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A READABLE, CONVINCING summary of Ohio vote fraud analyses

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IndyOp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 12:18 PM
Original message
A READABLE, CONVINCING summary of Ohio vote fraud analyses
Please consider sharing this post with media, government, friends & family!

So many good analyses of vote fraud in Ohio have been published online that it is hard to keep track of them and hard to understand how they all fit together. Also, some analyses are so packed full of numbers that it is very hard to get the gist. I teach Introductory Statistics at a university and this is my attempt to summarize the powerful evidence that is accumulating. It is still long, it still has lots of numbers and I hope it is helpful. I welcome your comments/corrections. (I know this is not complete. I will continue working on it tomorrow and will post again then).

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ES&S AND TRIAD IMPLICATED IN KERRY/CONNALLY DISCREPANCY

Ellen Connally, an African-American supreme court candidate running an underfunded race won a greater percentage of votes in her race than John Kerry did in his in many Ohio counties. Kerry, as the presidential candidate should have a higher percentage than Connally because most voters have the priority of casting a vote for president. Connally ran better than Kerry in areas where she wasn't known and did not campaign!

There were 15 Ohio counties where Connallys margin was 5,000 votes or more better than Kerrys unofficial results: Auglaize, Butler, Clermont, Darke, Delaware, Greene, Hamilton, Hancock, Licking, Mercer, Miami, Putnam, Shelby, Stark, and Warren. All 15 counties use voting systems by ES&S (10 counties) or by Triad (5 counties). Both companies have ties with the Republican party.

In the 15 counties in which the Connally margin is 5,000 better than Kerry's, Connally's margin exceeded Kerry's by 190,437 votes.

Primary reference: Kerry Supports Ohio Vote Investigation, Jackson says
by Steven Rosenfeld, November 28, 2004. <http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2004/94... >

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TRIAD MACHINES PRODUCE MORE BUSH VOTES THAN EXPECTED

Together Triad Governmental Systems, Inc. and Election Systems & Software (ES&S) count the votes in 80 out of the 88 counties in Ohio. Triad provides punch card machines and the computer program that tallies the punch-card ballots in the centralized counting systems used in 41 counties in Ohio. ES&S provides punch card, optical scan, and touchscreen machines to the most populous counties in Ohio.

A comparison of votes for Kerry (compared to Gore) indicates that in the 28 counties using punch card systems not manufactured by Triad, Kerry won 62,406 more votes than expected; in the 7 counties using electronic voting Kerry won 38,377 more Kerry votes than expected; and in the 12 counties using optical scan equipment, Kerry won 323 more votes than expected. Combined, Kerry won 101,506* more votes than expected in the 47 counties in Ohio that do not use Triad punch card machines, an average of 2,160 per county. In contrast, in the 41 counties using Triad punch card voting systems John Kerry got 13,369 votes fewer votes than expected, an average of 326 fewer per county.

If the Triad counties had voted (in comparison with 2000) similarly to all the other counties combined, there would have been a net of 2,486 extra Kerry votes per each of the 41 counties, providing a net Kerry gain of 101,926 extra net Kerry votes. And with the additional provisional votes that are up for grabs, that could easily put Kerry over the top, I would think.

Primary reference: <http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... >

(*This number may be wrong. If it is, it causes only a slight change in net Kerry gain from what is reported here).

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JOHN KERRY CONCEDED TOO SOON (Voter Suppression/Uncounted Provisionals)
Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D. November 16, 2004

The official Voter Turnout in Ohio is 5,574,476. Adding the 155,428 Provisional Ballots issued turnout was 5,729,904. The Total Votes Counted were 5,481,804. This leaves 248,100 votes uncounted.

http:/www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php... > // Also see Lynn Serpes article on the glaring disparity between between the white and black sections of Cuyahoga County in the numbers of people who were made to fill out provisional ballots even though they were registered to vote and were at the correct precinct <http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1208-31.htm >.>

Link to Phillips' complete analysis: <http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/uncounted.htm >
================================================

STEALING VOTES IN COLUMBUS (Voter Suppression)
Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D. November 23, 2004

The Free Press on Election Day posted a disturbing story, later confirmed by the Columbus Dispatch: Franklin County Board of Elections Director Matt Damschroder deliberately withheld voting machines from predominantly black Democratic wards in Columbus, and dispersed some of the machines to affluent suburbs in Franklin County. Damschroder is the former Executive Director of the Franklin County Republican Party.

