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IndyOp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 08:08 PM
Original message
Triad machines produce 101,506 more Bush Votes than expected in Ohio
Triad machines produce 101,506 more Bush Votes than expected in Ohio

This was posted by EOTE in another thread, but hedda_foil says it is new to DU, so I think it deserves its own posting:

Triad machines produce more Bush Votes than expected

The following is an analysis done by my father, an epidemiologist at the FDA:

I decided to look at the punch card Ohio counties in more detail.

Like my other analysis, I looked at the difference in votes (in each county) from 2004 and what would have been expected if Kerry had obtained the same percentage of votes in the county as Gore had in 2000.

I also divided the counties up into four categories:
Electronic voting (7 counties)
Optical scan (12 counties)
Punch cards by Triad Government (41 counties)
Punch cards other (28 counties, mostly ES & S)

Here's what I found:

Electronic voting:
38,377 more Kerry votes than expected, average of 5,539 per county

Optical scan:
323 more Kerry votes than expected, average of 27 per county

Punch card other:
62,406 more Kerry votes than expected, average of 2,229 per county

Punch cards by Triad:
13,369 less Kerry votes than expected, average of 326 less per county

Total non-Triad:
101,506 more Kerry votes than expected, average of 2,160 per county

So, if the Triad counties had voted (in comparison with 2000) similarly to all the other counties combined, there would have been a net of 2,486 extra Kerry votes per each of the 41 counties, providing a net Kerry gain of 101,926 extra net Kerry votes. And with the additional provisional votes that are up for grabs, that could easily put Kerry over the top, I would think.

I don't know anything about the Triad government machines, or what is their potential for fraud. But what the above analysis means is that if massive election fraud took place in Ohio, it probably involved mostly the Triad government punch card machines.

Of course, there could have been fraud in other counties as well (If the exit polls were accurate that would mean Kerry winning Ohio by over 260,000 votes, which is a lot more than I calculated here.)

Hope this helps some.

<http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph ... >
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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 08:14 PM
Response to Original message
1. Can anyone explain how punch card tabulators work?
As old technology it seems to have escaped scrutiny, probably because the punch card themselves are evidence. As of yet the punch card evidence has not been examinesd so the perps may have thought it safe to meddle with the tabulation.

According to Dr. Doug Jones:

We can now formulate the basic counting categories that must be reported at every level in the count, from the precinct up to the highest level election authority.

At each level, the following totals must be reported:
a: ballots distributed
b: ballots rejected (including spoiled ballots)
c: ballots challenged
d: ballots voted
e: ballots unaccounted for

At any point a = b+c+d+e.

On receipt of a report, if this condition is not met, the report should be rejected.
On receipt of these numbers from a lower level in the hierarchy, the sum of the final four ballot counts should equal the number of ballots distributed. If this condition is not met, the counters at the lower level in the hierarchy have made an accounting mistake and should search for the source of their error.
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MarkusQ Donating Member (516 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 08:21 PM
Response to Original message
2. It's easy to rig things this way
Just don't give enough punch-card booths to Democratic precincts. Long lines limit the number of votes to (maximum voters per station per hour) x (number of machines) x (number of hours poll stays open).

You could have a million people wanting to vote, but if you only gave them one machine there would be only a few hundred votes.

--MarkusQ

P.S. I think your headline may be backwards
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IndyOp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 09:17 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. The title could say "fewer Kerry votes" or "more Bush votes"
though it should have said 101, 926 instead of 101,506 -- the conclusion is that Kerry should have 101,926 more votes in his tally than he does right now.

The problem could be ballot spoilage, or it could be the computer program that tallies the punch-card ballots in the centralized counting systems used in 41 counties in Ohio (see AnIndependentTexan's post below).

Also look at the REALLY spooky item about Triad machines in Sumter County, Ohio in 2000 (also in AnIndependentTexan's post below) --

"Sumter County voters cast 33,433 ballots in the 2000 general election, but only 30,671 registered a vote for president, an apparent undervote of 8.3 percent.

