How can New Jersey be so close!?

[Doomsayer13]

This state went for gore 56-40! I'm astounded that polls show Bush ahead... it's mind boggling!

Any NJ DUer's care to elaborate?

[unblock]

1. california would be close, too, if you 60% of your sample was republican

[politicat]

2. cell phones? Bad sampling?

I'm really thinking this might be a truman dewey sort of year....

Don't forget that one.... and don't let the courts handle this one, either.

Pcat

[dennis4868]

3. in a week....

the polls will be back to normal...seriously....The convention fooled alot of people and now they are realizng it and are focusing on Iraq and how bad things are there now.

[tilsammans]

4. In NJ Freeper Country . . .

. . . where I live, I'm seeing Bush/Cheney lawn signs. None at all for Kerry/Edwards. And Bush/Cheney bumper stickers, very few for Kerry/Edwards.

That's what I would expect here.

BUT I am seeing FAR FEWER B/C signs and stickers than I thought I would at this point. NOT that this necessarily translates into tons of votes for Kerry, but it is somewhat encouraging.

And it's so NICE not to see GOP crap plastered everywhere I look!

[Tangledog]

9. Morris County?

That's the only part of New Jersey I'd think of as having Freeper potential. It's always been a strangely nasty place. I lived in Ocean County (median age: died 2 years ago) for years, Pukey but only Freep in pockets.

I don't really know Sussex or Salem.

[tilsammans]

13. Yup. Morris County.

Morris County is soooooooooooo GOP, it's disgusting. :puke:

People just naturally ASSUME I'm one of THEM because I live here. I am ofen very closeted about my political preferences. If by chance I find another Dem/liberal here (it's very rare), I am pleasantly surprised.

[ShadowCabinet]

5. I don't think the SUSA poll is accurate.

That's the only poll I see where Bush is ahead. NJ is solidly a blue state. I really can't see where Bush is ahead given how much NJ has lost in outsourced technology jobs, the loss of 2 auto assembly plant and the telecom bubble burst(i.e Lucent and AT&T).

I travel daily through Middlesex and Mercer counties and I see far more Kerry/Edwards supporters and their bumper stickers that for the Pres. That's a very informal survey.

If NJ were really in play, you would see much more of an effort in campaigning here and it's just not happening.

[featherman]

6. It's not

NJ will vote DEM by double figures. Just another "bad sample" poll. There are a lot out there. Just keep your eye in history and voter trends and only use the polls marginally.

[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

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[Doomsayer13]

8. jeez, no need to be rude

polls have shown the state to be consistently close, if anything. I think I have good reason to be concerned.

On the plus side, Virginia is shown as close consistently, and that, by all logic, should be a deep red state.

[featherman]

10. polls haven't shown NJ close "consistently"

mostly double digit leads with a couple "outliers'

[fujiyama]

11. .

[pstokely]

12. * ad's from Philly

nt