Sotomayor will be the first of @ least 4 to 6 judges that Obama will ...

[Botany]

.... get to pick. And you know what the right can do? Nothing .... not a damn thing

Stevens is 89

Tony the fixer Scalia is 73 and fat

Kennedy is 73

Thomas is 61 and acts like he is 99

Ginsburg is 76 w/ health problems

Bryer is 70

Alito is 59

Roberts is 54

[Arkana]

1. I don't know about 4-6, but I'm betting at least one of two.

Sotomayor was a huge victory for him.

[David__77]

3. I hope Ginsberg and Stevens retire soon.

We need to ensure they replaced with progressives.

[Botany]

5. 2 is a done deal Stevens & Ginsburg

If Obama gets a second term then 6 will be very likely.

I don't know if Thomas has long to go or not ..... he acts like a very old man.

[Nyquil Man]

2. I want to see the battle if one of the conservative bloc resigns.

The Republicans fought pretty hard over replacing a center-left justice with another center-left justice. I can't imagine what they'd do if the next nominee is replacing somebody like Scalia.

Even if Kennedy resigned, an Obama nominee would point to a pretty important change in SCOTUS.

But, as you say, they'll be pretty ineffective regardless.

[Wapsie B]

4. I wonder if Stevens hasn't been waiting for a Democratic Administration

before stepping down? It would be nice to get someone in there even a bit younger than Sotomayor.

[SoCalDem]

7. Perhaps a few could be persuaded to retire while their replacements

could be chosen by an intelligent president:)

[Wapsie B]

8. Exactly. Ginsberg too and at least one of the repugs on the bench.

Now that would make things really interesting.

[maxsolomon]

6. "health problems" is putting it mildly

she has cancer.

[customerserviceguy]

9. Sorry to burst your bubble

but Stevens and Ginsberg are the only ones for sure, IF there is a second Obama term. The others will stay on life support until a Repuke president is in the White House, no matter what.

Scalia's the oldest of the troglodytes, and he's been inspired by Stevens to stay on the Court as long as he can draw breath through a respirator.

[jaysunb]

11. Actually, Roberts has some health issues.

He's a candidate for a sudden episode.
Just saying.....

[customerserviceguy]

12. OK, it could happen

but it's not terribly likely.

We have to have a second Obama term to really have a chance of doing anything other than replacing old progressives with young progressives. And there's a case hurtling towards the Supreme Court about a Constitutional right to equal marriage that is going to fall on five deaf sets of ears real soon...

[Botany]

14. the odds are that one of the three Bryer, Kennedy, and Scalia

will be gone in Obama's first term ...... Stevens & Ginsburg are for sures.

That would give Obama 4 counting Sotomayor.

Now C. Thomas sleeping all the time and never asking a question will either lengthen his stay
on the court or he might just up and quit .... he does not look happy at all.

[customerserviceguy]

15. Breyer already votes with us, for the most part

You're dreaming if you think Kennedy and Scalia would even look at a DNR order to sign for their doctors.

Wingnuts have been waiting for Stevens to die for years, he's still hanging in there. I figure that if any of the conservative Justices were feeling like they might expire during the next eight years, they would have given Bushco a chance to replace them.

[Botany]

17. you are right on Breyer .... he has been a good judge

but the odds are against Scalia, Kennedy, and Breyer all making it through Obama's first term are 50 - 50 @ best.



I wish Tony many more cheesebugers.

I also want to see if we can start getting rid of all those nasty judges Reagan, HW, and W put on the Fed. Bench too.

[bertman]

10. What scares me to death is the possibility that President Obama might reach across the aisle

for his next nominee. In the name of bi-partisanship and all.

[NYC Liberal]

26. Well, Sotomayor WAS the "bipartisan" nominee

She was appointed by both Bush and Clinton. I think the next one will be a pureblood liberal (Sotomayor is a liberal but not a "Scalia-type" liberal), now that he's gotten one easy confirmation done.

[orleans]

28. what makes you think he didn't do that this time?

i didn't know she was a *liberal*

[bertman]

30. Well, she wasn't a conservative in the mold of Roberts, Scalia, Thomas, Alito, etc,

by a long shot.

With all the howling about Justice Sotomayor being an activist, liberal justice, there's going to be unbelievable pressure to go right on the next one.

