New Poll shows Specter decisively defeating Sestak in 2010 primary

[PADEMJES12]

Rasmussen conducted a poll gauging a hypothetical Specter- Sestak matchup for the 2010 Democratic primary today. US Senator Arlen Specter would decisively defeat Congressman Joe Sestak by 51% to 32% 19 point margin. Perhaps more telling are some of the other numbers that have been compiled from this recent poll. 53% of Democratic Pennsylvanians surveyed viewed Specter favorably, whereas 42% had a favorable opinion of Sestak. Specter and Sestak's very unfavorable numbers are at 10% and 9%. Over 1/4 of the voters did not even know Sestak to be able to form an opinion of him, which essentially proves my point that the Democratic ticket will need to have Specter on the ticket, which will give us the best chance to defeat Toomey, but also to win the critical gubernatorial showdown with re-districting looming large in 2010. It will aid incumbents too!

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/pennsylvania/election_2010_pennsylvania_senate_election

Precisely to prove my point about Specter's appeal to moderates, which will be a major asset to Democrats up and down the ticket are the following numbers:

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Republican voters favor Toomey in a match-up with Specter, who draws 74% of the Democratic vote and 23% of Republicans.

Sixty-six percent (66%) of GOP voters support Toomey in a race against Sestak, who earns 64% of Democrats and just 13% of Republicans.

Nearly 1/4 of all GOP voters favor Specter, the Democratic candidate, who also ejoys a 10 point advantage over Sestak amongst Democrats.

In a general match up:

Specter 50% Toomey 39%
Sestak 41% Toomey 35%, a much narrower margin as Rasmussen reports.

That being said, we can't afford to mess around with 2010. We need the candidate that will give us the best chance to beat Toomey and help the rest of our ticket.
That candidate is: Arlen Specter.

Note: Bill Kortz, the only other officially declared candidate was not a part of the poll.
It appears only 374 voters were polled.

[HERVEPA]

1. This sounds like a paid political announcement. Please read Daily Kos

for a more realistic interpretation of the polling

[PADEMJES12]

2. lol.... u guys gotta be getting paid for your cheerleading....

Im most certainly not! Thanks for directing them to Kos for me. Realistic interpretations can
be found here obviously, and also on Kos. See HERVEPA for imaginary numbers.

[JPZenger]

3. Let's give Sestak a couple months to campaign and then look

Sestak has not started campaigning or buying ads outside of his district. Let's check back in 3 months and look at the polls. Sestak has much lower negatives than Specter because people don't know Sestak yet.

Remember, Specter was born in 1930. That means he would be 87 at the end of his term. I'm not sure I want another Strom Thurmond or Howard Heflin representing PA. (Dave Barry had a satirical quote of Heflin saying "someone done colored my hair with Tang".) I know people who were in great shape at 80 but can't remember their name at 87.

If Specter cannot complete his term, a Republican governor could appoint Santorum as his replacement.

[PADEMJES12]

4. Democrats are in fact uniters, not dividers like Toomey

You say "Sestak has much lower negatives than Specter because people don't know Sestak yet" That is a faulty premise because you're interjecting that once people get to know Sestak, Specter's negatives will go up. We as a Democratic Party young and old do not need that type of divisive politics. I respectfully think we as Democrats should work to unite as opposed to divide. If u want to divide us Democrats and go negative, then i suggest you join the right wing of the Republican Party and consider hanging out with Patrick Toomey. Toomey is very hungry, in fact thirsting to smash the Democratic Party, civil liberties, organized labor, not to mention Arlen Specter. If fact Toomey hates Specter's guts because the Senator has repeatedly had the courage to strongly stand up for Democratic principles, most recently including a vote for the Obama stimulus and an endorsement of Judge Sotomayor. In fact, Toomey was advocating the filibuster for Specter's endorsement of Sotomayor as a candidate with excellent experience and as a "candidate that would bring a fresh perspective to the court." We need to rally, unite, and stand up for Democratic coalition building. Toomey has raised over 1 million in i think 50 days, which is impressive by any means and shouldn't be taken lightly by us. Negatives for Arlen will not go up as Senator Specter has consistently clocked a 70-80% approval rating from the Democratic Party. Our party should not engage in the types of attacks and smears that Republicans do. Im looking forward to seeing Senator Specter Specter clean Patrick Toomey's clock in 2010. Patrick Toomey is a dangerous fellow, seeing his recent PA Press Club speech. Senator Specter was correct in labeling him "making Rick Santorum look like a liberal." I was at the event. We're interested in Democratic coalition building and not negative divisive tactics. Furthermore, Specter and Sestak's negatives are even at 10 and 9 percent respectively. The numbers that are important are the ones you are conveniently not mentioning. We know Arlen, we don't know Joe. He's refused to inform us voters on the "Political Courage Test" conveniently in the past. Why in the hell would i vote for em now? Is that laziness, neglect... my couldnt he take a few seconds to fill out the questionnaire?