Median voter turnout in precincts that voted for Bush was 60.56%, for Kerry median turnout was 50.78%. Voter turnout was over sixty percent in 54.5% of precincts that voted for Bush. By contrast, turnout was over sixty percent in only 16.5% of Kerry precincts.

Were voters not enthusiastic about voting for Kerry or is this pattern due to uneven distribution of voting machines? Kerry had a higher turnout where the polling places had enough voting machines. In the 38 wards in which the number of registered voters per voting machine was the lowest, 26 went for Kerry and the turnout was 55.85%. In the 36 wards in which the number of registered voters per voting machine was the highest (which include Democratic Party strongholds)all 36 wards went for Kerry and median turnout was only 46.25%.

I conclude that the withholding of voting machines from predominantly Democratic wards in the City of Columbus cost John Kerry upwards of 17,000 votes.

Link to Phillips' complete analysis: <http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/columbus.htm >
================================================

STEALING VOTES IN CLEVELAND (Vote Tally Inflation; Vote switching)
BY RICHARD HAYES PHILLIPS, Ph.D, NOVEMBER 18, 2004

Phillips' analysis of Cleveland precincts suggests that about 682 votes may have been shifted from the Kerry column to the third-party candidates (Badnarik and Peroutka) in 11 precincts.

Phillips estimates that 5,186 more votes should be Kerry's tally than appear in the reported vote totals for precincts with very low voter turnout. The reported voter turnout in 34 precincts was astonishly low for a presidential election (as low as 7.10%, many of the 34 precincts had turnouts around 30%). Phillips adopted 50% as an arbitrary estimate of the true voter turnout for the underreported precincts, and assumes that the proportions of the vote allotted are correct for the precincts. Phillips notes that there may be some correlation between vote suppression efforts (too few machines, etc) and the low voter turnout in these precincts.

In some cases there appear to have been wholesale shifts of votes from the Kerry column to the Bush column: By comparing Bush's performance in 2000 to his performance in 2004 and by assuming that the proportions of the vote alloted elsewhere in the ward are correct, Phillips estimates that at least 164 votes cast for Kerry were switched to Bush.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1060300>>

Link to Phillips' complete analysis: <http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/cleveland.htm >

================================================

OHIO TURNS WHITE, FALLS INTO UNDECIDED COLUMN (Vote Tally Inflation; Vote switching) by Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.

In 28 locations where returns ARE broken down into wards, the sum total of the votes cast in all the wards is less than the total reported for the location . For example, in Cleveland totalling the number of votes for each ward yeilds 165,578 votes, while the total number of votes reported is 214,902 (a discrepancy of 49,324 votes). Summing over all 28 locations the discrepancy is 214,193 votes.

In 11 locations where returns are not broken down into wards, the total votes cast are greater than the number of registered voters . In University Heights for example, there are 10,072 registered voters, and it was reported that 11,982 votes were cast - thus there were 1,910 more votes than registered voters. Summing over the 13 locations there appear to have been 26,416 more votes cast than there are registered voters.

In two cases, Solon and Strongsville, where returns are broken down into wards, the discrepancy is limited to a single ward each. Of the 7 wards in Solon, six have more registered voters than votes cast - only Ward 6 has more votes cast than voters. In Solon Ward 6 there were 4,300 votes cast while the ward only has 2,292 registered voters. Of the 4 wards in Strongsville, three wards have more registered voters than votes cast, only Ward 3 has more votes than voters). In Strongsville Ward 3 the total votes cast was 12,108 when the ward has only 7,806 registered voters.

In two cases, Mayfield Heights and Parma Heights, the total votes cast, while less than the number of registered voters, is so high 87.87% and 95.6%, respectively) as to cause a reasonable observer to question whether there was such a high turnout.

Link to Phillips' complete analysis: <http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/ohio.htm >

================================================

HACKING THE VOTE IN MIAMI COUNTY (Vote Tally Inflation; Vote switching)
Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.

Over 11,000 fewer votes were cast in 2004 than in 2000.

