DU Economists

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Are we ever going to get out of this recession?

[PM Martin]

1. Not this year.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Will Unemployment Hit Double Digits?

I think the post-war peak was 10.8%.

This sucks.

[uppityperson]

5. I think unemployment is there many places, just not Unemployment numbers.

I am considering unemployed as people who don't have income from work, or are very under employed, vs those officially on Unemployment status from state Unemployment numbers.

This sucks.

[grantcart]

7. Yes unemployment could reach 12% - currently 10% in California

[uppityperson]

3. Eventually, but it is going to be a difficult time for a while.

Things change. Things always change. It won't be depression forever, or high riding forever. We are in for a hard time for a while.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I Am Getting So Beat Up By This Economy

I haven't been without work since 1986 but work is slow I might as well be without it.

[uppityperson]

8. I just went back to work as a nurse vs self employed but am concerned

If medicare funding for long term facilities gets cut, so will jobs of providers. There are lots of us "former" nurses coming out of the woodwork. I am grateful to my parents for encouraging me to become a nurse way back when. But I am concerned about it all.

I am minimally self employed health care provider now since people can't afford deductibles or co-pays if they have insurance. However, I do barter, need to go pick up a load of firewood this weekend, got manure for my garden already but could use more. Have a source for local grass fed beef too, and halibut.

It does really suck though. Hard times again, I'm preparing to support several independent family members if I need to, with nursing. If possible.

[grantcart]

6. Not until property prices hit bottom and post atleast a small return

Until that happens the credit system of the US will remain primarily frozen as the balance sheets of lending institutions will remain suspect and even banks with positive balances will remain fearful of additional real estate losses that will turn their assets into mush.

I think that is why you are going to see more and more movement by the administration to stem the mortgage crises like the announcement yesterday.

The stimulus package and other stimulative effects (like the very low price of gas) will not have a real impact until property prices return.

On the positive side there is still a lot of cash in the system and as the stock market, treasury bonds and other investment options look hopeless it makes real estate look more and more promising. On the negative side banks continue to dump foreclosed properties undermining property values. If we could get the foreclosure rate way down the property market will have a chance to firm up.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I Am A Magazine Publisher Whose Projects Are Real Estate Oriented

I am trying to pivot into health care because it is one of the few sectors with a pulse.

[grantcart]

10. good luck - how about energy related business?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. I Publish Magazines, Directories And Guides That Are Advertising Revenue Driven

~

[Yavin4]

11. The World's Economy Is Unwinding Trillions of Dollars of Bad Debts

Which is also causing even more bad debts along the way. For example, housing market goes bust, new housing construction goes bust, then auto industry goes bust, and they take down their suppliers, etc. etc. etc.

This whole process will take at least 6 years from its start which was December 2007 to complete. Optimisitcally, we're looking at 2013 for a turnaround. Realistically, it will be more like 2015 until we get back to normal.

With that said, there's always the possibility of the unknown, Republicans re-take power, another war, another even bigger crisis some where else.

My advice to you is to downsize your life to the point where you can survive 12-18 months without income. Move to a cheaper residence or live with roommates or get boarders. Buy used cars. Go out less. Take less expensive vacations or no vacations at all.

Whatever you have to do to survive, do it.

[Xolodno]

13. Not this year.

But predicting and economic upturn or downturn is a lot like weather forecasting.

Unfortunately the science is based on...well, people and their propensity to be rational.

The real question is, when do we hit bottom?

As home properties continue to depress, someone somewhere is going to eventually realize, there is a HUGE bargain out there and all they need to do is raise the capital. And they may get together with others pool their capital. And of course they will do this without the banks. And they will begin to see a return in the form of rental income (people do need to live somewhere). Then when the banks see this, they are going to want a piece of that pie and will start lending.

OR....

The Banks implement a Rent/Lease to Own program where the potential buyer has the option to buy...say seven years later when their credit is repaired.

Or a combination of both.

But of course, any option just mentioned needs one thing in particular...people need to be working and earning an income. Unfortunately, government is a rather slow behemoth when it comes to being an economic catalyst so its going to take some time.

I know where I live they will be putting in solar plants as much as the transmission lines can take and they also intend to put a stop for high speed rail...and a new toll road to connect two cities. I live in a rural area and homes are going for 50-80k (undervalued if you ask me when you consider all the development planned)

However, not everyone is going to benefit from the recent legislation due to their location and economic make up and it is possible for some towns to do what they did during the Great Depression...essentially board up.

And of course the Phd's a few years after this will argue weather this is a recession or depression.

Physiocrat economics be damned! When will people learn from history, just because the circumstances of a severe trough are different doesn't mean the catalyst (physiocrat economics)still isn't responsible.

[TexasObserver]

14. Yes, but it will be five years before we have fully recovered.

This year will be bad. It will likely start to get somewhat better by end of the year. Next year we will begin to have an ascertainable recovery, and by 2011, life will begin to look normal again.

If we are lucky, we'll be just about where we need to be by the election of 2012, but we won't see boom times again until 2013 or beyond.

This is my opinion. Yours may be different.

[Zynx]

16. Historically, all you need to do to be re-elected is just stop the bad times.

When Reagan was re-elected, unemployment was higher than when he passed his tax cuts.

[Frank Booth]

15. I ain't no economist, but

yes. I think we'll be seeing a noticeable upswing in less than a year's time. If nothing else, the stock market has to stop hemmoraging eventually -- the p/e ratio of the S&P 500 is already significantly less than it's been in a long time.

[obiwan]

17. Relax. Good things take time. Lots of time.

[TeamJordan23]

18. I think things will start turning around slowly in 2010. But CNBC/Fox News are going to try to drag

this throughout the Obama administration.