Tories Have Nine-Point Edge in Canada

[tuvor]

The governing Conservative party is still the mot popular political organization in Canada, according to a poll by The Strategic Counsel released by CTV and the Globe and Mail. 37 per cent of respondents would vote for the Tories in the next federal election.

The Liberal party is second with 26 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 18 per cent, the Bloc Québécois with 11 per cent, and the Green party with nine per cent. Support for the Tories increased by one point in a month, while backing for both the Liberals and the NDP fell by the same margin.

Canadians renewed the House of Commons in January. The Conservative party—led by Stephen Harper—received 36.3 per cent of the vote, and secured 124 seats in the 308-member lower house. Since February, Harper leads a minority administration after more than 12 years of government by the Liberal party.

The Liberal party will elect a new leader in December. The list of 11 candidates includes former environment minister Stéphane Dion, academic Michael Ignatieff, former Ontario premier Bob Rae, and former Ontario education minister Gerard Kennedy.

Liberal spokesperson Pat Breton said interim Liberal leader Bill Graham is contemplating the possibility of an election this fall, saying, "He can’t just sit idly by while Harper sabre-rattles and threatens to make every vote a confidence vote."

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/12649

(The article doesn't say when the poll was taken.)

[Spazito]

1. This is actually good news, they have not moved at all,,,

usually during the "honeymoon phase" when the media treat them like gold, and our media have, imo, the poll numbers of new governments go up. This says they still can't get a majority government if an election was called and this poll was taken before harper's crap in the Middle East, Jul. 13 to Jul. 15 is when the poll was taken.

[tuvor]

2. Thanks for the polling date info, Spazito.

Can't wait to see what the next set of numbers looks like.

[Spazito]

3. You're welcome! I am eagerly awaiting the next set of numbers

They should tell us whether harper's PR stunt paid off as well as whether his toadying up to bush with his statement on Israel is supported. I hope they poll soon.

[daleo]

4. I agree that Harper's lack of upward movement is a good sign

Although the media has now tilted right so consistently that it seems plausible that the "honeymoon" will last a long time. I assume Canadians will learn to see past corporate media cheerleading soon enough, though.

[Bragi]

5. Really not good news

Sorry folks, but the fact that they are exactly where they were at in the last elecetion doesn't excite me with glee about the chance of stopping Harper from getting a majority.

So far, Harper has renounced Kyoto, put Canada on the side of the warmongers in Afghanistan and the Middle East, negotiated a softwood deal that promotes the American dream, cancelled the national child care program, trashed the funding deal for aboriginals, picked a Rovian fight with the national media to isolate and discredit them, etc. etc. and he hasn't lost a point.

Given that Harper only needs the support of less than 4 in 10 voters to get a majority (because of the NDP-Lib vote splitting of the centre-left) it looks to me like Canada is well on the way to 6-10 years of rule by neocons who are quite farther to the right than any previous national government in post-war Canada.

If anyone has any compelling arguments as to why this won't happen, I would be pleased to hear them, since they elude me at this point.

- B

[Spazito]

6. I suspect, regardless of whatever arguments are put forth, you

would not find them "compelling". The fact that harper has NOT moved is, to me, a fair argument which you seem to feel is not acceptable, so be it. You and I disagree, obviously.

[Bragi]

7. No movement might be good if...

If Harper had been doing nothing but staying low and out of mind, or had mounted an initial policy thrust that was quite popular, and after that, hadn't moved up in the polls, then yes, I would say that would be bad news for them.

But that is not what has happened. Harper has been deliberately and unapologetically implementing key components of his far right agenda, and he hasn't lost any support whatsoever.

I think that points to him getting a majority in the next election, which at this point, I'm betting he'd rather have sooner than later.

- B

[Spazito]

8. LOL, and I am betting he won't get a majority government in the

next election, I guess we shall see who is right after the next election. I am bookmarking this thread in order to have access to it at that time.

[Bragi]

9. I hope you win, but I doubt you will /NT

[ClusterFreak]

10. 26% for the Liberals?

Just nine points back? 8 points ahead of Jack and the NDP?

And this is without a leader, either.

Cool.