After 100% of precincts had been reported an additional 18,975 appeared in the final total later on election night. The proportion of votes to each candidate was the same before (Bush 65.80%) and after the 18,975 additional votes (Bush 65.77%).

Exceptionally high voter turnout? Once absentee votes were added to the totals 51,777 votes were counted for president. That is 20.86% higher than the 2000 vote total (even though population has grown by only 1.38% and the number of registered voters increased by 8.09%). For example, voter turnout in Concord South West was 98.55%.

Link to Phillips' complete analysis: <http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/miami.htm >
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Kellis Donating Member (663 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 01:10 PM
Response to Original message
1. ah-this is good onfo.
Some new stuff I can send out today.

Thank You!

:kick:
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 08:30 PM
Response to Reply #1
40. Probably the most signif. fraud pattern found so far is the "Default-Bush"
Probably the most significant widespread fraud patterns found so far are the touchscreen default set to Bush pattern seen in several counties in Ohio, New Mexico, and Florida(and other states).
Also the pattern of manipulation of undervote counts by optical scan equipment, such as seen in New Mexico. These were enough to shift the winner in New Mexico, perhaps in Ohio, and perhaps in Florida. They affected U.S. Senate races as well as President race.
www.flcv.com/fraudpat.html
But there were also other patterns of fraud important in Ohio, such as the many strange things they did to dilute the Kerry vote in urban counties like Cuyahoga. See RHP studies.
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For PaisAn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 09:47 AM
Response to Original message
2. Thanks for putting this together
n/t
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meganmonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 10:04 AM
Response to Original message
3. Good summary! THis one's going to my dad
a very smart and skeptical man. It took my mom, sister and I until about 1999 to turn him into a democrat, now maybe I can at least get him to take fraud seriously, if not become a true believer!
Thanks!
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-04 11:36 PM
Response to Original message
4. kick to the top! So this info. doesn't get lost.
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 03:26 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. another kick to the top for this timely info. n/t
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sepia_steel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 03:29 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. kick. Thanks!
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 01:50 AM
Response to Reply #5
13. another kick! Thanks!
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 06:47 AM
Response to Original message
7. "The Hacking of the Presidency 2004". Future best seller. n/t
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chorti Donating Member (104 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 11:30 AM
Response to Original message
8. Some of these are much stronger than others
Story #1 - Connally votes vs. Kerry votes. The Supreme Court race was non-partisan. You simply cannot compare a non-partisan race to a partisan race. Why did Connally get only 59% of votes in Cuyahoga? She is from there. By this logic, Republicans could argue that Bush was cheated out of votes in Cuyahoga County. This is not evidence of fraud.

Story #2 - Triad optical scan machines. Once they put this into percentages rather than raw numbers we can actually compare. Do we know if mainly rural counties used Triad? If so, this analysis is worthless. These folks need to get some meaningful numbers out there before this can be discussed.

Story #3 - Kerry conceeded too soon. Agreed. But not evidence of fraud.

Story #4 - Kerry votes lost in Columbus. Yes. This one flies, but I think better evidence is at: <http://www.indybay.org/news/2004/12/1708672.php >. I calculated 15,000 votes lost to Kerry which is very consistent with Phillips' 17,000.

Story #5 - Stealing votes in Cleveland. This is possible. There definitely are some strange numbers. But you can not always go by voter rolls in Cuyahoga. Many have not been purged of folks who have moved away or passed on. Voter registration total is equal to 102 percent of possible elegible voters in Cuyahoga.

There were a lot of messed up machine totals in Cuyahoga County. The best evidence points to multiple precinct voting sites where ballots for one precinct were (accidently?) used in the neighboring precinct, and candidate order varied precinct to precinct. See also my article from Nov. 10: <http://www.indybay.org/news/2004/11/1704733.php >.

Story #6 - Ohio Turns White. I have the precinct by precinct totals for Cuyahoga and I don't see these anomalies. I think that this is a carry-over from the absentee votes being wrongly allocated by ward and precinct in Cuyahoga, which has been cleared up. In terms of 89% or 95% turnout, it is possible. The county where I live had 89% turnout for the whole county! (And was 69% for Kerry.)

Story #7 - The increase in votes in Miami was consistent with other counties in Ohio and throughout the US. I'm not sure what the vote dump was - absentee votes? It is suspicious but the final vote tally is not so anomalous.

