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An ominous pattern in the Upper Midwest (from The Nation)

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dumpster_baby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 02:53 PM
Original message
An ominous pattern in the Upper Midwest (from The Nation)
OK, Duers, you aint gonna like this one, but bitter medicine can be good for you. Let's hope this bitter pill is good for Kerry. This article from The Nation magazine (leading progressive media outlet in America) is just too good to pass up. This long article details what is happening in the Upper Midwest states of Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota. From this article, it looks like Bush is starting to do there what Kerry did to Dean in Iowa during the January primary there.
But there is still time....


Some excerpts:

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<



But Kerry is running into trouble in the Upper Midwest. No one is quite sure where he stands on the war. When he talks about wanting to protect American jobs, he does so with all the enthusiasm of the free trader he has always been. His campaign has failed to make effective use of John Edwards, whose performance in the primaries suggested that he should be popular in areas where Kerry isn't. And there's a sense that the Kerry campaign is playing defense when it needs to be mounting a more aggressive challenge to a powerful and, in many areas, personally popular President.....


To be sure, most of these concerns are echoed far beyond the cafes, union halls and farm cooperatives of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa. But there are particular problems in the Upper Midwest that have made this a difficult season for Democrats. Kerry's hunt-club style has been all wrong for a region that likes its Democratic politics served up with a populist edge. And, even where grassroots activists are ready to save Kerry from himself, they complain that they cannot get the support they need from a campaign that still has a hard time understanding the politics of rural America.....

When Bush passed through Lancaster and other communities in southwest Wisconsin in early May, he was greeted by large crowds that had been drawn out by an exceptionally aggressive advance operation that does not hesitate to suggest shuttering local schools so students can meet the President. Bush, who delights in stump campaigning in small towns, gave quick speeches and then waded into the crowds, tossing around nicknames, posing for snapshots and generally enjoying himself. Some of the pictures of the President campaigning in Lancaster were so compelling that they ended up on the front of literature being distributed throughout the state. Kerry's stop in Lancaster a few weeks later, by comparison, was a lifeless affair. He gave no speech. He just walked along a rope line for a few minutes, shook some hands and then hopped back on the bus. Even Kerry's "impromptu stops" are choreographed so precisely that the spontaneity is squeezed out of them. Perhaps worst of all, Kerry seems to be trying too hard. Almost weekly, he is photographed shooting a gun, in an attempt to counter the concerns of rural male voters about past Democratic support for gun control. But images of Kerry shooting skeet in a button-down shirt do about as much for his man-of-the-people image as those pictures of him windsurfing off Nantucket. According to Bush media strategist Mark McKinnon, "People see Kerry as a big-city Northeastern senator who has no clue about rural voters." McKinnon has told reporters that in focus-group sessions the Bush campaign organized, "We asked voters, 'How many of you can imagine George Bush filling up his own car at the gas station?' Half the respondents said they could see that happening. We asked them the same about Kerry. Not a single person thought they could see John Kerry filling up his car.....

So is Kerry finished in the Upper Midwest? Not necessarily. But he doesn't have much time. Democrats across the region have plenty of advice, starting with "Let loose." "He should just get rid of the prepared speeches and the prepared answers and speak from the heart," says Sarah Farkas. "He shouldn't stop and think about how to answer every little question. He should just answer directly, bluntly." Asks Elfi Baltes, "Why is Kerry not listing the terrible things that Bush has done in Iraq, the terrible mistakes this Administration has made?" Her friend Claire Hall, who lives on a farm outside Wabasha, adds, "People are very discouraged about the war. There are a lot of military families out here. There's a lot of National Guard families. People don't know when their husbands and sons and wives and sisters are coming home. They're worried sick. They want to hear Kerry talk about the war a lot more." Organizer Amanda Ballantyne says people need to hear more economic populism in Kerry's speeches. "I feel like people are desperate to hear Kerry talking about taking their side--on farm issues, manufacturing issues, yes, but just in general. People just want to be thrown a bone--so they're confident that their issues will be addressed. I don't think it takes that much, but it's more than they've gotten from Kerry so far."


much more here:
http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20041011&c=1&s=nichols

I tried to tell everyone that economic populism was on its way back, but no one listened. And the only economic populist candidates we had in the primary were Kucinich (who seemed determined to flaunt his weirdness before the media) and Sharpton (who has basically been proven to be a crook already).

We did have Edwards, who has disappeared so far, but why?