"I'm sure the problem is not with the cards. And, generally, people will vote correctly," said Vandyke.

Only 91.4 percent of the 7,486 Democratic primary ballots registered a vote for U.S. Senate this month, while 96.3 percent recorded a vote for the local sheriff's race and 94.6 percent registered for state auditor.

What do you think? :shrug:

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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 09:37 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. I am in OH so I am familiar with where Triad tabulators were used
to switch Kerry votes to Bush. They did not do it in counties that have dems. Urban counties for the most part used the larger company for tabulators which is ES&S. In those urban counties shorting of machines was a vote suppression tactic. While it is reprehensible we can't prove a negative and we will never be allowed to count the votes of those who did not vote because of machine shorting.

However the Kerry vote switching that macro and micro statistical analysis has revealed very cleverly occurred in mostly white suburban counties that most people assume to be GOP. While these counties are for the most part GOP leaning, it was not to the unrealistic extent that put Bush over in OH.
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MarkusQ Donating Member (516 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 09:50 PM
Response to Reply #9
13. Proving a positive
We don't have to prove a negative. Inequitable distribution of resources for voting is unconstitutional; doing so in an official capacity while simultaneously acting on behalf of one of the candidates is a crime.

Even if all of the suppressed voters were planning to vote for Bush, the crime has been committed and this can be proved.

--MarkusQ
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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 09:58 PM
Response to Reply #13
15. But that won't put votes in Kerry's column n/t
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MarkusQ Donating Member (516 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 10:27 PM
Response to Reply #15
20. My goal isn't to get Kerry in per se...
My goal isn't to get Kerry in per se but to get the scoundrels out. No single election is worth as much as democracy itself. I don't care who is president (I frankly don't care for either of them; I'm registered Republican but I voted for Badnarik) but I'll be damned if I'll stand by and see my country driven into the ground by a bunch of cheaters and crooks.

If we save Democracy now, we can always worry about who runs the country later.

--MarkusQ
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Roger_Otip Donating Member (187 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 09:51 PM
Response to Reply #9
14. so if triad was used in republican counties
they could argue that you would expect those counties to swing to bush anyway?
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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 09:59 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. exactly and when tthe Warren County story first broke lots of people
opined it was GOP land anyway.
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hedda_foil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 08:36 PM
Response to Original message
3. Triad's machines have an exceptionally high "spoilage" rate.
Put them in minority precincts, and you can rely on them to reject a whole lot of votes because the machine can't read them correctly. After that, you get into potential tabulation issues with the cards that actually do make it through.

You can "lose" lotsa votes this way. It's a very traditional form of vote fraud, though they played it for all it was worth in Ohio to try to make sure the * win was too big to ask for a recount.

They weren't expecting us to come knocking on the door with our 3rd party candidates and a couple of 527 organizations! It's outside of their playbook ... or at least it was.

BTW, PLEASE donate to the recount efforts. Help America Recount is trying to fund the entire recount effort in New Mexico ... and that's critical to making sure that the media is forced to focus on more than hanging chads.

http://www.helpamericarcount.org . It's a DU-inspired effort!



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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 09:41 PM
Response to Reply #3
11. Hiya Hedda, any stats on the placement of those Triad machines?
If they really were concentrated in certain areas, the difference might well be more than the 101,000 this analysis predicts.

Or should we go dig this info up?
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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 10:13 PM
Response to Reply #11
19. The urban OH counties that have African Americans are Cuyahoga,
Montgomery, Franklin, Hamilton, and a couple more up near Cleveland. Toledo and Akron counties.

It would seem that Triad serves counties that are for the most part white and not urban.

