Gillard now 'most unpopular Australian leader in past 40 years'

[bemildred]

One year after Australian prime minister Julia Gillard ousted Kevin Rudd to become the country's first female leader, she's in serious trouble herself.

The enthusiasm that greeted Gillard on a crisp June day last year has all but evaporated, with barely one in four (27%) Australians now prepared to vote for her, according to a new poll – the worst for any major federal political party in almost four decades.

With a majority of just one in the hung parliament and Gillard having to rely on the support of three independents and a Greens MP to govern, a single by-election could spell disaster for her.

With her personal approval rating collapsing (nearly 60% of those polled disapprove of her), Kevin Rudd is now the preferred Labor leader by a margin of two to one.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/18/julia-gillard-most-unpopular-leader-australia

[Matilda]

1. It's a rather surreal situation.

People just don't like Gillard - of course, the Liberals will hate her on principle, but most of my friends vote Labor or Green, and none of them like her either. She's a very good parliamentary performer - she can dish it out and take it with the best of them in the bear pit, and she has the support of the parliamentary party, but people don't like her and indications are they won't vote for her again next time. I think it's partly personality - she's not a warm person and distinctly lacks charm - but she also hasn't been forgiven for knifing Kevin Rudd.

And that's where the problems arise - the parliamentary party don't like Rudd personally, but the people do. He has a blokey touch and comes across as "real", and people just take to him. Last week's Nielsen poll is the most reliable of the polls, and it had 60% of all Australians (not just Labor voters) preferring him as Prime Minister over Gillard. It could probably be said fairly that the parliamentarians know him and we really don't, but that's how it is; he has a gift for engaging with ordinary people as one of them. I'm sure the Liberals' biggest fear is that Rudd will come back, but given the antipathy in caucus, it seems unlikely, despite his personal popularity.

Gillard would really have to pull something out of the bag to claw back support, but I think her political judgment is terrible - she acts without adequate preparation, and makes judgments that Blind Freddie could see are the wrong moves at the wrong time. And - like Rudd - she can be very stubborn but lacks real courage. A clear plan? She should let us know what it is, because damned if we can see it.

All of which points to an unthinkable win for Tony Abbot next election, God help us.

[Tanelorn]

2. Be patient

Two years to the next election. The Carbon Tax will be in. The
NBN will have begun. Other promises will be on the move. The
economy will be on the turn. The mad monk will implode. Plenty
of time. Julia's personality... well that's another thing.