Friday evening release of CBO Estimate Scores Confirms Deficit Neutrality of Health Reform Bill

[FrenchieCat]

The media and the GOP are pushing a preliminary CBO report put out on Thursday
that states that the Health Care Reform bill by the house is unsustainable.

HOWEVER, a CBO estimate report was released last night (Friday),
which says the opposite.


CBO Scores Confirms Deficit Neutrality of Health Reform Bill

Published on Jul 18, 2009 - 7:29:28 AM


Washington, D.C. July 17, 2009 - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released estimates this evening confirming for the first time that H.R. 3200, America's Affordable Health Choices Act, is deficit neutral over the 10-year budget window - and even produces a $6 billion surplus. CBO estimated more than $550 billion in gross Medicare and Medicaid savings. More importantly, the bill includes a comprehensive array of delivery reforms to set the stage for lowering the future growth in health care costs.

Net Medicare and Medicaid savings of $465 billion, coupled with the $583 billion revenue package reported today by the House Committee on Ways and Means, fully finance the previously estimated $1.042 trillion cost of reform, which will provide affordable health care coverage for 97% of Americans.

"This fulfills the strong commitment of the President and House leadership to enact health reform on a deficit-neutral basis," said Chairman Henry A. Waxman, Chairman Charles B. Rangel, and Chairman George Miller. "The reforms included in this legislation will help control health care costs and expand access to quality, affordable coverage to all Americans in a fiscally-responsible manner."

The estimates also cover important reinvestments in Medicare and Medicaid, including phasing in the closing of the "donut" hole in the Medicare drug benefit. The bill's long-term reform of Medicare's physician fee schedule to eliminate the potential 21 percent cut in fees, and put payments on a sustainable basis for the future, will cost about $245 billion. Those costs, however, are not included in the net calculations above, as they will be absorbed under the upcoming statutory "pay go" legislation that is pending in the House.
http://yubanet.com/usa/CBO-Scores-Confirms-Deficit-Neutrality-of-Health-Reform-Bill.php


Here are the estimates from the CBO - http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/104xx/doc10464/hr3200.pdf

[jenmito]

1. K&R. THIS message has to get out-especially to Dem. Senators who are freaking out about

the last report. They need to see this and grow spines.

[FrenchieCat]

2. I watched CNN's Money Report this morning,

and they were still touting the earlier Thursday CBO report.

They didn't mention this Friday evening release at all.

So I guess that the "games" are "on" still.

Also Harry and Louise are lining up behind it as well....
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x339256

[jenmito]

4. I saw that, too, along with their constant touting of Obama's supposed

slip in his approval rating to 57% in their "poll of polls" while his approval is 60% or better in at least 3 popular polls right now.

[FrenchieCat]

9. CNN has done a lot of damage to this country.....

and that appears to be continuing. :(

[jenmito]

10. I agree...

"The most trusted name in news" is unworthy of the title. They're perceived as being truly down the middle while MSNBC is supposedly liberal and Faux is conservative. But they're pretty much like Faux.

[rucky]

3. K&R and a five-dollar bet...

that the opponents will still cite the early report.

[alsame]

5. Well, well, well, it looks like the President is

right - AGAIN.

I'm guessing this won't get a lot of media attention. He'd better talk this up during the presser on Wed and his Ohio visit on Thursday.

[Phx_Dem]

6. I'm sure David Gregory will report this new information on Meet the Press.

And John King too!

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

[FrenchieCat]

11. You mean David will kiss a politician's ass to get him to appear Gregory?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=post&forum=389&topic_id=6093197&mesg_id=6093197

[defendandprotect]

7. K&R ... by the way we need more than 24 hours to rec . . . too many threads getting lost -- !!!

[Parker CA]

8. Big fat K&R!!!!!

[bvar22]

12. Lets look at this carfully before starting a parade.

The legislation would establish a mandate to have health insurance, expand
eligibility for Medicaid, and establish new health insurance exchanges through
which some people could purchase subsidized coverage. The options available in
the insurance exchange would include private health insurance plans as well as a
public plan that would be administered by the Secretary of Health and Human
Services. The specifications would also require payments of penalties by uninsured
individuals, firms that did not provide qualified health insurance, and other firms
whose employees would receive subsidized coverage through the exchanges. The
plan would also provide tax credits to small employers that contribute toward the
cost of health insurance for their workers."