Triad counties:

1, oh,"ashtabula",103120,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"brown",43807,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"carroll",29599,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"clark",143351,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"clinton",41756,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"columbiana",111523,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"darke",52960,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"defiance",39054,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"fulton",42446,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"gallia",31398,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"greene",151257,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"guernsey",41362,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"harrison",15967,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"henry",29318,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"highland",41963,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"hocking",28644,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"holmes",40681,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"jackson",33074,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"logan",46411,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"lorain",291164,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"madison",40624,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"marion",66396,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"meigs",23242,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"mercer",40933,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"monroe",14927,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"montgomery",552187,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"morgan",14843,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"muskingum",85423,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"noble",14054,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"paulding",19665,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"perry",35074,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"pike",28194,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"portage",154870,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"preble",42417,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"putnam",34754,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"seneca",57734,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"union",43750,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"van wert",29277,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"warren",181743,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"


1, oh,"wood",123020,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"










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AnIndependentTexan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 08:39 PM
Response to Original message
4. this might be helpful
http://www.americanfreepress.net/html/vote_fraud.html


Rapp, the founder of Triad Governmental Systems, Inc. of Xenia, Ohio, wrote the computer program that tallies the punch-card ballots in the centralized counting systems used in 41 counties in Ohio. Rapp, whose sons now manage the family run company, is a generous supporter of the Republican Party and the presidential campaign of George W. Bush.

The second largest vendor of vote-counting machines in Ohio, in terms of the number of counties served, is Election Systems & Software (ES&S), a privately owned company based in Omaha.

Together ES&S and Triad GSI count the votes in 80 out of the 88 counties in Ohio. ES&S, however, manages the elections and counts the votes in the most populous counties of the state.

There were numerous problems with voting machines in Ohio, where Bush reputedly won by some 136,000 votes. Some voters had to wait until 3 a.m. to cast their ballots, and a computer error gave Bush 3,893 extra votes in one precinct in Franklin County.

------------------------------------------
oversees Greene Countys voter registration and tabulating systems

April 10, 2003

http://www.ysnews.com/stories/2003/april/041003_voting....

Dwayne A. Rapp, vice president of TRIAD Governmental Systems Inc., the Xenia business that oversees Greene Countys voter registration and tabulating systems, said that the push-button system does not represent a flamboyant change in the way people vote. Voting should be as simple as it was in previous elections, he said.

TRIAD personnel and Board of Elections officials will be in Yellow Springs on Election Day to monitor how the voting system works. Poll managers and poll workers will receive training before the election, Garman said.

------------------------------------------

A quote from Dwayne Rapp on a website making fun of pregnate chads in 2000

http://www.angelfire.com/wizard/linkpagemainwebsite/ele...

of Election Data Corp. "Counting those dimpled chads is definitely not right," Dwayne Rapp, vice president of Triad Governmental
------------------------------------------
Looks like they have a list of what venders were in what place

http://inn.globalfreepress.com/modules/news/article.php...

----------------------------------------
June 8 primary- read the full article on this one.

http://www.fairvote.org/righttovote/hargrove4.htm

The problems in Kershaw County paled compared to the labors that officials faced in Sumter County. Scott Vandyke, pastor of the East Dayton, Ohio, Church of Christ and a part-time elections assistant for Triad Governmental Systems of Xenia, Ohio, nearly half of the time had to repeat a run of computer cards because of bent ballots or tallies that didn't agree with precinct reports.

Sumter County voters cast 33,433 ballots in the 2000 general election, but only 30,671 registered a vote for president, an apparent undervote of 8.3 percent.

"I'm sure the problem is not with the cards. And, generally, people will vote correctly," said Vandyke.

Only 91.4 percent of the 7,486 Democratic primary ballots registered a vote for U.S. Senate this month, while 96.3 percent recorded a vote for the local sheriff's race and 94.6 percent registered for state auditor.
--------------------------------------

Florida 2000 between Gore/Bush

http://www.leinsdorf.com/itsatie.htm

It Was Really A Tie In Florida and in the Nation - Voting Machine Choice Determined Winner in Florida

The reason it is taking so long to put this election to bed is that it really was a tie in Florida and the nation. The voters were presented with an unacceptable choice and, in the end, they refused to make it. They have hit the ball back into the court of the politicians, as if to say, you decide.

