Is this a definitive sign that the Whitehouse has taken a hardline position on PO?

[grantcart]

Last week Sen. Baucus had a mini presser where he looked very dejected and said that they would mark up the bill Monday or Tuesday and from the responses indicated that he didn't expect to get a single Republican vote.

Now babylonsister reports in this thread that both Snowe and Collins are not supporting the bill and will not accept the pubic option. http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=6539910&mesg_id=6539910

Given the high profile talks she had with the President my reading is that their was no agreement on the trigger (conceivably the Whitehouse insisted that she bring atleast 5-6 other Senators in exchange for a trigger).

It appears that the Whitehouse has in the final innings of the game taken a firmer and firmer approach on the Public Option. That there are no Republican Senators that are going to vote for the bill it seems as if only two options will exist, but both options require the public option in order to keep the progressive caucus on board in the House.

Scenario One - The Democratic Caucus holds firm on maintaining caucus discipline and no Senator crosses the line to join the filibuster. The vote is taken and a few Senators vote against the bill.

Scenario Two - The Democrats use the reconciliation process to pass the bill with 51 votes.

[emulatorloo]

1. Good analysis -- let's add Harkin's comments to the mix

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/58147-harkin-public-option-wont-be-a-deal-breaker

Harkin: Public option won't be a deal breaker
By Eric Zimmermann - 09/10/09 01:15 PM ET
The new chairman of the Senate HELP Committee said a public option won't be deal breaker for moderate Democrats.

Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa), who just replaced Ted Kennedy as head of the committee, said his centrist colleagues might accept a bill with a public option even if they aren't crazy about it.

"Some of my colleagues may not like a public option, but they like all the other things and I don't think they'll vote against the bill just because it has the public option in it," Harkin said on MSNBC.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

2. I see what you did there.

I think that you're right. Dems seems to be wavering less and less. I would expect the opposite if they plan to jettison it. Scenario one is what they are shooting for I'd say.

[Cha]

3. We're going to see..bookmark

this and see how it lines up whenever it's passed.

[Cant trust em]

4. This is what I suspected to come from the Snowe negotiations

If she could bring along a few republicans, then there's something to talk about. If not, we'll just go it alone.

[asjr]

5. Snowe and Collins are Republicans first--

patriots come last.

[yodermon]

6. IN your Scenario One - can it even pass Cloture even if All Dem Senators vote Aye?

We only have 59 now. :( Including Lieberman, who would probably(?) join a filibuster.

[Clio the Leo]

7. I didn't think September the 9th would EVER get here.....

.... and now that it has, October 15th (the expected date of reconciliation) seems like an eternity away.

[dccrossman]

8. Here's hoping

:kick:

[ProSense]

9. Well, if you're John Aravosis it means

Olympia Snowe is playing Obama like a fiddle

:rofl:

[demwing]

10. Assuming that Snowe really knows Obama's weakness

"She knows Obama is genetically incapable of turning away from the shiny penny of bipartisanship."

This sounds like a bit of hardline editorializing on behalf of Aravosis.

[ProSense]

11. It's all editorializing.

Aravosis is prone to taking bitterness to extremes.

[Tom Rinaldo]

12. That's a positive, and plausible, read on where things may now stand

In the end the public option may survive only because there aren't even a handful of Republican Senators who can provide even a minimal fig leaf of bipartisan cover by voting for an Obama plan that compromises it away. No one will ever call the final vote on health care reform remotely bi-partisan, if somehow Snowe and (maybe) one other Republican backs it. The stimulus plan got 3 Republican votes (one of them now a former Republican) and Obama got zilch credit for passing a bi-partisan bill that time. Unless Obama can get more Republican votes than the stimulus plan got he will not be able to claim a bi-partisan outcome on health care reform.

I think you may be right, if Snowe can't deliver 5 Republican votes for a compromise that most Democrats will accept, the political equation should shift back toward keeping the Public Option intact.

[ProSense]

13. "Unless Obama can get more Republican votes than the stimulus plan got he will not be able to claim

a bi-partisan outcome on health care reform."

It wasn't about claiming a bipartisan outcome, it was about passing the bill.

Not a single House Republican voted for the stimulus.

[burning rain]

14. A specific public option proposal may or may not be worth taking a hard line on.

A 5% public option as the president outlined before congress, severely restricted in terms of enrollment, would by design have negligible power to compete with private insurance companies. Such a token public option would clearly be nothing but a bone thrown to liberals, and a scrawny bone at that. One can make a case that insurance reform without public option is worth passing, but let's be candid and not pretend that a farcical puny public option should weigh significantly in the debate.

[BzaDem]

15. Scenario One doesn't make sense. Even if all Democrats hold firm, they still are at 59.

Reconciliation doesn't make much sense either, at least as far as a public option is concerned. It has been reported that you need a public option tied to Medicare rates to cut costs enough to get it through reconciliation. There weren't enough votes for such a public option in the house before the recess. Blue dogs almost killed the bill in committee because it was tied to Medicare rates; they ended up forcing the rates to be negotiated. But if that bill passes the house (which s very doubtful now), it would not satisfy the Byrd rule for reconciliation because negotiated rates don't do enough to cut costs to make it deficit neutral according to the CBO.

[grantcart]

16. with Kennedy's replacement they will have 60 in the caucus

The final vote will be in 6 weeks.

MA will move quickly to change the law to replace the Senate.

[BzaDem]

17. Ah, I wasn't taking into account MA.

Hopefully we will have a replacement.

[SpartanDem]

18. Are you sure about MA?

from what I've read the local legislators don't seem that enthusiastic about the idea.

[grantcart]

19. aren't enthusiastic but they aren't going to get the seat go empty