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/104xx/doc10464/hr3200.pdf

There is also this:

"Under the main health bills being debated in Congress, many people with job-based insurance could find it difficult to impossible to switch to health plans on a new insurance exchange, even if the plans there were cheaper or offered better coverage. The restrictions extend to any government-run plan, which would be offered on the exchange.

<snip>

But critics argue that the rules run counter to suggestions from health care reform advocates that an overhaul could provide people with a broader choice of insurance options. The rules, they say, could be especially unfair to some lower-income workers who are enrolled in costly job-based insurance. Also, they argue, the restrictions would hurt the proposed public plan by limiting enrollment.

<snip>

One result, he said, is that any public plan would be substantially smaller than what many backers are envisioning. That would reduce the public plan's power to compete with private insurers and hold down costs, he said. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that nine million to 10 million people would enroll in the public plan by 2019.

http://www.newjerseynewsroom.com/healthquest/for-many-workers-insurance-choices-may-be-limited-after-health-care-overhaul

ONLY 9 - 10 Million in the Public Plan by 2010, and yet MANDATED Insurance.
Something smells really bad here.
10 Million is not near enough to "Keep the Insurance Corps honest", nor is it enough to "negotiate" lower prices from Big Pharm.

Only 10 Million in the Public Plan out of a nation of 330 Million with MANDATED coverage after 10 years?


The newjerseynewsroom article linked above is a good read. They explain some of the Real World consequences of the current bill. I am highly dubious of their quote form the CBO about the expected 10 Million enrollment in the Public Plan by 2019, and am looking for verification. If it is true, then the Public Option as currently written does NOT qualify as "Reform", but DOES qualify as a HUGE GIFT to the For Profit Health Insurance Industry.

[FrenchieCat]

13. I am posting in reference to the "proposed" bill's estimate,

and you are demanding single payer once again.

You are in another room dealing with an issue that is not going to happen.

I am in the room where reality lives.

You weren't going to get exactly what you wanted....
not even close.

10 Million in a brand new public plan by 2010 (which is in six months from now) is damn good.....
and that number will only grow.

As for those who already get health benefits via their employer,
sorry if this legislation isn't there to benefit them most of all.
My understanding in reference to them is that the employers will be able to provide
more choices if they choose to, and the cost of such will drop based on a whole bunch of variables,
from modernizing health record keeping to the health industry upholding their committement
as was made to this administration.

In otherwords, it ain't a perfect bill, but it sure in the hell is reform as I see it.

Plus, there is no final bill yet....and I'm in doubt that the mandate will remain...
so all of your huffing and puffing is, as stated above, being done in another room,
one in which reform is only what you determine should be done, as opposed to what
can be done considering the onslaught of media, GOP, naysayers, and the likes.

[ipaint]

18. 10 million by 2019, years from now

A strong public plan needs open enrollment tens of millions of people in order to negotiate costs and remain competitive.
Any further improvement to whatever ends up being reform will have to be negotiated with for profit insurance co's from here on in. They hate the public option.

There are no goals of real health care cost reduction because that would require regulating the profits of the medical industry including for profit hospitals, labs, insurance and drugs. Not only are we not regulating that we are forcing a weak public option to pay market prices set by CEO's with billion dollar salaries and stock options.

The insurance corps know they are facing a migration of over 100 million boomers onto medicare in the coming years and if a new pool of captive consumers are not found they will not be able to enjoy the luxuries their 31% overhead and profit provide them. That's where you and 45 million others come in.

And you get all that at the cost of 8 and a half million uninsured faceless americans thrown under the bus as worthless. If you think a limping along toothless public option in 2019 is going to absorb them you truly are living in the land of ponies and rainbows.

If settling for less is what the "single payer is impossible" crowd is dead set on accepting at least be honest.

[FrenchieCat]

20. You know that this is a CBO report, and really doesn't necessarily reflect

what will happen, and considering that this is based on a not yet finalized bill, right?

I already know that an ideal single payer health insurance plan would be well....Ideal.
However, I don't let "Ideal" get in the way of the true reality. Selling a public option
has already been difficult...but to expect the majority of American people to trust a
100% administered Government plan after the many years of misinformation is not to want
to realize that "Ideal" is indeed impossible based on the hurdles placed in our way
since the days of Truman.

