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The Reagan Recession (1981-1982)

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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-15-09 03:26 PM
Original message
The Reagan Recession (1981-1982)
Edited on Sun Feb-15-09 03:31 PM by Kurt_and_Hunter
The recession of 1981-1982 had almost nothing to do with Reagan's tax cuts.

The low inflation that has followed the 1981-1982 recession had almost nothing to do with Reagan's tax cuts.

The recession of 1981-1982 was intentionally induced by one man: Paul Volker. It was meant to wring inflation out of the system and it worked better than anyone could have expected.

The fact that Reagan was elected in 1980 was more coincidence than causation. Ronald Reagan had almost nothing to do with the down-side or the up-side. It was mostly a matter of monetary policy.

(Sorry, I'm just tired of hearing people on either side blame Reagan for the '82 recession or credit him with defeating inflation. He didn't have much to do with either. The fact that his tax cuts led to big deficits, which are/were presumed to be inflationary, while inflation stayed low-key suggests how inconsequential the Reagan tax cuts were either way.)
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-15-09 03:28 PM
Response to Original message
1. Reagan IS Responsible for This Depression--He Laid Its Foundation
and Shrub put the shingles on the roof. Of course, they had lots of help--some of it unintentional from little people, most of it criminally intentional from institutions and the owners and operators of same...
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leftofthedial Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-15-09 03:29 PM
Response to Original message
2. I'm tired of people spelling it "Reagan."
We all know the correct spelling is "ronnie raygun."
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Cant trust em Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-15-09 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. I clicked on some Republican group on Facebook to see what they are up to.
A lot of the people on there professed their love of Ronald Regan/Reggan or some other misspelling. If they're going to worship the guy shouldn't they be able to spell his name right?
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leftofthedial Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-15-09 03:37 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. repukes? spell?
nah. that would be elitist.
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mitchum Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-15-09 05:17 PM
Response to Reply #6
11. It's similar to "God" or "Yahweh" or "Jehovah" or "Moloch"...
still the same mythical god despite the various spellings
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ShortnFiery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-15-09 03:30 PM
Response to Original message
3. Didn't we emerge from Saint Ronnie's recession with an RECORD DEBT? Yet, back then and in W's time,
Debt = DoublePlusGood? Now Debt = DoublePluse Evil?

If nothing else, the GOP is predictable.


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Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-15-09 03:34 PM
Response to Original message
4. I blame that idiot for starting with the free lunch bullshit
where taxes can be reduced but magically services, infrastructure development and maintenance, military spending, etc. can remain unchanged or even vastly increased (e.g. military spending) without incurring stupidly large deficits during the up cycles of the economy. It is the rejection of Keynesian budgeting in favor of Free Lunch budgeting that I blame on Reagan and the Ignoramus Party and its policies since 1980.
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ShortnFiery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-15-09 03:35 PM
Response to Original message
5. Yes, we can thank Saint Reagan for setting the GOP trend of Skyrocketing National Debt!


The gross national debt compared to GDP (how rich we are) reached its lowest level since 1931 as Reagan took office in 1981.

It skyrocketed for 12 years through Bush senior.

Clinton reversed it at a peak of 67%.

Bush junior crossed that line on Sept. 22 and hit 69% on Sept 30. That's the highest it's been since 1955.
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avaistheone1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-15-09 05:15 PM
Response to Reply #5
10. Your chart is quit an indictment of the Reagan and Bush years.
They certainly killed the U.S. economy no doubt about it.

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seasat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-15-09 05:00 PM
Response to Original message
8. Reagan gets a lot of credit for stuff he never did.
Carter and Volcker did more to change our economy than Reagan/Greenspan some for better and some for worse. The real blame for the 81/82 recession lies with the monetary policies under Nixon where they thought that low prime rates would keep the good times a-rollin'. Amazing how Repub history repeats itself.