[JPZenger]

5. Here's some great video

My point was that negatives typically don't go up that much in one year, without a good reason to hate someone. But existing high negatives, among a person who is already well-known, typically stick.

Here's some beautiful video from the Specter for Senate campaign featuring strong endorsements of Specter by King George Bush and Sphinctorum. Remember, says Santorum, that Specter cast the key deciding vote to get King George's tax cuts for the rich passed.

http://www.citypaper.net/blogs/clog/2009/06/12/will-joe-sestak-get-clobbered-by-arlen-specter-plus-some-classic-santorum-footage/

[PADEMJES12]

6. Does anyone know how the Del. County event

with specter and sestak was.... did anyone go see it? I would have liked to.

[PADEMJES12]

7. Here's a link I saw from Navy Times re: Sestak's

persistently abusive behavior towards his staff. It appears he has a history of such. http://www.navytimes.com/news/2007/09/navy_sestakstaff_070904w/

I like Sestak, but I'm not sure that it would be very good to have a Senator that's abusive towards his staff because it could create a revolving door (as he's had) and that could spell inefficiency in handling constituent problems; etc. Has anyone else heard anything or can contribute about this... what is it 61 staffers since he's started or maybe more now. That's alot, makes continuity hard.

[AlinPA]

8. Specter has been hanging out with republicans for 45 years. You trust him? I sure as hell don't.

And I'm sure a lot of PA Democrats don't either.

[PADEMJES12]

9. Specter is a democrat for good

and gives us the best chance for victory in 2010. You need to open your heart, and let us grow as a party...
as opposed to your quest for short-term personal gain. The republicans have purged all the moderates.
Are u suggesting we be as foolish to do the same? I sure as hell will not. Doing so would implore
you're apparent strategy which flies in the face of Democratic party-building.

[AlinPA]

10. Let the Democratic voters of PA purge him in favor of the Democrat Sestak. There are other problems

with Specter, especially his age. He could not keep up the pace of a campaign across PA.

[PADEMJES12]

11. to each his own.....

im going w the democrat w the best chance to win in 2010 and help our party from the top of the ticket to the local races.

[Number9Dream]

12. Franklin & Marshall poll - Specter's numbers dive since switch

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20090625_Poll__Specter_s_numbers_dive_since__conversion_.html

57% of Pennsylvanians now believe Arlen Specter does not deserve to be re-elected to the U.S. Senate.

And, that only 28% of Pennsylvanians believe that Arlen deserves to be re-elected. (That's down from 40% since the last poll and falling ... a downward trend that Franklin & Marshall found "startling".)

Specter is holding onto support from Democrats. In March, 41 percent of Democrats said he deserved re-election, and last week the number was up to 43 percent. Twenty-four percent of independents told last week's pollsters that Specter deserved re-election.

Congressman Sestak has over a year to become known to most Pennsylvanians, and he's off to a great start. Nobody outside of the Lehigh Valley had heard of Toomey before his first run against Specter, and he almost defeated him in '04.

Toomey is very beatable. Whoever the Democratic candidate is needs to play up Toomey's staunch support of the Bush administration, and his career as an investment banker (a huge negative since the bailout).

[PADEMJES12]

13. One thing is consistent........

Specter holds a 20 point edge over Sestak. Yes, we're looking to win the Senate and Governors seats and
provide assistance to all of our candidates up and down the Democratic ticket.