VA-Gov: PPP Says Race Tightening, SUSA Does Not Concur

[ccharles000]

Two new Virginia polls out today. Let's cut 'em open while they're still fresh on the table.

Public Policy Polling (9/25-28, likely voters, 8/28-31 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 43 (42)
Bob McDonnell (R): 48 (49)
Undecided: 8 (9)
(MoE: ±4.1%)

More, from Jensen:

Deeds appears to have more room to grow. 53% of the remaining undecideds are Democrats while only 7% are Republicans. Although the fact that Deeds has not locked up those votes yet does show some degree of lukewarmness toward his campaign, those voters are still more than likely going to end up 'coming home.' <...>

Bob McDonnell's thesis is having a mixed impact on the race. Only 2% of people who say they supported him a month ago now say they're going to vote for Deeds, so the extent to which the thesis is changing people's minds is limited. But it may be playing a role in increasing Democratic turnout. In our last poll those planning to vote this year had voted for John McCain by a 49-45 margin. Now the likely electorate voted for Barack Obama by a 48-45 margin, indicating intended Democratic turnout is now pushing closer to what it was last year. The thesis may not have turned McDonnell votes into Deeds votes, but it looks like it is helping to turn non-voters into Deeds votes.

Jensen goes on to say that if the electorate looks like the one that turned out last November, "Deeds will probably pull this one out by the skin of his teeth". The idea that Deeds would need an Obama-style turnout operation to win is at least moderately disturbing, but it's nothing new. However, PPP's release was the more optimistic of the two polls released today.

SurveyUSA (9/26-28, likely voters, 9/1-3 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 41 (42)
Bob McDonnell (R): 55 (54)
Undecided: 4 (4)
(MoE: ±4%)

That's an ugly spread for Creigh, but SUSA is looking at a pretty starkly different voter universe than PPP is. PPP's sample voted for Obama over McCain by a 48-45 margin (up from 49-45 McCain in late August), while SUSA's last two polls have had 51-44 McCain samples.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5655/vagov-ppp-says-race-tightening-susa-does-not-concur

[bigdarryl]

1. hate to say this but SUSA is very reliable

SHIT!!!!! that poll is bad for Deeds

[Robbins]

2. SUSA

They had Mccain ahead In the fall In Minnesotta.They had state polls with Mccain getting support
from Blacks In the teens.During the primarys they had Hillary winning Missouri by Double Digets(Obama
won by 1) and Indiana by double digets(she barely won) and Obama barely winning NC(he won by a huge
margain) during the primary.This Is enough to point out they can be wrong.almost every other pollster
Including RAS has It tightening In Virginia.Now while Mcdonnell may win It will not be a Double
diget win.Of course Survey USA own poll suggests they are oversmapling Republicans since those polled
said they voted for Mccain and Obama carried Virginia.