Of course, it makes no sense, but that's the way these Republican/fascist asshats work. And, unfortunately, the Democratic/corporatist asshats usually fold and say "Yessir, whatever we can do to make this a bi-partisan effort. Yessir."

[Fla Dem]

13. Well depending on how congressional and senate elections go

they can make it very difficult to get left leaning nominees through.

[Botany]

16. As of now it is looking really good for us

http://www.gallup.com/poll/122003/Political-Party-Affiliation-States-Blue-Red-Far.aspx

only 4 states* are still solid red and Alabama is now just leaning red. Obama gets health care
through and the economy picks up (still where are the jobs?) 2010 will be like 06 and 08.

The repugs fighting Sotomayor has helped them w/ the Hispanic vote either.




* Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, and Alaska.

[tritsofme]

18. Obama voted against cloture on Alito.

Republicans believe this will allow them to filibuster any Obama SCOTUS appointee that would be a game changer.

It is possible that there will be no further retirements in Obama's first. It has been said that Stevens and Ginsberg truly enjoy their roles on the court, I wouldn't be surprised to see Stevens die on the bench.

But as others have said in this thread, I have to believe that Scalia and Thomas will cling to dear life as long as Obama is in office.

[Sebastian Doyle]

19. I don't want to sound like Pat Robertson, but.....

I'm really hoping we get rid of Scalia and Thomas in the near future. Stevens & Ginsburg will probably go one way or the other, but that isn't going to do a thing to improve the balance of the court. It's Fat Tony and Clarence the Clown who are the keys to real change on the court.

[Politicalboi]

20. Lets hope

These appointments should be only 25 years, not life.

[ShadowLiberal]

21. He won't get 6 judges, 4 is likely the limit

Seriously, he's not getting 6 judges.

Ginsburg & Stevens are likely to step down in the next 7 years certainly, they probably will. Stevens probably just wants to serve one or two more years, so he makes history as the oldest supreme court judge ever. Ginsburg will probably decide to retire in a year or two as well. The rest however, seem unlikely to retire at the moment.

Alito & Roberts are certainly not retiring, and probably not Thomas either, and they aren't likely to die of old age in the next 8 years either.

Bryer will probably stick around for a while still, he may possibly consider retiring in tn say 2014/2015, the middle of Obama's second term (assuming he wins reelction), but for the moment probably won't.

Scalia's the only ultra conservative who Obama has any hope of maybe replacing, if he gets health issues.

I could see Kennedy maybe retiring if he thought the conditions were right for a more moderate judge to take his place, like if the GOP controlled the senate late into Obama's presidency (since they aren't taking it back anytime soon), or democrats had a much smaller numbers advantage, making it much harder for a strong liberal judge to replace him.

[dsc]

24. He has a decent shot of becoming the longest serving justice

and I think he might well want that feather. He is in amazing health and seems to enjoy being on the court.

[Blasphemer]

22. My guess is three

Stevens and Ginsburg plus one of either Kennedy or Scalia. We're stuck with Thomas for awhile I suspect.

[totodeinhere]

23. If it looks like there is any chance that Obama might not be reelected, then

all of the right wing judges will try to stay put for now. Stevens and Ginsburg might retire right away, but their replacements won't tilt the ideological balance on the court.

[politicasista]

25. Actually

Clarence Thomas is the one that's fat. As in fat head.

Hope President Obama can pick somebody that's really black (aka AA). It's nice to know that he has some good picking to do.

[burning rain]

27. Wishful thinking, I'm afraid.

Alito, Roberts, Scalia, and Thomas are hard-core right-wingers who would not consider retiring under a Democrat under any circumstances. Kennedy is usually a recognizably human mainstream conservative, but still a dogged Republican partisan judging by his foul decision in Bush v. Gore, so I'd be very surprised if he decided to let a Democrat choose his replacement, either.

[saltpoint]

29. Be nice to have fewer far-Rightwing votes on the High Court.

Can't say what will happen without a crystal ball, and my crystal ball's in the shop, having been cracked in a dust-up in a recent health care town hall mtg.

But across levels, there'll be several Obama judiciary appointments and the more he makes the better off we are.

Let's not even think about Dubya's judiciary appointments. It would only ruin all our weekends.