Looking back on Bill McBride

[TSIAS]

I know this might be a sensitive issue for some Florida DU'ers. I remember back in the late summer of 2002, most of DU supported McBride over Reno in the primary. Of course, McBride went on to narrowly defeat Reno and lose by double digits against JEB?.

What exactly happened to his campaign that caused such a big defeat? The higher-ups in the Democratic Party seemed to think it was a very winnable race. In fact, Bill Clinton and James Carville came to FL to campaign for him in that final weekend.

I'm writing a retrospective piece on that campaign and would like to know what other DU'ers think about the 2002 race.

[madfloridian]

1. I have wondered about that often.

We donated a lot to the campaign, and we worked with his county campaign staff here. They were, in fact, Republicans. But they were worried about our country even then.

There was not much enthusiasm near the end. I felt it when I talked to the HQ office. It had a bad feel near the end.

I have often wondered what all went on, and I know the polls played a big part. A poll was publicized very widely about 3 days before the election, Gallup, I think. There had only been a 3-5% spread, and then suddenly.....15% with no discernible reason.

It all went flat.

[virgdem]

2. My guess about McBride's loss comes down to two things...

1) Tim Russert moderated the debate between JEB and McBride. Anyone who has seen Russert in action as a moderator (remember the debate between Hillary and Lazio, where Hillary was sandbagged by Russert?), knows that McBride suffered the same fate as Hillary. Fortunately for Hillary, Lazio was a lousy debater and Hillary got sympathy for the appearance of being sandbagged and maligned by both Lazio and Russert.

2) JEB runs the political machine down in FL. All he had to do was rig the voting machines and voila, a victory for Jebby.

[Freddie Stubbs]

8. McBride wasn't ready for primetime

The fact that he couldn't explain how he would pay for the class size initiative made him look like an amateur. It was a basic question and I have no idea why his staff had never rehearsed it with him. It was like when Kennedy was running for President in 1980 and was asked why he was running. He drew a blank.

[kixot]

3. I think it was a dress rehearsal of JebCo's electioneering skills

Think about it, he would have been toast against Miami native Reno. Reno had to lose the primary, it was the only to ensure a close enough margin to where JebCo could walk off with the election without raising too many eyerows. Remeber the primary controversy with some precincts reporting negative votes or shutting down and being unavailable entirely? It's all happening right before our eyes but there aren't enough people talking to put the pieces together because the picture's so big. This is how they're getting away with it all!!

p.s. That was the same election in GA where many Republicans miraculously did better in the booth than predicted just before by the polls.

[Malikshah]

4. Sensitive topic is right.

I'm so very happy that I wasn't here. I'd have been banned in no time whatsoever.

He was a sacrificial lamb put forth by deluded ldrship in FL.

Reno might have lost against Jeb--but it would not have been the embarassment of dancing to the Republican tune that was done by pushing McBride forth.

McBride never had a chance. I honestly do not believe he felt he had a chance. Proof? What has he said since the election? What has he done since the election to deal with the problems Jeb has continued to foist upon Floridians (anyone remember "the devious plan"....it's called giving students the option to forego their final year in high school by CLEPing out of classes...or taking classes via the internet...)

It's the "no gas tax for August" BS.

Reno at least has kept up some semblance of a profile among women's political groups, etc.

[TSIAS]

5. For the record, I supported Reno

I felt she ran a very poor campaign in the primary. Running out of money in August didn't help her cause, either. The Democratic establishment appeared to turn on Reno and decided to go with the more "electable" McBride.

I did hear a few months ago that McBride suffered a heart attack. I believe he recovered well.

[Malikshah]

6. No reason for going on the record, actually :)

You make a key point, though, that the Dem Party turned its back on her. That's the key in my opinion.

She was not willing to play by their rules, I believe. Not being part of the machine hurt her.

To be honest, that's why Dean failed as will, IMHO. (who, for the record ;) I supported before he dropped out)

Yeah, I'm 0-2 -- I sure can pick em... or not.

At least with Kerry-Edwards, though, my average will go on the upswing.

[dryan]

7. My 2 cents....

I supported Janet Reno in the primary. My union endorsed her and I was very enthusiastic about her campaign. Reno's campaign did an absolutely lousy job. Case in point: her Orange County campaign manager asked a girlfriend of mine who is a Republican to host a breakfast for Reno at the Citrus Club. My husband and I attended this breakfast and was shocked that only about 30 people showed up; the cost was reasonable but come on. Except for my girlfriend I didn't recognize anyone at this breakfast which was strange. Later I talked to the political chair for the painters (who also endorsed Reno) and he didn't know anyone about the breakfast. I asked my girlfriend who she had invited and she said that except for my husband and I she didn't know that many Democrats! This wasn't my girlfriend's fault, it was the campaign's fault.