Reagan also raised taxes at least as much if not more than he cut them. It appeared early in his term that the magic revenue fairy was not going to sprinkle magic dust on his tax cuts resulting in higher government revenues. The Reaganites panicked and started raising taxes. They raised corporate taxes by cutting loopholes (higher levels than under Clinton and both Bushes). They had the largest tax increase on the most number of working people when they raised SS taxes to cover the short fall in social security. They raised all sorts of government user fees in stealth tax increases. The capital gains tax was initially cut then allowed to increase under Reagan. Reagan even cut corporate subsidies such as those for small refineries (one of the real reasons refinery capacity diminished...not environmental regulations). Yet, despite the higher effective corporate tax rates and increases in capital gains taxes, the economy did okay, disproving the Repub back-of-the-napkin theory.

Reagan even gets credit for deregulation but most of that started under Carter. Carter pushed through deregulation of transportation, energy, and communications. IMHO, Carter went too far with some of his deregulation. Carter's deregulation push was one of the issues that caused him to lose support from the Democratic congress.

Pretty much Reagan showed up and repeated his lines but in reality didn't accomplish much except for gutting environmental regulations, padding the pockets of defense contractors, creating chaos in other countries, and ballooning budget deficits.
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avaistheone1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-15-09 05:08 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. Reagan changed alot of tax policy and social policy for the worse - the MUCH worse.
Edited on Sun Feb-15-09 05:12 PM by avaistheone1
What we are seeing is a collapse in our economy that is 25 years in the making. The real blame for our predicament is the entire "government is the enemy" Republican philosophy which was championed by Ronald Reagan and followed to the nth degree by George Bush. The reality is that the financial meltdown we are seeing now is the final verdict on that bankrupt philosophy. The verdict is in -- the Reagan revolution was a stunning failure, and we are now harvesting the fruits of that failure.

Our current problems are the long term result of the destruction of the middle class due to a massive redistribution of wealth which Reagan set in motion. Reagan ran through Congress huge cuts in the top marginal tax rates and simultaneously ran up a huge budget deficit with his love of military contract spending. Having slashed taxes on the wealthy, it was left to the middle class to pay off Reagan's budget deficit. Simultaneously, the government had no money to invest in the type of domestic spending that would have paid dividends for decades to come -- improving teacher pay (which would have recruited better teachers and paid long term dividends in a better educated population), developing our infrastructure (mass transit anyone?), and moving toward some type of universal health care system are just a few examples. If we hadn't gone down the path of trickle down economics, working people wouldn't have collapsed financially so far so fast -- leaving so many foreclosures -- at the first sign of trouble in the economy. That's what started these dominos falling.

It's the final verdict on the complete failure of the Republican philosophy of weak government and unbridled greed by the wealthy. Basically the flip side of the new deal -- which brought growth and prosperity to the middle class for 60 years until the effects of the Reagan revolution starting unraveling the benefits brought by FDR. By the way, don't bother blaming Clinton, whose government did well in spite of what Reagan started (and what Bush finished). The effects of these policies take 20-25 years to fully realize. The kids that are getting a good education when they are 10 are doing well or not 25 years later. The new deal that was pushed through in the 30's brought huge growth in the middle class in the 50's and onward, until the Reagan/Bush policies eventually took their toll by gutting the middle class.

The Republicans fought like hell against the new deal policies that created that middle class - social security, medicare, workers' benefits, college aid. Fortunately, FDR was able to push those social contract policies through and the long-term result was the creation of a middle class our country had never seen before - a large class of people that owned homes, had money to send their kids to college, had comfortable retirements. But now, the Republicans have had the keys to the government in the form of holding the White House for 20 out of the past 28 years, and it's their appointees that have dominated the federal courts, the Treasury Department, the Justice Department, the FCC, the FDA etc. since 1980.

What we are seeing now -- the bankruptcy of the entire working class and much of the middle class (most middle income people are now in the red on the balance sheet unless they have had substantial inheritance) -- has been a 20-25 year process, in the same way the new deal didn't create a large middle class overnight. Reagan famously claimed that government was the problem.

