What the hell is happening in Delaware?

[shockingelk]

All I hear about is how long Missouri and OH have voted for the winner of the election.

Delaware has been correctly "choosing" the winner since freakin' 1948!

Why are some bellwether areas more belle than others. I want to see a state level Delaware poll!

[Awsi Dooger]

1. That's counting Gore as the winner, of course

Delaware went to Gore by roughly 55-42, and figures similar to that again for Kerry.

[shockingelk]

2. Where are you getting figures for Kerry?

There's no state level DE polls that I'm aware of ...

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Merely a projection based on recent history

Delaware has become increasingly favorable to Democrats in presidential elections. In relation to the national popular vote average, Delaware has swung consistently and amazingly in our favor the last three cycles, probably more than any other state.

I think there is a natural ceiling at about 10-14% advantage for Democrats, and therefore Kerry, in Delaware, assuming a near dead-heat in the popular vote nationwide.

Delaware:
'88: Bush (55.88 - 43.48) = + 4.68% Republican
'92: Clinton (43.51 - 35.31) = + 2.64% Democrat
'96: Clinton (51.82 - 36.58) = + 6.71% Democrat
'00: Gore (54.96 - 41.90) = + 12.55% Democrat

[shockingelk]

4. Yes, but these are strange times

Bush has lost about 13 points of support in SD since the 2000 election.

I would just like to see a state level poll. (and there was the Perot factor in 92 and 96 ... 20.45%/10.60%)

[Awsi Dooger]

5. With no senate race, the South Dakota numbers were misleading in 2000

Democrats did not turn out and Bush won 60-37. In previous cycles South Dakota had been reliably Republican for president, but not even close to that level.

With a heated and competitive Daschle/Thune on the ballot this year plus the congressional rematch, Democrats will flood to the polls and Bush's margin will tumble by the number you suggest. I expect a 10-15% Bush win.

Not many state polls in small states that are not considered competitive. You might see some newspaper or TV station polls soon, but those are typically underfunded and not the most sophisticated polling techniques.

[shockingelk]

6. I was thinking of the wrong state anyway

But my point being that support for Jr has shifted significantly in many states - much less support in NC, SC ... and in NY, the last two polls show about a 5% increase from the 35.23% he got in 2000 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/ny_polls.html