The "Incumbent 50% Rule" will screw Bush

[geek tragedy]

http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewWeb&articleId=8694

<snip>
However, in incumbent elections, the incumbent’s percentage of the vote is a far better indicator of the state of the race than the spread. In fact, the percentage of the vote an incumbent president receives in surveys is an extraordinarily accurate predictor of the percentage he will receive on election day -- even though the survey results also include a pool of undecided voters. Hence the 50-percent rule: An incumbent who fails to poll above 50 percent is in grave jeopardy of losing his job.

But is it really possible for Kerry to close a 5-point gap, absent some fundamental change in voter preference? To find historical precedent, we must reach back in history all the way to 1996, the most recent incumbent presidential election. Bill Clinton averaged 51 percent in the final polls but received 49 percent on election day, while Bob Dole averaged 37 percent but received 41 percent -- a net shift of 6 points. Not only can Kerry close such a gap, it is extremely likely that he will.

There have been four incumbent presidential elections in the past quarter-century. If we take an average of the final surveys conducted by the three major networks and their partners, we find that in three of these the incumbent fell short of or merely matched his final poll number, while exceeding it only once, and then by just a single point (Ronald Reagan). On average, the incumbent comes in half a point below his final poll result.
<snip>

[Child_Of_Isis]

1. I don't know if it is plausible

to take a historical stance on this election. This is a whole new ball game.

[geek tragedy]

3. This is a long-term rule of polling.

Incumbents don't pick up votes on election day. They just don't.

For EV purposes, give Kerry any state where Bush is polling under 49% and consider anything with Bush at 49% too close to call.

[Child_Of_Isis]

4. Oh! Smack!

I barely skimmed the article. I thought the reference was to incumbents automatically getting a 50% vote. No way will shrub get close to 50%. Not if things are done legally. I say shrub will get high thirties to low forties. Then he will get pissed and blow us all to hell.:scared:

[cheshire]

2. Yes that and Kerry kicking his butt and Putz killing himself.

[DaveinMD]

5. I've said all along

that it will be a 2-3 point Kerry win. I just think the nation is so divided. 50-48-2. Sounds about right.

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. I thnk the spread will be wider

mostly I have met some of them mythical newly registered voters

I think we have them eight million that will vote straight demo ticket.

Remmeber nobody saw 1994 comming....

I think we are in a similar situation... and even with fixed machines... eight million will be hard to hide, even for george

[DaveinMD]

8. I hope you are right

but I still see a close election.

[fujiyama]

6. I wouldn't have believed it

until Thursday.

Kerry really proved to millions that weren't convinced that he speaks and behaves like a president. He was wise, calm, confident but not arrogant, and was also very firm. He had the facts at his fingertips. He showed the people that he would do everything he could to defend the US.

Bush meanwhile looked very immature, very annoyed, and repetetive. He blanked out on several occassions.

[Erika]

10. Bush looked like a 6th grader throwing a tantrum

when he didn't exude the deer in the headlights theme.

[Erika]

9. A factor that has to be considered is the internet

It alters perceptions via instant knowledge in a way never dreamed.

[Renew Deal]

11. Zogby has the same take.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=873

[oscar111]

12. Home for Stammering Morons received a

request to reserve a bed on Jan. 20, for a "young Master who wishes to be anonymous , and his keeper, who also wishes to remain anonymous". The telegram was simply signed Mr. R.

Any guesses ?