What states do you think this bounce will matter in?

[sampsonblk]

I say it should bring MN (10), MI (17), MD (10), NJ (15) and PA (21) back into line for Kerry. Those four are solid blue states that we need to keep. If they do go for Bush it would only be by a hair. What do you guys think?

[Touchdown]

1. Colorado. We were 1 point behind last week.

and even up for almost a month. I gotta have hope for my state.:D

No swift boat ads here, either.

[expatriot]

2. Iowa, Wisconsin

Blue states that need to come back home. Politically cognizent populations that needed to be zapped in the butt.

[BOSSHOG]

Maybe Arkansas, Maybe Louisiana

Two cents worth from an optimistic southerner. My hope is that the bush lemmings in these two states will get disenchanted (enough for a big Kerry surprise). I live in Mississippi (I'm not that optimistic).

[Erika]

3. Bush Is Toast

The swing states are swinging to Kerry.

[expatriot]

4. All Kerry has to do is stay within the margin of error in the polls....

...and if he does that the GOTV machine will be energized and in full gear and bring it home for Kerry on election day. We have a beautiful machine this year.

[sampsonblk]

5. Any hope for West Virginia??

Seems it should be a Dem state. But we aren't getting any traction there this cycle.

[The Great Escape]

9. This Poll From 9/21 Suggests There Is Some Hope...

http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9699964.htm

[ZombieNixon]

6. States we're gonna get...

I think we're quite likely to solidify PA, MN and MI. MD will go for Kerry, as will NJ as long as people turn out to vote, no worries there. I'm looking at solidifying Oregon as well. NM is barely leaning Bush as of 9/16, but I think we're back blue here now. Incidentally, FL has the highest margin in JK's favor over who won the debate, but I don't hold out much hope as long as Brother-of-Chimpy is governor. If it makes a difference in OH, that will matter a LOT.

[sampsonblk]

8. About Florida...

The best thing Kerry did was tie the war to the domestic problems like Medicare and Social Security. I wonder if that was planned. That showed a wide understanding - at least the way I saw it. That should play well in Florida, especially after those expensive hurricanes.

Bush seems to see things in a more simplified way.

[cheshire]

7. I want Ohio, Fl and Texas LOL I am a big dreamer.

[DaveinMD]

10. it will bring

the blue states solidly home and give us a small edge in OH and FL.

[robo]

11. Ohio could go blue

here in Cincinnati the repub base for Ohio it's even now and for cincy to be that way is a BIG plus for Kerry , never seen so many Dem's. stickers here in 40 years

[sampsonblk]

12. Why is Cincy so Republican??

I don't get it.

[arewenotdemo]

23. Gawd, I think I'll cry when I see Ohio go blue

living in Virginia but born there.

[fujiyama]

13. None of those states

would go for Bush, but I think the debates put them squarely in Kerry's camp. Many of them were tightening in recent weeks. Many of those that felt nervous about him earlier will come back.

The upper midwest is where Kerry may have helped himself the most - IA and WI were won by Gore by razor thin margins. MN was also quite close. Of course then there are several other swing states - NH, NV, MO, WV and the two other big prizes up for play - FL and OH. I think these states which were showing Bush to be widening his lead will tighten.

Kerry's real test will be handling the death penalty question. If he handles this well (which I'm sure he will), I think he has a very strong chance of winning.

[Emops]

15. I live in Dayton, OH,

and I drove to Toledo and back today without seeing a SINGLE Bush bumper sticker along the interstate. And about 10-12 Kerry ones, not including mine.

Ohio's looking closer.

[newyawker99]

28. Hi Emops!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Kukesa]

33. Welcome to DU, Emops.

I live in Dayton, too.

Be sure to check out our Ohio Forum for lots of good info on what's going on locally.

[NinetySix]

14. If Missouri really is the Show-Me State

then this really ought to have an effect. Bush showed his real cards for the first time I can remember on live national TV. If Missourians really are persuaded by proof, what more do they need than Bush's Thursday night performance?

[CrowNotAngelGRL]

16. I'm in TN

and I checked the electoral page and when I checked before the debate's it was really red and now it's slightly red. So hopefully we can go all the way blue. :bounce:

[sampsonblk]

18. Will Wes Clark make a difference?

Some have said he will be helpful in TN and AR.

[Sputnik]

32. I've heard on the grapevine that Clark

along with Dale Bumpers and Rodney Slater (three very popular Arkansans) will be cutting radio commercials for Kerry that will be broadcast across Arkansas this month. I believe the Arkansas Democratic Party is paying for the ads.

[JI7]

17. hopefully Ohio, Wisconsin,Pennsylvania and Florida

[Kazak]

19. Bold prediction: Kerry will carry Oklahoma...

:D

Hey, it's only a prediction, but I would SOOOooo ecstatic if that happened.

Factoid: There are approximately 135,000 registered Dems in Oklahoma to only about 75,000 registered Republicans.

[JCMach1]

26. NO, but Carson wins and Kerry loses by less than 5

:)

GO POKES!!!

[Barney Rocks]

20. I love all the

positive thinking! I am going to be cautious and say that we won't really know for a while--the debate was Thursday so we won't get decent polls until Sunday and Monday. But the state polls will lag a bit so we probably won't know for sure until a few days after that. I will say that I am confident that we did ourselves a whole lot of good!

[sampsonblk]

21. Enthusiasm makes the difference!

Gotta keep looking up. Only one month to go!

[Barney Rocks]

22. I am enthusiastic--

I just am nervous about making predictions--I want to hold off and see what happens. Hey--I didn't want to know the sex of my kids before they were born either. When you know something good is coming sometimes you don't need to know--I am the kind of person who is content just to wait with a big smile on my face.

[demzilla]

24. Debate will close at least half the gap in Arizona (10 ev)

I expect we'll see Kerry within 5 points of C-Plus Augustus when we get some polling data next week. He had been as much as 10 behind recently. If Kerry wins the next two debates, he'll create momentum that should carry him over the top in places like this. I have never seen so much Dem enthusiasm -- or Dem hard work -- and there are a lot of moderate Repugs who don't like the boy king. I would add an extra 2% to any polling data for Kerry here based on the number of new registered voters and the unprecedented Dem GOTV effort.

[JCMach1]

25. Florida... if so, it's game over for *

:)

[Awsi Dooger]

27. Every one of them

At least the ones that have television.

General public assessment of the two candidates is much more crucial than any state by state numbers. Those naturally fall in line with national preference. And Kerry accomplished more in 90 minutes on Thursday than every Democratic registration drive for the entire year.

[faithfulcitizen]

30. Exactly! -every single one! n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. If They Go For Bush By One Vote The Election Is Over....

Respectfully, what is your point?

[sampsonblk]

36. My point is . . .

that Bush needs to be way ahead in the national polls to even have a chance in these states. So with the polls leaning Kerry, these states should come back to being solid Kerry states.

[Kahuna]

31. VA and CO, maybe.

nt

[Clinton Crusader]

34. Im a dreamer but OH PA and FL

:silly:
:kick:

[otohara]

35. Colorado Because of Independents

There are almost as many independents registered as dems/thugs - the majority won't be voting for Bush, nor will past Nader voters be voting for him.