If you are saying that settling for something less than "only single payer will do" means that one isn't honest, I disagree. Those who are dishonest are those who fail to acknowledge that due to the political environment (which includes millions in media propaganda and money in our elections), Single Payer would be DOA, and again, we'd have to wait 16 more years if not more before getting anything. To be honest, I can't afford to wait that long.

[ipaint]

22. I'm not saying that.

Take single payer out completely and look at what's being proposed. It is a half measure, easily taken away down the road, with a failure mechanism built in by the insurance industry that neuters any leverage a public option could provide.

If any politician all the way up to the presidency was truly trying to give us health care reform single payer would have been on the table, not to try and pass, but to introduce and educate the general public to it's advantages, swing the public option towards the left to make it stronger and lay the groundwork with cbo estimates, studies from other countries with successful programs, etc so when this half reform does begin to fail the right choice, the one that will work has been introduced. Whatever we end up with most people will link public option with government health insurance, when it fails the conclusion will be government insurance failed. People will not understand it never had a chance after the damage is done.

We are telling people this is health care reform, relief from the abuse of insurance companies, yet the regulations have no teeth, the costs are slightly cheaper for those who have ins., for many it will be more expensive, the choice of a public option is severely limited and the insurance companies are still in charge raking in exorbitant profits.

I can see how some people think this will open the doors to a single payer approach down the road but if the public option stays as weak as it is today that won't happen.

We are at war- with the insurance companies and as always they will have the guns, we will have the rocks.

[ipaint]

23. As far as not being able to wait any longer

I'm sure those 8 and half million uninsured feel exactly as you do. Tough luck for them.

[bvar22]

25. You're way off.

All that stuff you are imagining I am saying is pure Red Herring.
Then you inject a bunch of stuff about Single Payer.
I didn't mention Single Payer. YOU did.

Perfection is NOT the enemy of the good.
BAD is the enemy of the good, and if the Public Option only covers 10 Million after 10 years, that is really, really BAD, especially if they are going to pull $500Billion from Medicare to pay for it.

I am strongly urging deep caution.
The Democratic Party does NOT have a good track record of protecting the interests of the Working Class over the last 30 years.
Lets read ALL the fine print before starting the parade.

I KNOW there will be crowds of Party Partisans cheering for anything the politicians call a "Public Option". They were here cheering on the disaster of the Wall Street Bailout too. They were wrong then, and anyone who argues against caution now is wrong too.

READ ALL THE FINE PRINT.
We won't have this chance again.

[bvar22]

19. Excuse my typo, but that is 10 Million by 2019 !

Who cares if a FAILED Public Option is budget neutral.

I am NOT arguing for Single Payer or nothing.
I AM saying we (Working Americans) need to be very watchful, especially given the track record of our Congress and the "Centrists" Democrats.

Read ALL the fine print, or we could get another one of these!

NOW we have Your Children’s Money too !!!
And there is not a fucking thing you can do about it!
Now THIS is “Bi-Partisanship” !
Better get used to it!!
Hahahahahahahahaha!

[FrenchieCat]

21. There is nothing funny about this conversation.

If the media forces are already using the wrong report to attempt to fail any health care reform,
what makes you think that we are in for anything other than a war. What are you doing about that?

[No DUplicitous DUpe]

14. Kick!

Very interesting. Make sure to keep kicked.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

15. I saw this. On Yahoo, they only issued a one line correction on their already bogus story.

[FrenchieCat]

16. Of course, I'm not surprised.

[Jake Stillow]

27. Do you have the link to the Yahoo story? n/t

[Cha]

17. REc'd and

let's get the news out because the corporatemedia won't.

[jefferson_dem]

24. Speaker Pelosi has linked to this on her blog.

http://speaker.house.gov/blog/?p=1872

[Jake Stillow]

26. I don't get it

Help me undersand please.

Even if Medicare costs are eventually exempted from being offset right away (pay-go), wouldn't those cuts have to be offset later anyway? Shouldn't we treat this as an increase in the deficit?

[FrenchieCat]

28. I imagine that other costs would come down though.....

which is why it is called Deficit "neutral"...meaning some cost go up, but others come down.