Could we retake the Senate?

[ButterflyBlood]

it's tough, but not impossible:

Knowles wins in Alaska (+1)
Salazar wins in Colorado (+1)
Castor wins in Florida (+1)
Isakson wins in Georgia (technically now back at status quo, but I'd call this a GOP hold)
DeMint wins in South Carolina (-1)
Bowles wins in North Carolina (-1)
Carson wins in Oklahoma (status quo)
John wins in Louisiana (status quo)
Daschle hangs on (status quo)

so then it's still 51-48-1, with Jeffords with us. And then we elect Kerry. This might cause Lincoln Chafee to cross the aisle. It's not 50-50, with Edwards casting the tiebreaker vote. The Senate is ours.

Then to work on getting Tom DeLay and his goons out of power...

[ogradda]

1. i've been watching that

looks like we got a good shot. just think.. kerry president and a democratic senate....like christmas all year :)

[onehandle]

2. Not so tough. Kerry coattails. Say it with me. nt

[rasputin1952]

3. I think we have an excellent chance of regaining the Senate...

People are pretty ticked off at bush and his evil band of minions...:)

I'd be happy to bump Bug-Boy Delay out of the House too....:D

Remote as it may seem, the House might fall as well...like i said, people are ticked, and they are waking up to the reality of the neo-con agenda....:)

[Robbien]

4. Minor differences, but yes this is interesting

A win for Castor in Florida would be a status quo (Graham's seat)
You forgot Obama in Illinois a plus one
A win for Bowles in NC would be a status quo (Edwards)
A win for Carson in OK is a plus one

A win in Louisiana doesn't look possible
And that North Carolina going to DeMint looks a little iffy

I see Dems at 49, Repubs at 50.
With a shot at Dems at 50 and Repubs at 49.

[ButterflyBlood]

5. the tally in the paranthese is a total tally

not what the seat is giving us. but yes, I did forget Obama! Probably because that seat's not considered in play even more.

But I don't see why Louisiana's not possible. The Democrats have won most of the recent elections there, and it's tough for a Republican to win a runoff.

Also DeMint is running in SOUTH Carolina, but looks like he has the lead and will probably win.

[Robbien]

6. In Louisiana

isn't Vitter getting a good percentage in the polls? Hopefully it is because there are two good contenders right now for the Democratic side.

(and yes you are right about that NC business, I miss-typed)

This is getting to be a good year for a chance at the Senate!

[ButterflyBlood]

9. he is, but he's below 50% and that's all that matters

He has a wide lead, but that's because he's the only Republican running against two Democrats. He won't top 50%, and should lose in the run off.

[Machiavelli05]

7. Yes, yes we can

If Kerry starts to pull ahead wins will probably happen in CO, Alaska, SC, NC
Wins are probably in OK, FL, LA
Win is def in IL

[quaoar]

8. No, no, no

If recent polls hold up, we will have control of the Senate 52-48 (including Jeffords).

Polls show Democrats leading in four of the five open Southern seats being vacated by incumbent Democrats. The only one we are trailing in is in Georgia. Polls show us up in Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina and Florida.

We are also leading in all three Republican open seats -- Illinois, Oklahoma and Colorado. Plus we are ahead in Alaska.

[Heath.Hunnicutt]

10. What are the issues in the swing senate races?

Is there some way we can promote a dem take-over?

[Robbien]

12. The RNC is pumping a ton of money into South Carolina

DeMint(R) thereby is running a ton of ads but most people in SC do not like DeMint's 23% national sales tax policy. But with all the favorable exposure in his ads he may pull it off. Tenenbaum(D) is the better candidate and is really well liked but has far less money and exposure.

This is the race I feel it may be possible to pull off a win.

[AnIndependentTexan]

11. Any chance we could have AirAmerica influence people there?

[PCIntern]

13. ...and for the second election in a row

here in PA, we have/had a chance to pick up a seat and just frigging blew it. Last time against Rick Santorum, we ran a guy no one had ever heard of east of the Alleghenies and came within 6 points with no money and no campaign. Unbelievable. Then, we have Hoeffel, nice guy, not much personality, against Specter, who's looking a little tired these days, and no support and the Black Clergy and Labor unions 9some) endorse Specter. I understand this because there is no question he has helped the economy of PA and gives excellent constituent service BUT you can't vote against Hatch or (fill in shithead's name here) so we're stuck with a Rethug Senate because it pays us to here in PA. Frustrating.

[JCMach1]

14. Carson (OK) would be a DEM pickup

Also, I believe Bowles is up by 1 or 2 points!

[arcos]

15. Castor would be status quo...

So would be Bowles...

and Carson would Dem pickup.

Remember Obama, a certain democratic pickup.

[in_cog_ni_to]

16. Don't forget Obama! Illinois!

He's a shoo-in! He's also replacing a repuke!

[fujiyama]

17. I'll adjust your's

This is the way I'm seeing it right now. I'll give SC to the pukes, just because the last poll I saw was a partisan one giving Tennenbaum the lead.

Knowles wins in Alaska (+1)
Salazar wins in Colorado (+1)
Castor wins in Florida (0)
Isakson wins in Georgia (0)
DeMint wins in South Carolina (-1)
Bowles wins in North Carolina (0)
Carson wins in Oklahoma (+1)
John wins in Louisiana (0)
Daschle hangs on (0)
Obama wins Illinois (+1)

We end coming out with 50-49-1...That one is Jeffords of VT...so otherwise it can be considered 51-49.

This would be great, but it'd be tough to win all of the senate races. I'm wondering if La's seat can be kept. After all there's a presidential election as well, so I'm not sure how likely they'd be to split between Bush and a dem for the senate seat. Of course they've never voted for a GOP senator - I hope it stays this way. Plus, Breaux should be of great help.

This is why it will be extremely important to get turnout as high as possible in states that would otherwise not really matter - after all no one really figured a dem has a chance in OK and AK and they don't in the presidential race.

[Zynx]

18. Four pick ups and two losses equals status quo?

Illinois, CO, OK, and AK are pick ups and we have two losses, SC and GA. How does that equal the status quo?

[Mr.Green93]

19. Kentucky is coming into play

Bunning is falling apart.

[DoYouEverWonder]

20. Even talking airhead David Brooks admitted

a couple of months ago on PBS, that he thought the Senate and the House would go to the Democrats.

I'm sure with Kerry kicking Repug butt, that the likelihood of that happening is becoming better every day.