9/20 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 253 EV, WIN PROB 25%

[TruthIsAll]

Good news. Kerry has gained in the popular vote the last two days.
His expected EV and win probability rose today. Expect more of the same as new state polls come in.

Kerry trails by an average of TWO points in the National polls.

The Corporate pollsters (Gallup/CNN, Time, Newsweek, etc.) have him down 4 points. His trend is DOWN with the media whores.

But the INDEPENDENT pollsters (IBD,Zogby, Harris, ARG, PEW, etc) have it EVEN. His trend is UP with the independents.

Why should we expect anything else? We know the whores game. They will keep Kerry down until the last week, hoping to discourage Dems from voting and also to pave the way for Diebold.

It won't work. We lost our naivete after the 2000 selection.

The graphs tell the story:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

Date Poll Kerry Bush
Corporate
824 LAT 46 49
825 NBC 45 47
829 ABC 49 48
902 TIME 42 50
916 CBS 42 50
908 FOX 45 47
910 AP 46 51
910 NWK 45 50
916 CNN 44 52

Avg 44.89 49.33


Independent
722 QPAC 46 43
901 ARG 48 46
906 ECON 45 46
912 ICR 45 49
913 IBD 46 44
913 HAR 48 47
914 DemC 48 49
914 PEW 46 47
919 ZOG 44 47

AVG 46.22 46.44

[bagnana]

1. win probability 25%?

That doesn't exactly make my day.

[0rganism]

2. Did you really think this would be easy?

Keep in mind that TIA has decided to count the polls which are admittedly oversampling republicans.