Will there be a switcheroo of pro and anti-EU views between the main parties?

[Anarcho-Socialist]

We're used to the Tories being on the whole Eurosceptics, and the Lib Dems and to a lesser extent New Labour being Europhiles. But I sense there will be a change in this state of affairs.

If there is say a Cameron government with a workable majority in 2009 onwards, I can see Britain integrating closer with the European Union, and even dare I say it, join the Euro.

There are a number of reasons why I think this is so. The European Union of the 1980s and early 1990s no longer appears to be the enlightened social democratic dream to the British centre-left. Under the influence of Blairist neoliberalism and its continental equivalents, the EU has moved away from a social liberal left-democratic club to an organisation that wishes to entrench neoliberal economic orthodoxy throughout the continent.

The One Nation Tory view of the EU was as a stable free trade pro-enterprise bloc that could improve growth at home in Britain. The Tory New Right gradually became disenchanted with the EU as promoting social democracy through the back door with its Social Chapter and convention on human rights. Hostility against the EU was presented in simple easy-to-consume xenophobic scarestories in the reliable Tory press, entrenching scepticism within the public at large.

With Anglo-American economics faltering and the European national economies growing, a change from corporate Britain is likely to bring pressure upon a Cameron Tory government to bring further British integration into a EU with its institutionalised corporatism and anti-organised labour practices as its main attraction. The Tories do however need to deal with its very reactionary xenophobic base, but it was successfully won over in 1973-5, and I imagine the same would be true now if party heavy-hitters rallied around.

If say in the next Parliament, Labour are in opposition then I would see the party's return to the centre-left as inevitable if it wishes to survive as an electoral force. If that is the case, then I can see the Labour Party becoming more hostile to the EU due to it no longer appearing to be the progressive force it once was.

I would imagine the Liberal Democrats will likely stay in its current political position. It's seemingly left-of-labour approach would likely be only temporary until the Labour Party moves to the Left whilst in opposition. I think on the whole the Lib Dems will still support European integration even if it's in the name of "flexible labour markets."

I maybe wrong though. What do you all think?

[muriel_volestrangler]

1. I'm not convinced

The Tory membership really are Eurosceptic, or Europhobic. John Major was quite happy cooperating with the EU, and he spent a large amount of time fighting off the rabid parts of the party as a result, who continued, despite the obvious splits it made public. I don't think it was an economic outlook that drove that - it's fundamental to those people - British Empire, Little England, or whatever drives them. I can't see Cameron or anyone dragging them any more pro-Europe than Major did.

Yes, it's possible the Labour leadership could become a bit more Eurosceptic, I suppose (there was a bit of change about the Euro, after all, so I don't think it's a matter of principle for them - indeed, what is?). And faced with Berlusconi, Sarkozy and Merkel as the other leaders of the large EU countries, some Labour members might become a little cooler about it, I suppose. But Merkel may be no further right than the current New Labour cabinet. And international cooperation is, I think, still appealing to a lot of 'Old Labour' - while some like Tony Benn were doubtful about Europe, other will point to Europe being unwilling, as a whole, to go along with the USA on 'muscular liberal' invasions of other countries. That appeals to the left of Labour - while turning to the mythical 'special relationship' with the US gives a warm glow to the average Tory, and that tends to mean ignoring the EU.

And the Tory press has sold a lot of papers by being anti-EU - they'd need a good financial reason to leap off that gravy train at full speed.

[Mark Baker]

2. I agree that it's complicated

Xenophobes will never like the EU, and such people are likely to always support the Tory party.

Free-trade fans have always liked the EU as a trading bloc, even if they haven't agreed with everything else it stands for. I'd have thought such people would be more comfortable in the Tory party, the party of Thatcher, than in Labour despite the current Labour leadership's neo-liberal policies.

I can't see the EU becoming un-popular with most of the left until it starts forcing neo-liberal policies on us. While there have been a few cases where it has, they've been fairly rare. So long as we have a more right-wing government than most of the rest of Europe, which despite a move to the right across Europe, we still have, the EU will largely work to restrain our goverment and so be popular with the left.

If Labour become more left-wing in opposition (well, they could hardly get more right-wing than the current Labour leadership, could they?) I think they're likely to remain pro-EU for this reason - we'd then have a Tory government whose excesses would be blocked by the EU, just like we did in the 80s and early 90s. If they then got back in power and miraculously remained left-wing, then I can see their EU support ebbing away.

[LeftishBrit]

3. Mmm. It's hard to guess what will happen

There's always been a left-wing Euroscepticism.

I have moved in the other direction from the one you seem to be suggesting here: from moderate Euroscepticism (based on an impression that a federal Europe wasn't likely to work well, and that the bureaucracy was getting too unwieldy, rather than anything very ideological) to a moderately pro-Europaean view. This was based largely on the war, Bush's re-election, and a feeling that it was better to be part of an unwieldy bureaucratic federal Europe than to be Bush's 51st state with no counterbalance! Also, I feel that a federal Europe may help to combat the darker side of Europe's own politics - the problem of neo-Nazism and related movements is getting worse, not better; and I think the uglier national movements probably thrive best in countries that are isolationist and isolated.

What will happen in the parties with regard to Europe depends a lot on how the parties develop more generally IMO; e.g. whether Labour moves to the left or not, and whether the Tories are totally re-possesed by the Thatcherites.

[T_i_B]

4. Hmmmmm.....

...The Liberals have been Pro-Europe right from the word go and the Lib Dem's are not about to change on that score. It's also interesting to note that at the last European elections they were the only genuinely pro-Europe party on my ballot paper.

I don't think the Tories are going to change from being Euro-sceptic anytime soon. It may have been a bloody battle in the Tory party, but I do think that the Euro-sceptics have won through on the right.

As to Labour? Well they could change of course but that may well depend on what future events are in store. And of course if they reckon that they could get it past the UK press.