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David Dunham Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 02:56 PM
Response to Original message
1. Starting next week, Kerry will turn to economic populism.
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ewagner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 02:57 PM
Response to Original message
2. Kerry addressed milk prices
in Wisconsin on Monday.........played well, I think, especially when he pointed out that as a Senator from Mass he was obligated to represent the interests of Mass but as President he would represent ALL farmers.
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GreenArrow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 03:00 PM
Response to Original message
3. "Kucinich (who seemed determined to flaunt his weirdness
Edited on Wed Sep-29-04 03:11 PM by GreenArrow
before the media)"

Kucinich was before the media? When was that? I wouldn't qualify him as weird, either. But what the hey, he was unelectable.

Kerry will win these states regardless, because the alternative is too horrible to contemplate and people will realize that.



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eridani Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 07:45 PM
Response to Reply #3
11. So what is weird about Kucinich?
Being against NAFTA and outsourcing? Being in favor of universal health care? Maybe being against the war could have been considered weird back then, but what about now?
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GreenPartyVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 07:47 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. Yeah, really. I've never seen one weird thing about Dennis except that
he tells it like it is. That IS a bit odd for a politician.
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GreenArrow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 08:44 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. well, I don't think he's weird
I think this country is weird.
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 03:07 PM
Response to Original message
4. There's some good advice here
but this is what I don't get. Who gives a rip if people can imagine Bush filling up his own gas tank? Doesn't the fact he's a failed president matter more??? Besides, Bush is a damn millionaire, too. I have no idea why anyone thinks he's an average joe.
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NewYorkerfromMass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 03:09 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. Kerry will be busy making sure we can AFFORD to fill that tank
got it? Yeah, I think most people do.

Kerry is doing nothing wrong. These impressions are easily countered.
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 03:12 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. I don't necessarily blame Kerry
It's the voters who drive me nuts. :)
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StClone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 03:08 PM
Response to Original message
5. I predicted Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota
Would not go to Bush -- but it will be close.

I am calling families tonight in those states to ask for their vote. In rural Iowa I questioned some Catholics why they are leaning towards a non-Catholic and they noted Bush's stance on abortion.

When I talked with a technical College grad who had a good job with a subsidiary of John Deere Company out of Waterloo and he said Dems were all about welfare which he disagreed with.

Another retired factory worker/farmer said the gay marriage stance by Bush was important.

None mentioned the Iraq War others wouldn't give a reason why they were going with Bush and didn't care to be challenged.
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ItsMyParty Donating Member (835 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 03:27 PM
Response to Original message
8. actually, I'm sick of this shit which has been written over and over
because Kerry IS talking about the economy and how to keep jobs here. He IS talking about healthcare and how to help bring down prices. He IS talking about the war and the steps needed to fix it that Bush does not do and cannot do, etc. AND BUSH is doing none of that. He says goddamn nothing. He addresses no issue. He doesn't tell how he will help out anything. He just "stays the course", "smoke 'em out", and "I won't be happy until everyone has a job but I don't have a goddamn clue how to do that except GIVE MORE TAX BREAKS TO THE RICH". This is just all classical stupid people who won't take the time to read or listen and then pick up the media mantra of "I just don't know who he is and what he is about". They deserve 4 more years. The farms are about all gone out there already.......may corporations gobble up the rest and may John Deere start shipping those job overseas and Iowa will have nothing.
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camaro69 Donating Member (69 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 03:29 PM
Response to Original message
9. just spouting off
more of the same from the VRWC.
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dumpster_baby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. what are you saying?
that I am a member of the VRWC, or that The Nation is?

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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 11:42 PM
Response to Original message
14. Nothing new: Iowa, Minnesota, Oregon and Wisconsin
Those were obviously our four danger states this cycle, ones Rove would target based on slipping Democratic partisanship. I mentioned that more than a year ago. Kerry is a significant underdog to win all four, making Florida or Ohio a virtual must.
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TnDem Donating Member (455 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-30-04 12:33 AM
Response to Original message
15. Guns
I KNEW the first second that Kerry started lambasting the assault weapons ban he would have a hard row to hoe here in Tennessee. Why, WHY have us democrats not learned to STFU about guns is beyond me. The article is true about simply not understanding rural politics...When I mention Kerry to even partisan Democratic friends, they snicker when guns and Kerry are said in the same sentence. It's a joke to most people who understand the true use and purpose of firearms and how elite and silly John looks when he does those photo shoots with a trap shotgun. He should have not mentioned it and PRAYED that Bush* didn't either. It's not a winner guys.

The assault weapons ban was a joke and I prayed the JK would not mention it, but like a moth to a flame, he just had to like all urban Democrats just HAVE to do. By them thinking it helps them belies their lack of understanding of rural voters. I can guarantee you that issue alone will cost Kerry 1-2% in all rural states. That's OK with tried and trues, but will spell death in a 2 point race with undecideds.
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