The number of double votes, under votes and no votes for president in Florida varied from a high of 12.4% in Gadsden County to a low of 0.24% in Seminole County.

Many explanations have been offered from the butterfly ballot arrangement in Palm Beach County to the allegation that minority voters were misled at the polls.

The truth turns out to be that the kind of voting machine used determined how many people did not vote for president.

There were 11 different voting systems in the 67 Florida Counties:

manual paper ballots (1)

TGS - Triad Government Systems, Xenia, Ohio (8)

SPS - Sequoia Pacific System, Exeter, California (2)

GES - Global Election System, McKinney, Texas (16)

F&C VM - Fidlar & Chambers, Rock Island, Illinois (2) Votematic

F&C DM - (1) Datamatic

ETN - ETNet, Inc., Little Rock, Arkansas (1)

ERC - Election Resources Corporation, Little Rock, Arkansas (11)

Optec - Election Systems & Software, Inc., Omaha, Nebraska, Optec III marksense

ES&S115 - Election Systems & Software, Inc. Omaha, Nebraska, Model 115 and/or315


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IndyOp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 09:19 PM
Response to Reply #4
6.  Hi Again, AnIndependentTexan!
Edited on Thu Dec-09-04 09:19 PM by IndyOp
I love your post -- the Sumter County article is an excellent find! (See my post above).

:hi:

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AnIndependentTexan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 09:31 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. I can not do much but I am trying to do what I can
I would have never found that article if you didn't help point out about Traid.
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progressoid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 09:25 PM
Response to Original message
7. Veddy interestinga
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Vote4Kerry Donating Member (372 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 09:41 PM
Response to Original message
10. Thanks for posting..n/t
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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 09:42 PM
Response to Original message
12. I think you are mixing up "Bush" and "Kerry." Reread your post.
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spooked911 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 10:01 PM
Response to Original message
17. Yes-- the title is wrong
but your analysis is interesting-- assuming it is correct.

It suggests that Ohio overall went for Kerry much more than Gore, except for counties where this one type of voting machine was used.

The only non-fraud explanation I can think of is that these are older counties that have not switched to new machines and may have a much older demographic that went for Bush more. Maybe.

It is an interesting find.
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Celebration Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 10:07 PM
Response to Original message
18. ballots mixed up?
It probably isn't the tabulation. More likely the cards were mixed up, when people in different precincts voted at the same location. If the cards were mixed up (and apparently they were) then a Kerry vote could not be counted, or be for Bush, or whatever, depending on the order of the candidates in the ballot. If we had the undervotes per precinct we would know more.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 11:50 AM
Response to Reply #18
21. Let's focus on Triad tabulators
We must find out how they work, and how they report. We believe that Kerry votes were switched to Bush in certain counties. Fraud not accidental.

These are the counties. This scheme has nothing to do with shorting machines in dem areas. Suburban and rural whites voted on Triad tabulated punch card machines in OH.

The Triad counties and their populations:

Urban counties in Ohio with minority populations were for the most part not Triad tabulated punch card counties. Some of the urban couties are Cuyahoga, Montgomery, Franklin, Hamilton, and a couple more up near Cleveland. The counties that Toledo and Akron are in.

It would seem that Triad serves counties that are for the most part white and not urban.

Triad counties: The number next to the county name is population, so you can see these are not urban counties.