Regarding McBride: I think that he didn't have the "fire in the belly" to get elected. His winning the primary was orchestrated by people in the Democratic leadership and segments of organized labor -- especially the teachers union and building trades--who did not want Janet Reno. The final debate with Bush moderated by Tim Russert was a fiasco. I was at a viewing party right across from UCF at that debate and McBride should have put the screws to Jeb and Russert especially about the implication that McBride supported a state income tax. Maybe we learned something from all this.

[Orangepeel]

9. a lot of things happened

1) I don't think, in hindsight, that the McBride campaign was really prepared to win the primary. They were very focused and threw everything they had at it -- every last cent, every last bit of energy, every last resource. IMO, once they won, they were at a bit of a loss as to what to do next (and the DNC didn't help). It took forever to get new material, for example.

2) After the primary, the DNC took over the planning. I heard one McBride staffer from the primary say that they "sucked all the air and authority out of the room." They changed everything, didn't do a good job, and McBride wasn't strong enough as a candidate to tell them to get lost and run the campaign the way they ran the primary

3) As a concilatory move once Reno conceeded, they hired many of her old staff, who were, IMO, mostly worthless. They had just run what was arguably the worst primary campaign in history (half the time they had the woman in shopping malls talking to tourists) and had no loyalty to McBride.

4) He wasn't prepared and did a horrible job in the last debate. Although he was a lawyer, he was a paper pushing lawyer, not a litigator and just didn't do well.

5) He made a really bad choice as a running mate. I think on some level he was scared that he was really going to win and would have to govern and didn't know how. So, he picked a long time Florida legislator who would have helped him do run the state, had he won, but did nothing for his campaign. He needed someone young, exciting -- maybe a woman or minority - instead of another boring old white guy.

I know that is is a sensitive topic and there are many who are still smarting over the close primary race. It is my opinion that Janet Reno would have lost by an even bigger margin -- she was also a lousy debator, couldn't run a campaign to save her life if the primary was any example, and wouldn't have gotten a single person who voted for Jeb over McBride to vote for her instead (but of course, other people's what-if-crystal-balls might show a different vision).

I just want to point out that -- because sometimes people forget this -- in the 2002 primary (unlike the 2000 general) all the votes were counted. There were legitimate issues related to the inability of some people to vote because precincts opened late, but every precinct that Reno wanted recounted was recounted. McBride did not object to keeping polling places open late because they started late, and he did not object to recounts anywhere.

Moreover, for anyone who thinks that black box machines in South Florida gave McBride the victory, the vote totals don't bear that out. Reno did MUCH better in South Florida (and McBride did much worse) than the McBride campaign expected based on internal polls. She took a substantial portion of the vote that was expected to go to Jones, who did better than expected statewide but lousy in his own part of the state.

[JCMach1]

11. Good list J

The biggest things I saw

1. The primary controversy... not having a quick and clear victory sucked any momentum from the campaign.

2. The choice of Lt. Gov., the picking of an old unexciting white guy left the Democratic base completely unenergized...

3. The amount of money... the Republicans spent more money in the 2002 campaign than can be imagined... For example,in my race, the Repug incumbent spent over $250,000 to ward off an untried political novice... and just how much did JEBtm spend...? The repugs buried us in the last few weeks with ads.

4. It was a midterm election (there was no synergy with any sort of national picture)... if it had been 2000 (or 2004) I think McBride would have won...

[Pallas180]

10. Democratic Party in South Palm Beach wouldn't let us put signs up

for McBride. The excuse was "they just take them down" - It was incredible.

As far as I could see, they (dems in charge) never intended him to win.

I recently "understood"-suspected he was just a stalking horse. They
had no one to run - and just stuck "a body" in there.

[dryan]

12. That's incredible....

because the Chair of the DEC is a good friend of mine, Carol Ann Lohendorf.

[Pallas180]

14. No was not a woman. They sent in some guy special who ran McBride's campai

gn - and all he did was sit around with his feet up on the desk
and talk on the phone....didnt direct people, except to say No to
any suggestion that would have helped.

McBride seemed nice enough...talked a good talk...but they, whoever was really running things down here didnt seem to be working hard at
getting him in.

[DoYouEverWonder]

13. Just curious if Roger Stone

'helped' the McBride Campaign?