NJ-Gov: Corzine Still in Deep Hole; SSP Moves Race to "Lean R"

[ccharles000]

Quinnipiac University (7/8-12, likely voters, 6/3-8 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 41 (40)
Chris Christie (R): 53 (50)
Undecided: 6 (9)
(MoE: ±2.5%)

Optimists like to point out that New Jersey seems to hate all its politicians, but hates Republicans a little bit more. This would explain why the Garden State GOP hasn't won a single statewide race since 1997, and hasn't won by more than a single percentage point since 1985. So it's certainly tempting to think that Jon Corzine might sweat this one out like so many of his Democratic predecessors have.

But this race simply feels different. In particular, the economy - and the deep unhappiness it engenders - weighs more heavily than at almost any time in recent or even distant memory. The traditional unemployment rate is almost 9% in Jersey. Broader measures like the U6 are much worse. Painful budget cuts have been made. And Corzine has also stumbled on his own, like with his series of failed plans involving the always-sensitive issue of turnpike tolls. Like it or not - fair or not - the folks in power get blamed when things go to hell. If you're a guy like Jon Corzine, who didn't start off with high approvals and goodwill to burn, it puts you in a very precarious spot.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5276/njgov-corzine-still-in-deep-hole-ssp-moves-race-to-lean-r

[no_hypocrisy]

1. Corzine gets blamed for fixing problems from the past.

Christine Todd Whitman left a huge deficit (from spending and borrowing). Florio and McGrievey did nothing to reduce the deficit. Corzine wouldn't buy more bonds and had to raise capital, e.g., raise taxes, fees, tolls. These measures improve the state's bond ratings, etc. to encourage investment. But the day of reckoning came and the governor was responsible in a measured program. Unfortunately for him, he lacked communication with the taxpayers and residents of NJ who saw him aloof, taking away their money while business left the state (in revenge for increased taxes) and jobs were lost. And since Corzine hasn't "sufficiently" reduced the budget and stopped job loss and business flight, there probably will be a backlash at the polls.

And if Christie is elected, businesses will stay or return -- and the deficit will grow again, leaving that problem to a future governor (dem, of course) and the cycle will begin again.

[bedazzled]

2. republicans are like locusts - they destroy everything

then the dems come in and have to raise
taxes to try and fix it. the voters get
mad and vote the republicans in again.

it's been that way for years, in national
politics, too.

my friends HATES corzine. course, she
voted for bush, so she's not high on the
food chain, i guess.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

3. This makes me very sad. I really like Corzine. My father lives in Jersey and Corzine

has done good things for the state.

[bigdarryl]

6. He's a disaster!!!!! plain and simple

[tabbycat31]

4. hopefully tomorrow will change that

as the President is stumping for him (and I'm still waiting to hear on my tickets).

Chris Christie is a batshit crazy Karl Rove protege who must be stopped at all costs. If you want to help out the Democratic party this year, we need all hands on deck.

Corzine's not perfect, and I'll be the first to admit that. Has he made some painful budget moves? Without a doubt, but he got the job done. Keep in mind that NJ did pass a budget this year while many states still have yet to.

[Beacool]

5. Yep, my neighbor is not doing so hot.

Saw him in town and wished him well, but he's been going down in the polls like a lead balloon.

:(