"The Obama Recovery" - GDP fell 1% in second quarter, a better than expected performance

[jefferson_dem]

Recession eased in second quarter, data show
Recession ‘came in like a lion’ but may be going ‘out like a lamb’
BREAKING NEWS
The Associated Press
updated 8:35 a.m. ET, Fri., July 31, 2009

WASHINGTON - The U.S. economy may no longer be in free-fall.

The government's first estimate of second-quarter activity shows the economy shrank at a better-than-expected 1 percent pace from April though June.

The Commerce Department data mark a vast improvement from the 5.9 percent annualized drop recorded over the prior six months — the weakest showing in 50 years.

"The recession kind of came in like a lion and is going out like a lamb," said economist Ken Mayland of ClearView Economics.

Less drastic spending cuts by businesses, a resumption of spending by the federal government and an improved trade picture factor into the better-than-expected0 performance. Consumers, though, probably pulled back a bit. Rising unemployment, shrunken nest eggs and lower home values have weighed down their spending.

President Barack Obama said Thursday that while he thinks economic activity contracted in the spring, Friday's report also should show that the United States has "stepped away from the precipice."

<SNIP>

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32233514/ns/business-stocks_and_economy?ocid=twitter

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. Ten seconds to the thousand posts arguing that this is really bad news

Prepare for the term "jobless recovery" to appear often.

[Turbineguy]

2. Everybody knows

it's actually the Bush Economic recovery, following the Rooseveldt/Truman/Kennedy/Johnson/Carter/Clinton/Obama recession.

[wicket]

4. heh

:D

[Lochloosa]

7. +1

[Zynx]

3. Compared to the rate of deterioration when he came into office, this is a fast improvement.

GDP had its worst quarter in the first quarter, according to the revised data. Now we are poised to start growing again.

[mwb970]

5. I actually put some of my retirement money back into the stock market..

I have had it in a low-interest (like zero) money market fund since the fall of '07. Now I'm ready for it to grow again.

[Frustratedlady]

10. I've been thinking about doing the same, but am afraid to take a chance.

What turned you around?

I see more people shopping and they don't seem to be as "down" as they were. Their grocery purchases are more in line with the basics, rather than junk foods, which is good.

We had a garage sale last weekend, and my granddaughter sold a ton of children's clothing. A ton! The only items left were the winter outfits. People were elated to find so many clothes in such good condition and were buying them by the armful.

I just have a feeling that people are loosening their grip on money.

[mwb970]

37. Part of it was the signs you speak of.

Combined with the various news articles about "green shoots" and "bottoming out". Mostly though it was just the pattern of the stock market itself. Once the DOW moved back up through 9100 I figured it was on fairly solid ground. (I wish I had figured that out at 7300 like BREMPRO below.)

I'm hoping the uptick isn't just a temporary one.

[BREMPRO]

13. i've done that also.. and regained much of what i lost last year.

When things started to go south about a year ago, I saw it coming by paying close attention to the markets and world events. I moved retirement money from stocks to money market and other more stable and conservative financial sectors. I lost about 10% by the time the market bottomed out around 6500, much better than most people i've talked to (averaging losses of 30-50%). I moved back in when the Dow hit 7300 and have regained much of what I lost. I'm 48 so i'm invested for the relatively long term and plan to leave around 50% of my portfolio in stocks until i'm around 60. It's a gamble to try to time the market, but when it's clear that the economy is getting drastically bad or hitting bottom and gradually improving, and you have a time frame to take and avoid some risk, I've found it wise to pay attention and move your money. I'm not a big fan of the way we have our retirement system set up now requiring everyone to be an expert on investing and so many people because of a lack of knowledge or access to good unbiased advise (unlike that "mad money" dope, or "professional" money managers), losing half of their retirement in 6 months. We all lose in the long run. We all really do have to educate ourselves- it's not rocket science- understand what you are invested in, know your tolerance for risk, that everything that goes up will eventually go down(and down/up), move out of stocks as you get closer to retirement, avoid following the irrational exuberance herd, and closely watch world events to protect your retirement funds.

[alcibiades_mystery]

6. Could it be, perhaps, maybe, just an off-chance, possibly,

that just maybe Tim Geithner kinda sorta perhaps maybe possibly knows what the fuck he's doing? Anathema, I know, but still. Kinda? Maybe?

