Liberal revival

[CHIMO]

“Poll puts Liberals in front. Martin’s wait-for-Gomery campaign appears to strike a chord with voters,” the Globe and Mail proclaimed in a front page story. Liberals had the support of 30 per cent of Canadians to Stephen Harper’s 28.

Harper went from a six-point lead to a two-point deficit in 10 days. In Ontario the Tories trailed by eight points. The poll is a “blow” for Harper’s “hopes for victory,” just one day after vowing he would force an election vote “at the earliest possible opportunity.”

The terrain politically is difficult for all sides. Given the switch in the polls, the media were hinting Harper might have second thoughts before pulling the plug. That hope will be a vain one. It is not in Harper’s character to admit he’s wrong.

Polls be damned. Harper’s election machinery is all geared up. It’s damn the torpedoes on public opinion and full steam ahead for Harper and his Tories.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/viewpoint/vp_zolf/20050509.html

[tuvor]

1. Egg on face, foot in mouth, hands over ears going 'la la la la la'...

Doesn't exactly instill one with a sense of pride in your country's potential leadership, does it?

[Jack Rabbit]

2. 30 to 28. The NDP must be getting ready to do well.

They have to have a good share of that remaining 42.

[tuvor]

3. The undecided typically go for the incumbent.

How many of the remaining 42% are undecided?

[V. Kid]

4. If the country is doing well...

...relativley yes. The Cons aren't too appealing, and the NDP has only rarely been a realistic threat to form goverment (like only in the late 80's and before Charlottetown)...so the Libs will probably win by default.

[Jack Rabbit]

5. This is close

Another poll posted on the LBN forum today has the Tories ahead of the Liberals by something similar to this.

So I'll pose the same question here that I posed there.

Does anybody believe that if elections were held now that it would result in a majority government for either the Liberals or the Conservatives? Would it be any different in January when the Prime Minister has indicated he would like to hold elections?

[Spazito]

7. All indicators are that it will be another minority government

result if we are forced to the polls shortly. With regard to January, it is a hard call, so many things could happen in the interim.

Historically, in our 'younger years, we seemed to elect minority governments twice in succession whereas later in history, we would replace a minority government with a majority one so it is six of one, half a dozen of another, imo. With the level of trust in both the Libs and the Cons very low, another minority government in Jan 06 is certainly possible.

Here is a link to the previous minority governments in Canada:

Governing by minority
http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/cdngovernment/minoritygovernment.html



What may well happen is a change in the number the various opposition parties hold after an election in Jan 2006.

[iverglas]

6. "... wait-for-Gomery campaign appears to strike a chord with voters"

Yeah. And the chord is: oh good! a convenient excuse for not thinking about anything!

Nobody ever wants an election, really. So give 'em a reason, dress it up in reason and principle, and they'll make it their own. Saves them doing the work.

I don't want an election either, but that has bugger all to do with Gomery.

The Liberals are corrupt, they've always been corrupt, and anybody who didn't know where the Adscam money was going from the moment the tale was first told is either deeply stupid or in the habit of covering their ears and going wah-wah. And I couldn't care less whether Martin was personally involved, or had personal knowledge, or not -- if he did he's corrupt, if he didn't he's too negligent or foolish to be running my country. (And if we add in Basi's boys, and the question of whether he knew all that or not, and the implications of both possible answers, we just get more of the same.)

The one thing I may hope for is that if/when there is an election, all the people who didn't want an election simply because they don't give a shit will decide to vote (although they probably overlap significantly with that 1/3 of the electorate that doesn't bother to vote at the best of times), and they'll walk into the booth with that little "we should have waited for Gomery" meme in their head, and decide to punish Harper for the very fact of the election.

Of course, it would be nice if Harper would figure that out first.

[Amonester]

8. Some of the corrupted ones were working for the Tories...

Yeah. That was way back when Brian Mulroney was PM... Then Chretien got in. Next thing you know... well, same way real whores make a living... Always been this way in the good ol' days. "What? It's the public's money? So who cares then. Let's steal it in secret..."

I know another "bunch" of similar crooks somewhere these days!

Harper would need to win a clear majority of seats if he'd ever hope of becoming PM. That is not likely to ever happen in his entire lifetime. A majority of voters don't want to be "forced" to send their kids to die in Iraq or Iran, only to make the neocon liar and his croonies (especially Cheney) richer every f*****g day.