will foreign exchange trading neophytes take the US$ even lower?

[PretzelWarrior]

is this the new "reverse" bubble? I have a couple of acquaintances who are suddenly foreign exchange traders. I'm like....WTF? What do you know about international finance, arbitrage, etc.?

Then I got to thinking about this stupendously jacked up economy of our and the tendency for its citizens to chase down the next "big thing" for money making. Some made their fortune and some lost their shirts on dot coms, real estate, and financial wizardry.

There are fundamental reasons why US$ is going down and has been for some time even before Obama. The $ is becoming less desirable in many people's minds as a reserve currency. Many banks who took in U.S. money from the treasury are holding that money increasingly in other currencies.

So as this dynamic seems to be another one of those "can't miss" money opportunities, will day traders of currency fuel that speculation of a weak dollar and become a self fulfilling prophesy?

stay tuned.

[thunder rising]

1. In that game the "day traders" are not the market movers at all.

[PretzelWarrior]

2. yeah. I figured it would take a critical mass to do much.

but if 1 guy with billions can destroy the British pound like Soros did a number of years ago, I figured a million or so rubes could amplify an already bull market on the US$.

I take your point though. commercial banks, large corporations moving money between countries, and sovereign funds would probably dwarf them even if it became the hottest thing to do since etrade in 99.

[davidpdx]

3. Been watching the dollar fall against the Korean won

It was at 1550=$1 in March of this year and now it's a 1170. A 22% drop in 7 months. The only nice thing is I get paid in Won so the drop helps me if I transfer money home.

[DrToast]

4. No

The Forex market is the largest financial market on the planet. A couple of yahoos who say an infomercial and decided to give it a shot.