:shrug:

[GOTV]

29. Too early to tell ....

... lots of borrowed money is being pumped into the economy and so you'd expect to see some improvement in the short term no matter what.

Consider on a personal scale, an unemployed guy. His personal economy is in peril. He's eating Raman noodles every day and he never goes out. He can't afford better right now. Then suppose he borrows a bunch of money. Next month you see him eating out and going to movies. His personal economy is much improved. Can we suppose that the money he borrowed has really helped him? Was borrowing that money wise?

We can't really tell just by looking at the short term changes in his lifestyle.

If the only thing he's doing with that money is eating better and going out and he's made no other substantive changes we know that soon the money will run out, he'll be back to Raman noodles and now things are worse because he has this debt on top of the other problems. If that happens we know he did not choose wisely.

If however, after the money's run out we find he's still going out, maybe to even better restaurants, buying a new car and going to a job everyday, then we know he did something right. Maybe he took some training to learn a new skill or had professional help on his resume and a new suit.

The question is: will the economy continue to improve after the stimulus funds have been spent?

People make this mistake with Reagan all the time. They point at the growth under Reagan (The largest peace time growth in history until Clinton blew him out of the water) and use that as evidence that the Republicans were great with the economy. What they miss is Reagan's "growth" was entirely debt fueled. He borrowed like crazy, left the debt to our kids and of course all that money went into people's pockets who then spent it on building the economy.

Has the Obama economic team spent wisely? We can argue it different ways and we do. But we'll really know in a few years. Did the stimulus do enough so that the economy got some traction and started to grow on its own or does each year call for a new infusion of borrowed cash to keep things from crashing and burning. If it's the former, the Obama team spent wisely. If it's the latter, they did not.

[alcibiades_mystery]

39. Yes, obviously

I wish people would apply the same logic of "Too Early to Tell" when they're bashing it.

Cheers.

[unblock]

8. sorry to nit-pick, but please edit the headline, gdp fell at a 1% ANNUAL rate

it did NOT fall 1% in the second quarter alone.

i know all the media usually get this wrong but there's a big difference between 1% in a quarter and a 1% annual rate for a quarter.

tia!

[HamdenRice]

43. Extremely important nit pick. It means the economy contracted by about 1/12 of 1% per month

which ain't bad compared to freefall.

[Rebellious Republican]

9. I am surprised this thread has so many positive recommends.

Two things, its factual and backs up his policies. Never mind that it actually presents President Obama in a positive light. Seems to be taboo to post something like this these days around here . ;-)

K&R

[AllentownJake]

11. BS

There are plenty of positive, negative and neutral threads about the President's policies.

People see what they want to see.

[jefferson_dem]

12. Not BS.

You proudly announce that there are "plenty" of negative threads about Obama's policies. Indeed there are.

And, in my opinion, that's kind of a shame ... on a board called "the Democratic Underground".

[AllentownJake]

14. It is Democratic Underground

Not Obama Underground last time I checked.

Its a big party and some policies are not going to make everyone happy.

[jefferson_dem]

15. Cute.

But totally unoriginal.

Is the President no longer a Democrat?

Hey, you might be comfortable with all the Obama-bashing here. Personally, I get more than enough from the sleazeballs in the MSM.

[AllentownJake]

16. I'm comfortable with differences of opinions nt

[mkultra]

22. Im not

I don't come here to hear republican rhetoric even when labeled a simple "difference of opinion"
That is the actual point of this board. Its a haven from the daily rigors of swimming in a vast ocean of ignorance.
If your saying that i must be accepting of stupidity, well, then at some point i tell you that you must get off the fence.

[AllentownJake]

27. Single Payer, asking for FDR style economics, etc

isn't republican rhetoric...

[mkultra]

33. Claiming Obama went back on his word over SP, etc

is.



Don't act like you haven't seen it here.

[jefferson_dem]

25. Different opinions?

Uh huh.

A couple days ago, Limpballs said Obama "has already failed". Awesome! Let's post his twisted perspective here, as a thought piece. The big fat idiot is merely offering a different opinion, ya know. Who are we to criticize that?

[AllentownJake]

26. Yes I'm sure people who are critical of the health plan, the economic policies, etc

from the left love Rush and plan to vote for Palin in 2012

Get over your fucking self.

[jefferson_dem]

31. Easy now. You said we should expect plenty of posts that are critical of the President.

It's all about...being able to tolerate different opinions.

