Rasmussen Weekly Premium Update for Or, Virg, Wisc, Ala.

[louis c]

New numbers as of 9/22

Alabama, Bush 55%-39% (continues to be expected blow-out there); Oregon, Kerry 51%-43% (Impressive Kerry gain of 5 points over last week's results); Virginia, Bush 49%-45% (A 1 point Kerry increase from last week); Wisconsin, Bush 50%-47% (A 1 point Bush increase in one week).

These results should change the Rasmussen Electoral College by taking Oregon out of the "Toss-Up" category and placing it into "Leans Kerry" and Virginia out of "Leans Bush" into "Toss-Up". We'll see.

(on edit); My new Rasmussen EV calculation would be Kerry 211 to Bush 200.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

[quaoar]

1. Alabama will be a lot closer than that

That poll shows a 16-point Bush lead. Bush won by 15 points in 2000. Black turnout should be much higher this time. Nothing else on the ballot to bring out Republican voters. Lots of anecdotal evidence of Kerry stickers in Republican neighborhoods, etc.

[Beetwasher]

2. Wisconsin Is a Must Win State For Kerry

I'm nervous about Bush's apparent leads there, but not too nervous considering poll bias and expected turnout...I'd feel better seeing a consistent Kerry lead there though...

VA is friggin' amazing, that's the election right there if Kerry can pull VA.

[hansolsen]

8. Here's why WI is problematic -- guns, God, and Gays, in that order.

Under guns, include ATV and snowmobile regulations. Candy ass environmental rules that limit where hunters can take their ATVs and Snowmobiles are causing political havoc. Hunters, and that is half the voting age population in these states, see many of these rules as impractical and annoying. This stuff is killing Dems in Minnesota and Wiscosnsin, and it all happens under the radar.

I would estimate we are losing 5% of the natural Dem base for this one reason alone. Just my opinion.

[Zynx]

9. Abortion really hurts Democrats in WI.

We would win the state huge if it wasn't for that issue.

[MoonRiver]

10. I seriously doubt that.

It doesn't hurt Kerry or any Dem more than usual there. :eyes:

[rjbny62]

3. FL - New Quinnipiac University Poll

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x12941.xml

>>>>>
September 23, 2004 - Hurricanes Blow Bush Into Lead In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds

President George W. Bush leads Democratic challenger John Kerry 49 - 41 percent, with 5 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, among Florida voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.


This reverses Kerry's 47 - 41 percent lead among registered voters in an August 12 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.


With Nader out of the race, Bush has a 48 - 43 percent lead over Kerry.
>>>>>

[MallRat]

4. Quinnipiac is bullshit. Here's why.

They haven't released their numbers on total Rep/Dem respondents, but just by looking at the regional numbers in Florida, something smells.

North/Panhandle: Bush 54, Kerry 38.
Southwest*: Bush 66, Kerry 28 (* fewer than 75 respondents. Quinnipiac itself believes these numbers are suspect)
Bay (Tampa/St. Pete's area): Bush 45, Kerry 39.
Central: Bush 47, Kerry 43.
Southeast: Kerry 45, Bush 43.

It's that last region on the list, southeastern Florida, that is completely out of whack. There is no way in hell that Kerry is leading Bush by just 2 points in a region containing Dade and Broward counties.

Don't freak.

-MR

[louis c]

7. kick

[WI_DEM]

5. well, ARG did poll for Florida over same time and has Kerry up by 1

so who are we to believe? I believe ARG, you?

[louis c]

6. Rasmussen has Kerry up by 2

in Florida as of yesterday (9/22).

I will update Premium Florida numbers for 9/23 between 5:00-6:00 PM EDT today.

[rullery]

11. Florida appears to be critical to a Kerry win.

Once again it looks like Florida holds the key this year. Recent polls that show Kerry with 270 or more electoral votes have Florida in his column. Those that show Bush in the lead have Florida going to him. As a Florida voter myself, I was disgusted at what happened to Gore in 2000. If Jeb Bush and Glenda Hood steal the election again this year, I'm not sure what I might do about it. We need to get observers in every polling place down here IMO.