1, oh,"ashtabula",103120,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"brown",43807,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"carroll",29599,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"clark",143351,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"clinton",41756,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"columbiana",111523,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"darke",52960,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"defiance",39054,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"fulton",42446,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"gallia",31398,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"greene",151257,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"guernsey",41362,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"harrison",15967,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"henry",29318,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"highland",41963,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"hocking",28644,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"holmes",40681,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"jackson",33074,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"logan",46411,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"lorain",291164,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"madison",40624,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"marion",66396,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"meigs",23242,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"mercer",40933,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"monroe",14927,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"montgomery",552187,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"morgan",14843,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"muskingum",85423,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"noble",14054,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"paulding",19665,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"perry",35074,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"pike",28194,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"portage",154870,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"preble",42417,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"putnam",34754,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"seneca",57734,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"union",43750,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"van wert",29277,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"

1, oh,"warren",181743,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"


1, oh,"wood",123020,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"


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eomer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 12:09 PM
Response to Reply #21
26. Triad founder a Republican? How surprising!
<snip>
The votes in Ohio are officially re-counted and tallied 10 days after Election Day, Tod A. Rapp, the man who wrote the software that tabulates the votes in nearly half the counties in Ohio, told American Free Press. The outstanding provisional ballots are only counted after that, Rapp said.

Rapp, the founder of Triad Governmental Systems, Inc. of Xenia, Ohio, wrote the computer program that tallies the punch-card ballots in the centralized counting systems used in 41 counties in Ohio. Rapp, whose sons now manage the family run company, is a generous supporter of the Republican Party and the presidential campaign of George W. Bush.
<unsnip>

http://www.americanfreepress.net/html/vote_fraud.html
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Liberty Belle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 11:53 AM
Response to Original message
22. Send this to Arnebeck ASAP! He may want to amend his
case to add this in.
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BR_Parkway Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 11:59 AM
Response to Original message
23. Any correlation to unexpected increases for Green/Lib votes
in those same areas? I've seen some discussions about using the wrong precinct template in some areas, which meant that a vote cast for Kerry was actually going to one of the other candidates or disqualified.
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Shalom Donating Member (832 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 12:07 PM
Response to Original message
24. Very Useful Info and Analysis - Thanks !! n/t
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tex-wyo-dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 12:07 PM
Response to Original message
25. Warren is the key...
A procecutor needs only to have resonable doubt in one county with evidence that the problem is systemic to put the election of OH in question.
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mulethree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 07:45 PM
Response to Original message
27. Link is broken
Where can I find out which counties used Triad?

I don't like the last calculation where the average swing is applied to the 41 counties. I'd like to calculate it based on percentage but need to know what counties.
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mulethree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 07:53 PM
Response to Reply #27
28. They operate in Florida too?
http://www.co.leon.fl.us/elect/blankspoilFL.pdf#search=...

Maybe its a leap
Triad government is counting Florida votes
Not neccessarily the same company
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Alizaryn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 08:07 PM
Response to Reply #28
29. If you have not sent this to Arnebeck I would as soon as possible.
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mulethree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 11:01 PM
Response to Original message
30. A bad assumption
On average, the Triad counties have 38% the population of the non-triad counties.

So instead of 2,486 * 41 = 101926
It should be more like 2486 * 41 * 0.378 = 38,527

0.378 = 2833863/7497225 = Triad votes / non-triad votes

I ran numbers for triad vs non-triad and found :
Kerry got 106% of expected in non-triad counties and 102.3% in triad counties.
Bush got 100.5% of expected in non-triad counties and 103.8% in triad counties.

All the numbers are >100% because the many 3rd party votes from 2000 are not accounted for.

If you took the non-triad percentages and applied them to the triad counties then Bush would lose 25,000 votes and Kerry would pick up 25,000 votes.

The non-triad counties are larger and include more urban areas and minorities, so there are plausible explanations. I think a more valid comparison would be to pick two sets of demographically-comparable counties and compare the two subsets.

If I restrict the comparison to counties with <100,000 votes
Triad Kerry= 102% Bush = 104.1%
non-Triad Kerry=102.9% Bush=103.3%

If I restrict the comparison to counties with <50,000 votes
Triad Kerry= 101.5% Bush = 104.5%
non-Triad Kerry=102.3% Bush=103.9%

If I restrict the comparison to counties with <25,000 votes
Triad Kerry= 101% Bush = 104.2%
non-Triad Kerry=98.7% Bush=105.1%


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