While some of the supposed "lefties" that post here may claim to be arch enemies of Rush and Palin, they share the same deplorable ends and means.

Get over your fucking self yourself...

EDIT: I don't think anybody has a problem with constructive criticsm and policy debate, in accordance with DU rules.

[mkultra]

34. +1, its the destructive rhetoric that they are trying to defend though

[GOTV]

28. Maybe if we called it "Happy Talk Underground" ....

... the members would know what opinion they're supposed to have.

[mkultra]

35. or maybe even name after the party it supports, that might help too.

[Rebellious Republican]

17. Yeah right, so can you tell me why so many threads are being

unrecommended around here for no apparent reason? I can at least provide you with some links to back up my BS statements. Here are just a couple from this morning. I have been watching this BS happening with to much regularity.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x8562617

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x8562567


Pfft, I guess I have not been around DU long enough to see what has been happening since its inception. Oh thats right, I have been around almost since its inception.

You have your opinion and I have mine. Guess you, like many others have in the past, see REPUBLICAN in my pseudonym and attack for no reason. I will have you know that I am a YELLOW DAWG DEM, and made my conversion years ago and never looked back. I keep the Pseudonym just to piss freeper trolls off and to convince others that may be lurking and thinking about making the transition that it is OK to do so.

I have been flamed by the best, do some research before you Jump and call BS on someone around here. :eyes:

Rebellious Republican

[AllentownJake]

18. two of your threads got unrecs

:shrug:

Sometimes I get 50+ recs sometimes I get 3 recs sometimes I get < recs

People are fickle

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=8562651&mesg_id=8562651

I figured I'd get < on this but it is still in the positive.

:shrug:

[Rebellious Republican]

19. Guess again, you still are not very thorough in your research....

One thread is mine, the second one was posted by flpoljunkie. I just replied to flpoljunkie. Someone posted a single comment and an unrecomend, I just responded to his comment, the same had just happened to my thread, which was not negative,offensive, flame baiting, or defamatory. So why go to the trouble of unrecommending a post if it is none of the above? I did notice a lot of hits however, and all those just read them and moved on, yeah I guess people are just fickle huh. :shrug:

[AllentownJake]

20. It comes with unreccommend

:shrug:

I get 50 recs sometimes I get < recs other times.

sometimes threads I think are awesome get < recs and sometimes threads I think are not that great get 50+ recs

:shrug:

[Clio the Leo]

21. I'm sorry, I dont have time to read this, MSNBC has breaking news that....

... the President's poll numbers are down a half of a point. :)

They're all like, "whoohoo!!!! Love over here!!! No, dont read that article!!! Over here!!!"

[jefferson_dem]

23. Chart -

[WI_DEM]

24. Let's hope that the recovery now takes hold

[totodeinhere]

30. I won't be satisfied until unemployment starts to go down.

And as far as I can tell there is no sign of that yet. In fact, most sources say that we can expect it to continue to go up for a while yet.

[Baltoman991]

32. And history

shows that emplotment is the slowest to recover in bad economic times so I'm not going to be basing my opinion on that alone.

And before anyone says I don't give a crap about those unemployed at the moment allow me to state that I'm one of those who is currently unemployed and not having a whole lot of luck finding work.

[mkultra]

41. you have my sympathies

and my hopes for employment soon. Keep plugging away at it.

[mkultra]

36. Businesses wont hire until the economy shows them a need

unemployment is a lagging indicator.
If you understand the dynamics you would probably understand why people feel positively about the future.

[alcibiades_mystery]

38. Somebody on this board recently was upset about being called a "lagging indicator"

It's astounding. Needless to say, as a logical sequence that would be understood by a seven year old, an increase in factory orders would have to precede a drop in unemployment, which is - of course - all that "lagging indicator" means. But this person was like "DON'T CALL ME A LAGGING INDICATOR!!!" It was unbelievable.

[mkultra]

40. thats funny. Maybe we should start refering to the negative nannies as "lagging indicators"

Their view of the circumstances seems to lag somewhat behind.

[girl gone mad]

42. Unemployment is actually not a lagging indicator in consumer driven recessions.

It tends to be a leading indicator in this circumstance. Also, certain unemployment data always acts as a leading indicator. That data is still pointing south right now.

[Life Long Dem]

44. Where are the doom and gloomers now?

What about the Rush Limpballs? Are you watching? :rofl: