i spoke to a Dem leader here and he said they got a 7 pt bounce in the

[NMDemDist2]

internal polls last night.

When can we expect new numbers from other pollsters?

[annxburns]

1. Whoo-hoo great news!

[TheWebHead]

2. Arizona polls or national?

[NMDemDist2]

5. i got the impression it was national from back east. The staffers

were working late and my friend was in the office when they got a phone call.

I can't swear to it since I didn't ask

[saracat]

9. I talked to the people in DC last night .

There was a conference call.It was a 7 to 15 point bounce, and Az is looking very good! Won't know about Az till Monday!

[slinkerwink]

3. probably sunday or monday

[Doosh]

4. woah, that's huge

[goodwalt]

6. Great news-but

ILOVE hearing that, but I wouldn't look for support from many of the polls. Many of these bastards are shilling for the Repugs. Zogby will reflect it, and maybe Rasmussen to a more muted extent. Gallup, Mason-Dixon and Strategic Vision seem to pull their numbers out of their asses, and are just as likely to show * gaining ground.

[NMDemDist2]

7. actually that's a good thing. We don't want the Bushies to get scared

let them think they're doing OK so they don't pull an MIHOP on us

[LiberalFighter]

8. Problem is that they have their own polls and probably know

[Silverhair]

10. Monday for the first polls. Wednesday for accurate ones.

People have to have time to "digest" a debate. For a few days they talk about it to those friends that they do talk politics with. then they arrive at what they believe, which usually is pretty close to what they believed before the debate. A few, here at there, will change their minds.

So they will talk over the weekend, then Monday & Tuesday for the pollsters to work, Wednesday for the results.

Of course there will be some polls out early, but the more accurate ones will be Wednesday.

[Awsi Dooger]

11. And later than that for state polls, which tend to lag

Otherwise I like your Monday/Wednesday estimations.

Warning: we'll inevitably get some fresh weekend polls that do not catch the full debate bounce. Primarily I'll be watching/wagering on football, and hope there's no DU overreaction or depression regarding those numbers.

[sonicx]

12. sounds too big

don't debate bounces take a while to happen? Also they're internals, so there might be a slant toward us.

[BillZBubb]

22. Usually debate bounces take a while, but this was different.

It was by far the most widely watched and also one of the most one sided in history. Kerry looked like a president. Bush* looked like exactly what he is: an incompetent phony who is in way over his head.

I think the bounce on this one happens quickly.

[autorank]

13. Zogby Interactive Coming Out Tue/Wed-- I'm now a regular.

Feel like a Nielson family (of one). About every 2-3 weeks I get these emails from 'marc' at Zogby. The one I did tonight was quite elaborate. They're going to do some heavy duty crosstabs. There is some controversy over the Zogby interactives but he's so solid, I'm sure they're accurate. Don't tell 'marc' about this post (lol).

[tritsofme]

16. Interactive is solid based on what?

Certaintly not 2002.

That being said, I think polls will show the race as a dead heat with a slight Kerry edge next week.

[autorank]

19. He learns from his mistakes...plus, it's fair to say that there is...

real reason to believe that 2002 was influenced heavily by the voting machine effect, as in Republican owned companies. I'm not a tin foil guy but the CO and GA races are very suspect, particularly with the mods done to GA machines right before the election. I'm a bit more optimistic about the spread. The 64 million viewers, up from 40 million debate viewers in 2000, might be a harbinger of a big spike in voter turnout. O Happy Daze!!!

[Carla in Ca]

14. AZ, did you read the article in the Arizona Republic?

Written by Billy House. He needs more than a few letters sent to him regarding a few of his opinions. I sent mine (polite, but firm) about an hour ago.

[NMDemDist2]

21. no I didn't, is he on the opinions page? n/t

[Carla in Ca]

23. Here is the article, AZDem

<http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/1001debate-florida01-ON.html>

I sent him an email asking what 'experts' thought it was a draw.
Just thought you might be interested in reading it.

Carla

[Hello_Kitty]

15. We did a phone bank after the debate here in Phoenix

And we had people all over themselves asking what they could do for the campaign! At our district office we had twice the number of people we usually have asking for yard signs and bumper stickers. We actually RAN OUT of Kerry signs! And this is supposedly 'conservative' Arizona! Which, according to the latest Electoral poll, went from red to light pink OVERNIGHT!!

[Lexingtonian]

17. sounds kinda high

I'll gladly settle for a 3% change in the margin between the two in Kerry's favor, though.

[Eurobabe]

18. this coupled with all the real data

bush is toast...



I AM SO FRICKIN OUTTA HERE!!

[DeepModem Mom]

20. kick