Can you forecast the election?

[TruthIsAll]

Poll question: Can you forecast the election?

Given:
The latest state polls from ARG and Zogby, et al.

Assume:
Kerry gets 75% of the remaining undecideds/third party voters.

What is Kerry's probability of winning the election, if it were held today?

[Chichiri]

1. Is this, by any chance, something you've already worked out for yourself?

If so, when can we expect the answer?

[TruthIsAll]

3. Of course, you will get the answer on Monday evening

tia

[The Straight Story]

2. My Guess

Is that it would be a rather close race with many folks too lazy to decide and would vote * if they voted at all (people don't always like change). But I think enough Kerry people see the need to hit the polls that Kerry would win by a slight margin.

I am trying to be realistic and based on all the elections I have lived through I see Kerry beating *, but not by as much as I would like to see.

What will follow will be interesting - and I hope we keep a close eye on the whole ordeal once the election is over. We need progress, not placating people (ie, if it is close, will kerry and crew try to build a bridge to the right to keep them happy or will they burn the broken down BS bridges and make all new ones?)

When Kerry wins I damn well intended to keep an eye on him like we do *. He is, afterall, a politician :)

ABB is fine (and damn well needed IMHO) but we cannot let our ideals and values slide down and away to please a select few.

Keep up the good work DU'ers!

[Chichiri]

4. bump

[AndyTiedye]

5. 75% of the Undecided Voters? I wish, but Wishing Doesn't Make it So

> Kerry gets 75% of the remaining undecideds/third party voters.

That is a "best-case" scenario. We could get well under half of
the undecided voters, and we need to find enough Democratic votes
to win even if the undecided voters mostly break for Boosh.

How many of the undecided "voters" will even vote?
Many will stay home, or worse, vote for Boosh.

Most undecided voters have absorbed too much Faux propaganda to
be able to bring themselves to vote Democratic anymore.

There is also all the politicking coming from the pulpits
of America, nearly all of it in support of the usurper.

Kerry has no real chance to reach these undecided voters,
given the state of the media in this country.

[TruthIsAll]

6. Its not wishing. Its historical fact. The undecided go for

the challenger. There is no disputing this. Many statistical studies have proven that invariably, the challenger wins 2/3 or more.

If the undecideds were happy with Bush, they would not be undecided to begin with. They want a change.

They want to give Kerry their vote.

Kerry just has to close the deal. He will.

He's a closer.

[elperromagico]

7. Right. Bush has been losing to "Someone New" and "Generic Democrat"

for quite a while now. It's just a matter of getting all those who don't like Bush but aren't sure about Kerry to fill in the blanks.

[TruthIsAll]

11. am kick

tia

[cheshire]

8. Today, tomarrow and Nov. 2nd. Thank you very much.

[IndianaGreen]

9. Anyone that is undecided about this election is either a moron or a liar

I suspect that those that call themselves undecided are either lying, like those prospective jurors that have never heard of Jacko or OJ, or they are total morons that give ignorance a bad name.

[Barney Rocks]

10. I am not going to

make a prediction until the first debate is over. If we can really discredit Bush in the first debate we are going to win by a large margin. If we fail to really damage him, then the race will be neck and neck to the end I fear.

[AndyTiedye]

14. The Format of the 'Debates' Guarantees That Boosh Won't Get Damaged...

...unless foam starts to come out of his mouth all of a sudden or something.

Even then, they'd probably just break for a commercial real quick
and pretend it didn't happen.

[TruthIsAll]

12. You will all know the answer anon.

And I don't mean Kofi.

[TruthIsAll]

13. Last Kick. The correct answer will be announced later this EVE.

tia

[TruthIsAll]

15. And from the Election Model, the winner is.....

none of the above....it's 99.86%					

		Undecided Allocation			
To KERRY:	50%	55%	60%	67%	75%
Trial Wins	3227	4020	4544	4881	4993

PROJECTED%					
Kerry	     50.13	50.49	50.85	51.36	51.94
Bush	     49.87	49.51	49.15	48.64	48.06
					
WIN PROBABILITY%					
Kerry	    64.54	80.40	90.88	97.62	99.86 <<<
Bush	    35.46	19.60	9.12	2.38	0.14
					
ELECTORAL VOTE					
Average 	278	289	300	315	332
Median  	279	289	300	316	333
Maximum	         341	358	386	385	392
Minimum	         187	188	206	221	238
					
95% CONF. INTERVAL					
Upper Limit	323	333	343	357	372
Lower Limit	233	245	257	273	292
					
NATIONAL18 					
Vote%	    48.58	48.93	49.28	49.76	50.32
Prob%	    0.01	0.21	2.63	26.32	80.43
					
States Won	21	23	24	27	28