Same-sex vote `too close to call'

[CHIMO]

OTTAWA—When it comes time for MPs to vote — again — on same-sex marriage, exactly how the numbers will fall in the House of Commons remains unclear.

"We have some idea of what's going on, but ... it's still too close to call," said Laurie Arron, director of advocacy for Egale, a group that fights for equal rights for gays and lesbians.

In an informal survey, Arron has identified at least four incoming Conservatives who support same-sex marriage: John Baird (Ottawa West-Nepean), Garth Turner (Halton), Lawrence Cannon (Pontiac) and Josée Verner (Louis-Saint-Laurent).

"But I would say that the vast, overwhelming majority of new Conservative MPs will be siding with Mr. Harper," Arron said. "Most new Liberals will be on our side and new Bloc will be on our side and new NDP, certainly on our side."

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1139007014167&call_pageid=968332188774&col=968350116467

If I were Harper I would be very concerned if this came to a vote. Remember it only needs a majority in the vote, not 154 votes. So those who don't vote don't get counted.

[daleo]

1. Should he be worried that he wins the vote, or that he loses?

That is Harper's predicament.

[CHIMO]

3. He Should

Be worried that he might win the vote.

If the Bloc suddenly didn't show up for the vote in significant numbers, and some of the Liberals, Harper might win the vote. I would think that the Liberals who didn't back it last time, and ran on that in their campaign, would have to show up otherwise they would loose their base.

Similarly the Conservatives would have to be there or endure the wrath of their right wing supporters.

Harper no longer could use that issue as a requirement for a majority to pass the legislation. The Bloc could also use the issue to gain back support in Quebec.

How the senate would handle it is an unknown.

So I would think that he should be more worried of it passing than failing.

[daleo]

6. Your explanation of the vote count is sound

I guess I was thinking more along the lines:

- if he wins the vote, moderate Canadians might reject him and his party.
- if he loses the vote, his Reform Party base might reject him and his party, and start up a Reform Party II.

From a political standpoint, I bet he wishes it would all just go away. As for his personal stand on the issue, I have heard that he really does and he really doesn't care about same sex marriage. I still haven't figured him out in this regard.

On edit - Re-reading your post, I think you are saying pretty much the same thing that I am.

[Wabbajack]

2. So if it passes

is same sex marriage then banned? Does it have to pass the Senate? I thought the courts ruled it unconstitutional.

Does this involve invoking the notwithstanding clause?

[Spazito]

5. Good questions! The Supreme Court did rule banning same-

sex marriage as in violation of the Charter of Rights so a free vote revoking what was earlier passed would be merely symbolic. The government would have to pass new legislation that would change the Charter of Rights, highly unlikely to happen, or invoke the notwithstanding clause which Harper swore during the campaign he would not do.

He will be in a conundrum if the free vote passed, awwwwww, lol.

[Harper_is_Bush]

4. Harper said would be a vote and that it would be soon...

...a free vote in The House.

During the campaign he promised it and since winning his itsy bitsy minority he said it would happen soon.

I can't wait.

[daleo]

7. My Canwest paper was pushing an Ipsos poll today

That said Canadians are so tired of elections that they would not want to see him defeated even if he outlawed same sex marriage or sent Canadian troops to Iraq.

I think Canwest has jumped the shark tank.

[AX10]

8. Canwest/CTV are as rightwing as Fox "news".

..and of course, Canadians are only "tired of elections" ONLY after a Con government has been elected.

[daleo]

9. Both excellent points. n/t