Data's starting to roll in folks

[mainegreen]

http://www.mainetoday.com/elections/2006/

With only minimal precincts in the second district coming in Woodcock still is not ahead of Baldacci.
That and Tabors down. Looking good!

Ok, so Snowe's going to win, but it's not looking like it's going to be the 75% I was seeing projected.

[high density]

1. CBS has projected winners

Baldacci
Snowe
Allen
Michaud



http://election.cbsnews.com/campaign2006/state.shtml?state=ME

[mainegreen]

2. Tabors looking dead and the Constitutional Amendment will pass!

:bounce:

[primavera]

3. I don't get it

What makes Olympia so unassailable? She's running in a largely Democratic state, in an election when Repukes are in historic disgrace and even moderate Repukes like Chafee are losing to pretty much anyone, yet, even with this perfect storm against her, it's an accepted inevitability that Olympia will win every election without even trying. WTF? Does she walk on water or something? Has she brought in a ton on federal dollars for Maine? I know, she pitches herself as a moderate despite her anything but moderate voting record. Setting aside the fact that it's kind of embarassing that so many Mainers would fall for such transparent lies, why would being seen as even a moderate Repuke be a guarantee of re-election in a left-leaning state and left-leaning election? It just makes no sense to me.

[chefgirl]

4. In years past

Before this maladministration took over in Washington, she really did a lot of hard work for Maine seniors.

Also, in this election, she's getting the credit for keeping the Portsmouth (?) Shipyard open, and that means jobs in a state where they are disappearing, and very difficult to create new ones.

I've also never seen her run a negative ad, or attack anyone (which is actually to her credit).

I always kind of liked her, for a Republican, until she proved to be just another rubber stamp for the little idiot. I lost all respect for her after that.

Those are my best guesses, but I could be totally wrong too. :shrug:

-chef-

[primavera]

7. I think it says something interesting about Maine voters

Olympia won last night by... what, 70-something percent? Even assuming she received 100% of registered Republican votes, that wouldn't come close to giving her a 70%+ overall showing. Even if 100% of registered Republicans and registered Independents banded together and voted for her, not even that would produce a 70%+ showing. For her to get that great a majority, a substantial portion of registered Democrats had to cross party lines and vote for her. I think that's very interesting; it suggest that politics in Maine are less partisan and more issue- and/or character-driven.

Personally, coming from DC, I'm so consumed with anti-Republican feeling, I would unhesitatingly vote for a bad Democrat over a good Republican, as I so strongly believe that the Republican Party and everything it stands for needs to be thoroughly discredited in the eyes of the electorate and history. I thus understood where Rhode Islanders were coming from last night in rebuking Chafee who, by all accounts, wasn't a particularly bad Republican, but nevertheless was guilty by association.

It sounds like Mainers are less apt to make a similar choice. Not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing. Have to think about that one, but it's very interesting.

[RBInMaine]

5. Snowe is entrenched and bills herself as a liberal.

Snowe is obviously a very entrenched incumbent who votes just moderately enough (usually a fair-weather moderate) to bill herself as a liberal/centrist Republican. Note that in this campaign she distanced herself from Bush and the R leadership as did so many R's the country. To keep winning, Snowe knows she MUST be a "centrist" palatable to Maine voters. Kudos to Jean Hay Bright for stepping up as the "David" to take on this "Goliath". She had precious little money and virtually no national party support given what was considered her inability to unseat Snowe. It is too bad the race was so written-off as her candidacy could have done that much more to help further bring out the harder-left anti-war liberal base. Luckily though, other
anti-right-wing dynamics coupled with excellent grassroots campaigning and a solid GOTV effort by the state party, which WAS supported through the DNC 50-state strategy resources, brought us a solid victory.

[primavera]

6. You're right that Haybright got very little support

... from the DNC. I attended one of her rallies in South Portland about a month ago at which Dennis Kucinich spoke, god love him. But I was struck by the fact that no one heavier-hitting than Dennis (who, let's face it, is an underappreciated figure in party politics) came out to support Haybright and even Dennis kept forgetting her name and having to turn around while speaking to look at the campaign poster behind the podium to remind himself of the name of the person whose candidacy he was championing. Plainly, the Party never had much hope for Jean Haybright, which is sad, but I guess was also realistic. Well, Jean got my vote, for whatever it's worth.

[chelsea0011]

8. And if the Dems do take the Senate, we may see Snowe and Collins

looking to be more moderate/independent with the stranglehold of the Republican leadership off their necks. And that goes for any other mods who are Republicans.

[Shorebound]

9. Snowe's strengths

She has never presented herself as an ideologue and has an up-from-poverty background that resonates with a lot of Mainers. Most importantly, she does first-class constituent services. There are literally thousands of people all over Maine who says, "I'm a Democrat, but when my brother had trouble with his Veteran's Administration checks, she took care of it with a phone call." And Mainers appreciate the power of seniority in the Senate.

[high density]

10. I dunno

I live in South Portland and I was looking at the results for the city... Tom Allen and Snowe had almost the same number of votes, both were around 7,000 or so. It simply made no sense to me. I guess most voters are conflicted about their values and/or aren't keeping track of what Snowe's record really is? The local and national media both go out of their way to brand Snowe and Collins as moderate, even though that label doesn't match many of their recent votes.