Response to Original message
8. NPR has been no media hero
But, isn't it the NEP (National Election Pool)that, along with Mitofsky, who has been holding back the 2004 exit poll data? Just a minor quibble. I am so glad to have this 2000 to 2004 comparison. It is a truly great effort. Your summary is indefeasible.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-24-04 01:07 PM
Response to Original message
9. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-24-04 01:15 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. Zogby is an expert also. I agree with Zogby.
I just crunch the numbers.
Sorry if you don't like the results.

Go ahead.
Refute the Math.
If you can, you will be the first to do so.

Otherwise, give it up.
Your spin is getting very old.
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-24-04 01:18 PM
Response to Original message
11. KICK!!! Thanks for much for all your work and for...
...explaining it so well here. This is going out to all my friends and relatives and other lists in the last week of 2004, a year that will live in infamy! I agree with your verdict of treason.

Merry Christmas and Happy Hannuka to you as well!
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pauldp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-24-04 01:31 PM
Response to Original message
13. Thank You Truth!
We must begin dealing with the MSM in a severe way starting Monday.
They thumbed their collective noses at Conyers request for the raw data. THE MSM IS THE ENEMY. There is no question of this.

On that that cheerful note - Happy Holidays Everybody!!
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SueZhope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-24-04 02:21 PM
Response to Original message
14. Thanks for your work & posts here at DU
I am an artist . Math is not something I am very good at,
however I get the overall bigger picture of what your presenting
and your analysis keeps leading to one conclusion
FRAUD FRAUD & more FRAUD

May you and your family have a wonderful happy holiday
May the new year bring the TRUTH to all .
Best to you !Cheers :toast:
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-24-04 02:27 PM
Response to Original message
15. Wishing you a very Merry Christmas, TIA, with deep gratitude
for your work, your dedication, and the fruits of your combined skills and passion.

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wiggs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 01:21 AM
Response to Original message
16. Kick...and Happy Holidays. nt
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Alizaryn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 01:37 AM
Response to Original message
17. Thanks Truth .. you have shared this with Arnebeck right?
God Bless us everyone.
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Cronus Protagonist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 01:45 AM
Response to Original message
18. Good work, TIA - that is the clearest message I've seen so far
The main problem is that everyone with an IQ to the left of the bell curve needs to hear it in one soundbyte. Nuances don't play well on TV, but hopefully, this will get the attention of people with the capability to understand and also the power to act on the information.

:kick:
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texpatriot2004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 02:32 AM
Response to Original message
19. So, the exit poll data that never needed a "massage" got
Edited on Sat Dec-25-04 02:35 AM by texpatriot2004
POUNDED, eh ? I am not a math person, however, common sense told me right away, there's a major problem here; the exit polling SHOULD NEVER BE CHANGED in any way to match the outcome. DUH?
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