This Race is Still Kerry's to Lose..... Zogby

[louis c]

Zogby's Poll still has only a 3 point lead, nationally for Bush, and is only polling at 46%-48% nationally, and in Key battleground states. (notice how close Zogby, the Democrat, and Rasmussen, the Republican, are in their polling data--louis c).

Mr. Zogby, in an article released today, gives detailed data on why bush cannot win this election, that only Kerry can lose it.

Here is the link,

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=873


Compare Zogby's (which were the most accurate in 2000) to Rasmussen's, and you can see that this race is only 2 or 3 points apart.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

[Jack_Dawson]

1. And don't forget those expatriates!!!

:toast:

[krkaufman]

2. There's a reason we're hearing about problems with ex-pat voting

The recent stories that ex-pats may not get their absentee ballots in time, and other voting difficulties for ex-pats, don't surprise me.

Ex-pats are on the frontlines of Bush's foreign policy and I'm sure will be looking to dump his arse on November 2. And so Rove must insure that the ex-pat vote is diminished in some way.

[Nocturnes]

6. Not Victoria Bitter!!!

Wrap yourself around some Toohey's Old, better yet some Cascade or maybe some Coopers

[Jack_Dawson]

13. No way, VB mate!

That's all I drank when I was in Oz. Or XXXX.

JD

:toast:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Interesting Analysis....

I'd call this race a pickem with a small advantage for *...

If it was a football game at this point I'd make AWOL a 3 1/2 point favorite...

[Chichiri]

4. A key paragraph from this article:

"From there we see a startling statistic: only 16% to 20% of undecided voters feel that the President deserves to be re-elected. Forty-percent of this relatively small group feel that it is time for someone new. They seem to have their minds made up about the President and have been given no reason to vote for Mr. Kerry. What is most important to this group? They agree with Mr. Bush on values, leadership, the war on terror, and likeability. They prefer Mr. Kerry on the economy, health care, the war, and education."

I hope Senator Kerry is aware of this fact: His goal tonight is not to convert the America-haters, but to close the deal with the vast majority of undecideds who don't like Bush.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. The Only Thing That Trumps My Dislike For Bush Is Love Of My Country (nt)

[Don Claybrook]

17. Who are these America-haters?

I wasn't aware of that demographic.

[AndyTiedye]

7. The Election is Bush's to Steal

[Stew225]

8. You're missing the obvious here, hear?

This election is most certainly Nader's to lose!

[Radical Activist]

9. Zogby does work for Republicans too

It isn't a Democratic polling group.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Really... It demeans Zogby....

The results should be the results...

[louis c]

12. Zogby has

publicly stated he is a Democrat, and Rasmussen has said he's a Republican. there is nothing wrong with that, every American has to be something.

The fact they tell you this in advance, makes me trust their data all the more.

In addition, they agree nearly identically on the numbers.

Using different methods and sources, and coming from different positions, personally, they differ very little on outcome.

As I said, Zogby came the closest in 2000 of all the National polls, Gore by 1 point.

In Rasmussen's case, he missed the election of 2000 because he failed to weight the data. He admitted that fact and has corrected that flaw.

Gallup, on the other hand, is like Bush. Even when it is proven wrong, they will not change, and they keep putting out the same crap.


If you need a polling fix, as I do, viewing Zogby and Rasmussen is the route to go, IMHO.

[papau]

10. I like the article - it is effectively a way to score tonights debate!

Did Kerry energize base with anti-Iraq war voice in a clear, bumper sticker, crisp messages of a successful campaign.

Did he bridge the likeability gap?

Did he put Bush on the defensive on the war, health care, the economy, etc. without appearing to be bullying a "leader" that Americans seem to like?

Did he connect the war in Iraq spinning out of control ---- with a squandered opportunity to pursue Osama bin Laden with full global support by alienating long-time US allies and dissipating US troop strength?

[dolstein]

14. Unfortunately, he just might succeed

Sorry, but this article isn't entirely good news. Clearly, Zogby sees a majority in the electorate that is inclined to oppose Bush. But the fact that a substantial portion of these anti-Bush voters have yet to coalesce around Kerry is quite telling.

[DemBones DemBones]

15. And Kerry has only lost once, in his first race.

Bush* lost his first race, too, so he's no super-candidate.

[Demi_Babe]

16. woohoo

[louis c]

18. kick