We do not yet have proof of fraud other than the ballot lockdowns. What we do have are: 1. Exits polls differ from final result. For example, the penultimate exit poll showed Hamilton County (Cincinnati) going for Kerry 50-49 but the final result was Bush 53-47. 2. Reports of Touch-screen machines "randomly" showing Bush when voter pressed Kerry, especially in Mahoning. This "callibration" error may have given Bush an extra 1 or 2 percent in the 7 touch-screen counties. I have not seen similar reports from Franklin, which also used touch-screen. 3. Error-ridden punch-card machines in Cuyahoga County and elsewhere probably cost Kerry 3,000 to 5,000 votes. 4. Clear case of voter suppression in Columbus (Franklin County) that should send someone to jail and probably cost Kerry 15,000 to 20,000 votes. 5. Other various forms of voter intimidation and suppression that are well-documented, including withholding voting machines near liberal arts colleges. 6. Cases of ballot lockdowns (Warren, Greene) or unauthorized voting machine inspection.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 12:46 PM
Response to Original message
9. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
HEAVYHEART Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 12:47 PM
Response to Original message
10. Thank you IndyOp!
:yourock:
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Old Mouse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 12:49 PM
Response to Original message
11. Thank you!
kick
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 12:50 PM
Response to Original message
12. This is great, thank you!!
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GetTheRightVote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 01:53 AM
Response to Reply #12
14. Thank you Indy, I will put it to good work
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 01:58 AM
Response to Original message
15. ...
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 04:40 AM
Response to Original message
16. Good night from Australia. Great job, everyone. n/t
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-16-04 11:07 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. kick so this doesn't get lost
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emlev Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-17-04 01:13 AM
Response to Original message
18. kick
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-17-04 03:13 AM
Response to Original message
19. a kick for into to possible "dialog" with freeper friends. :-) n/t
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-17-04 05:11 AM
Response to Original message
20. Thanks for this a fantastic piece of work... I would be keen to repost
... it on Scoop.

Cheers

Alastair
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-17-04 08:33 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. Great idea, Alastair. n/t
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-17-04 11:35 PM
Response to Original message
22. kick back to the top
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 12:12 AM
Response to Reply #22
23. kick
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 12:51 AM
Response to Reply #23
24. another kick for a very well done piece
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 02:12 AM
Response to Reply #24
25. another kick to the top
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 04:15 AM
Response to Reply #25
26. this forum has been on fire tonight! kick - again to the top
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 05:00 AM
Response to Original message
27. kick
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oscar111 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 07:15 AM
Response to Reply #27
28. moved
Edited on Sat Dec-18-04 07:24 AM by oscar111
xxxx
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oscar111 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 07:23 AM
Response to Reply #27
29. "Top 2O vote outrages" needed. A bubbling list with new replacing old.
see my archived thread
for samples.. all much shorter than the orig post here.

Each case needs to be about three lines only. Joe Citizen hasnt time to read the orig post.

DU needs a bubbling place to keep putting the better new cases when they appear.

We are nearly speechless to Joe Citizen because we are drownding in data.

Democratic Underground Forums - "Top 20 Vote Outrages" needed.BEST is lost in tidal wave of info.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 07:03 PM
Response to Reply #29
32. oscar111 - would "bubbling place" work in the Voting Issues forum?
Edited on Sat Dec-18-04 07:04 PM by Lil
re:
DU needs a bubbling place to keep putting the better new cases when they appear.

. . .or a group?
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mod mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 08:11 AM
Response to Original message
30. good summary
just emailed to the editor of local paper. how much longer can they with hold the story?
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SmokingJacket Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 09:59 AM
Response to Original message
31. Kick.
It happened.
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BamaBecky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 08:47 PM
Response to Original message
33. KICK
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 11:46 PM
Response to Original message
34. Big kick for IndyOp's work
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 02:06 AM
Response to Reply #34
35. kick to the top
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 02:53 AM
Response to Reply #35
36. kick
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 04:04 AM
Response to Reply #36
37. kick
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 05:38 PM
Response to Original message
38. "For example, voter turnout in Concord South West was 98.55%."
full of great info.
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Lil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 07:40 PM
Response to Reply #38
39. kick
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