I think there is an 80% chance Ahmadinejad will stay in power

[Perky]

First of all, in a few more days I would expect the internal furor to subside and if it doesn't the regime will proably intitute a bloody chrackdown as they have in the past.

Secondly, even as is goes through a legal process, nothing short of a full blown recount will prove there was tampering and such a process will take some time and will be slowed as part of a cooling off process. The outcome I suspect is in some doubt because while the opposition was surging, there was conclusive evidence that they had pulled ahead. Reversing the election result would doubtlessly cause huge upheaval which would mean another wave of protests and it would be vary difficilt to pull it back together,

The only two way for this to be resolved is for Khameni to void the election and call for a new one. Wich he could do...but I would suspect that Ahmadinejad would not be allowed to run (in fact, he might be prosecuted. jailed, and maybe beheaded to quell his supporters anger)

The second way is for Khameni to let the election stand while whitewashing the results and just let the anger run its course.

The latter is far more probable.

If the results stand.... Obama has some tough choices to make. Having Ahmadinejad in power could delegitimize the regime and we could be at a standstill until he is replaced next election. There will be those on the right and left that demand that we do not deal with the regime at all.

The Neocons will want to go to war and the left will view it as a North Korea or a Burma

It will be tough for OBama to proceed towards a path of reconciliation, but I bet he steams ahead.

[Thrill]

1. 100%

[mkultra]

2. i totally disagree

more like 79%

[bstender]

3. what evidence?

what evidence are you using to conclude that Ahmenajad didn't win by a landslide?

i think it's a psy-op contrived to create the illusion in the US that there is no negotiating partner and thus, war is the only option.

[grantcart]

4. It all depends on the Supreme Leader

There is no great love for Ahmadinejad, they are simply afraid that Moussavi has gotten too powerful already.


If they can cut a deal with Moussavi then Ahmadinejad is history.


They have a very easy out. They can simply say the vote is unclear but that the two leading candidates qualified for a runoff election and have their normal runoff.


Moussavie wins the runoff, everyone loves the Supreme Leader and they keep the lid on.


The larger, more important issue is that most of the country is young and wants to live a free and urban life style.


Once you take them off the farm its hard to get them back into the Burkha (sic).