Now Tobin's out, too:

[Minstrel Boy]

Brian Tobin becomes third high-profile Liberal to snub leadership

OTTAWA (CP) - Brian Tobin has bowed out of the race to replace Paul Martin as Liberal leader, the third potential high-profile candidate to take a pass at a job few seem to want anymore.

Tobin, a former Newfoundland premier and federal cabinet minister, told The Canadian Press today that he made his contribution and now it's time for "new blood." Tobin joins former deputy prime minister John Manley and former New Brunswick premier Frank McKenna in refusing to stage a political comeback.

The absence of the three political heavyweights leaves the contest to replace Martin wide open to host of lesser known candidates.

http://www.cjad.com/content/cp_article.asp?id=/global_feeds/CanadianPress/NationalNews/n013151A.htm

Today Jeffrey Simpson wrote that the biggest and most likely Liberal contenders are conceding that Harper will win a majority next election. Sure looks that way.

[whosinpower]

1. CRAP

I was really hoping Tobin would step up to the plate. I liked him.

[hopeisaplace]

2. oh my freaking gawd...I hope that's wrong!

..here we go again..another disastrous period coming for Canada if that's the case
(previous conservative government was the last one,imo)

[Spazito]

3. That is disappointing, I like Tobin

I wonder if this is because the Liberals don't want a fight on the floor, infighting of the party so they will have a candidate that isn't seen as a Martin favourite or a Chretien favourite? Could they be laying the groundwork for Ignatieff, new blood so to speak? It will be interesting to see what response Alan Rock will have, whether he will throw his hat in the ring or not.

[daleo]

4. I think Ann McClellan will announce soon

I think her fluency in French is the only thing holding her back.

I haven't read Simpson today, but it seems like the media will be focusing on the "Harper majority is inevitable" meme.

[Spazito]

6. I doubt it given she lost in her own riding, she is not popular at all

with most Canadians, imo.

[daleo]

10. I see her and Ken Dryden in the race

Just a hunch. Losing as a Liberal in Alberta is no disgrace (winning is the next thing to a miracle), so I wouldn't read too much into it.

[Minstrel Boy]

11. I think Dryden must be moving to the front of the pack now.

Dull as hell, but if that's the worst that can be said of him - and I can't think of worse - if I were a Liberal I'd be backing him. (And I came into my young hockey fandom watching the unknown Dryden stand on his freakin' head during the Canadiens '71 run for the cup.) All in all, the potential contender I least want the NDP to face (he could convincingly clawback centre-left support), yet the one I think would make the best Liberal Prime Minister. Whether he could defeat Harper, though, I have my doubts.


Dryden wrote a pretty solid piece of pre-election rhetoric, found on his website under "Message from Ken":

I don't think Mr. Harper thinks in terms of "great national endeavours." I don't think that's part of his understanding of Canada. I don't think that's what's in his bones.

Their announcements on child care, public transit, persons with disabilities - so limited. So limiting. He tells us to: "Stand Up for Canada" -- but what Canada are we to stand up for?

To Mr. Harper, it's about what's in my pocket, in my backyard, people having the chance to choose for themselves, the collective good emerging out of that. And there's something to that. But there's something not. Not much of any real importance can be done alone. Part of bringing out the best in people is coaxing, nudging, inspiring them to get together, to work towards something bigger than themselves, that stretches their imaginations, that gets them to do more than they ever thought was in them.

What if, 100 years ago, government put $50 in every family's pocket and told us to build a school system - if that's where we'd like to put our money. What if, 40 years ago - here's $100 for a health care system, if that's where you want to spend it. Where would we be today? Just because our schools and health care aren't all we'd like them to be - imagine where we'd be without them.

The railroad, Medicare, the education system, the Charter of Rights - Canada is a great national endeavour. We're a country whose greatest national endeavours are still ahead. I want big things for Canada. I don't want anything less.

[daleo]

12. I think Dryden has a real shot

He is intelligent, thoughtful and literate. He has that hockey past, which resonates with people all over the country, especially being the glory years of the Montreal Canadiens. He represents an Ontario riding, but has recognition and respect in Quebec as well. Harper is associated with Alberta, and that may not play well for long in central Canada.

I don't know how his French is, but I don't think Harper's is really all that good (according to some Radio Canada reporters I saw on Newsworld the day after the first French debate), so he doesn't have that high a standard to beat.

If I was a Conservative strategist, he would be the one who might scare me the most.

[Minstrel Boy]

15. Apparently he's not fluent.

Surprises me; I'd assumed he was.

From USA Today last September:

"He enjoys politics more in terms of policy than showmanship," MacGregor says. "That's interesting, because goalies like center stage. Ken doesn't. He doesn't like the shouting and yelling" of question period. "He finds it childish and embarrassing."

Dryden's long-form style of answering questions means "he's almost never invited on TV," Wells says. "He's the despair of every TV producer who's ever had him on. That's a high-class problem, because it also means he faces less scrutiny."

The clue to Dryden's ambition will be if his French gets better. Canadian leaders must be fluent. Dryden isn't, although he's taking lessons.

When he played, Dryden spoke the universal language of stopping pucks. MacGregor says Dryden regrets he didn't learn more French then. Perhaps one of the great heroes of Les Habitants could be forgiven that. Besides, his answers in fractured French just might fit into 35-second bits.

[daleo]

17. Thanks for the info about his French

Only his French tutor knows for sure.

[Harper_is_Bush]

5. Jean!!!

[tuvor]

7. Wow, that's defeatism if I've ever heard it.

We don't know who'll lead the Liberals, we don't know when the next election will be, and we don't know what Harper will have to deal with (not to mention, deal with well) in full public view before that time.

But the Liberals have already decided they can't oppose him effectively. Have they been looking to the Democrats for inspiration?

[Spazito]

8. It is not the Liberals saying that, it is Jeffrey Simpson

interpreting things as he is want to do. I bet he also wrote rah-rah articles on Harper during the campaign, just a hunch, lol.

[tuvor]

13. I confess ignorance about Jeffrey Simpson

But concession is always an observable action, isn't it? I don't see how someone can interpret concession short of reading minds.

I hope that makes sense. I'm feeling a little sleepy.

I guess I'll have to google this guy.

ON EDIT: Found Simpson's quote, commented in post #14. Sorry, Spazito!

[hopeisaplace]

9. man you said it...

end of the 80's when Mulroney had the country...I remember
everything very well...I remember almost to the day when
they announced the then new GST that was coming - people were
freaking out, fuming mad. It was quite a memorable time.

I don't think people in Canada will put up with too much
crap from the conservatives...I really believed we are people
who wear more "spin armour".

[tuvor]

14. Ah, I found the quote by Simpson.

"Their decisions weaken the Liberal Party by depriving it of top-drawer men and signalling, however indirectly, that the Liberals really don't expect to win the next election."

Yeah, okay, that was an irresponsible interpretation.

Sorry, Spazito!

[Spazito]

16. No problem, I should have given some links to what he

writes but, in all honesty, I was too damn lazy to look it up, sorry about that.

[jackbourassa]

18. BOB RAE SHOULD DO IT!!!!

I'm all for Bob Rae becoming next Liberal leader. He's fluent in both languages. He has support among the New Democrats. The way to win back Quebec is by going left. BC is turning back to the NDP. I think Bob Raw is the guy.

P.S. Before you flame me, remember that he has been a Liberal since the late 1990s.

[Spazito]

19. From what I remember, he was a total disaster in Ontario,

along the lines of Glen Clark in B.C., which means he can't get the votes needed from the province that is key. I think he is a long shot at best for a number of reasons.