He started in motion two things - 1) tax policies (massive reduction in the top marginal rates) which pushed us toward a huge redistribution in wealth toward the top 5 percent, and 2) massive deregulation, which included gutting antitrust enforcement, which over time led to industry consolidation and the type of monopoly/oligarchy capitalism we enjoyed 100 years ago, when the country had a small aristocracy of wealthy people that owned everything and a huge class of peasants that owned nothing. Again, if you disagree with my basic theory, give me examples from the rest of the world. Let's hear about the prosperous, "government stay out of the way" countries and contrast them with the social democracies of Europe, of Canada, of Australia and New Zealand, of Israel. Be specific.

What caused this was a massive concentration of wealth over 25 years starting with Reagan. The top 1% have 90% of all of the wealth in the United States. True fact. That didn't happen overnight. It started 30 years ago. The "middle class" simply doesn't have enough money to live a middle class lifestyle anymore and that's behind the collapse of the real estate market. It's a much bigger issue than just some subprime loans in recent years.

During the Republican Eisenhower administration of the 50's, when the U.S. saw unprecedented growth, the top marginal tax rate was 91%. That applied to wage income in excess of about $3.5 million dollars per year in todays dollars. It only applied to huge amounts of income - people like Brad Pitt and Lebron James, and Warren Buffett and the like. We needed the money to send World War II vets to college and build our transportation system and it worked.

Those tax rates on the rich were slashed over time, dramatically by Reagan, to where it is now about 38%. During the same time, we cut capital gains taxes (again a tax cut for the rich), and estate taxes (same), and capped the income subject to social security tax (also a tax cut for the wealthy), and we saw a growth in offshore tax loopholes (for the wealthy). All of that has gutted our treasury, and destroyed the middle class.

We are going to have to go back to the policies of the 40's and 50's if we want to rebuild the middle class, who are bankrupt and increasingly unable to afford to educate their children.

Americans love the myth of Reagan. He was an actor who created a character that Americans adore. But his policies gutted the middle class over time. Americans need to get their heads out of the clouds, stop living in fantasy, and face the reality that because of these policies we are now a country with a tiny aristocracy that owns everything and a huge peasant class that owns nothing. Americans' pride was what allowed this to happen. It is time we wake up!

http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-110451


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dtotire Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-15-09 05:21 PM
Response to Original message
12. Good Post
Reagan also tripled defense spending, from about $100 million annually, to about $300 million annually. This was his version of fiscal stimulus, which raised the GDP, and also increased tax revenue. Republicans today say that this was due to his tax cuts, which they want to do now.
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question everything Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-16-09 01:18 PM
Response to Original message
13. How did Volker do this?
by raising interest rates? I don't remember, except that in 1982 we purchased a home at a 14% mortgage rate! In 1983 we considered ourselves lucky to purchase another home (after a job related move) at 12%..

We were just talking about it at home, trying to figure out what created the 1982 recession.

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ItNerd4life Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-16-09 01:50 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. I was trying to remember also
I remember during the Carter years Interest Rates were 18% and inflation was at 10%.

I also remember inflation coming down to 6% in 83 or 84 (don't remember) but interest rates were alot slower at coming down.

In 85 we paid 10% for 30 year mortgage.
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Yavin4 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-16-09 02:04 PM
Response to Original message
15. Tax Cuts Acheive One Thing and One Thing Only
Deprive the private sector of revenue for spending and investment, thereby increasing public borrowing.

They do not spur economic growth.

They do not create jobs.

What creates economic growth is new job creation. What creates new job creation is new demand for goods and services. What creates new demand for goods and services is new technological innovation. What creates new technological innovation is primarily government research and development.

Case in point. WWII, the nuclear arms race, the space race, and other defense needs created government spending on building of computers. This investment lead to the technological innovation, the personal computer. The PC created demand for goods(omputers, keyboards, hardware) and services (programmers,DBAs, trainers, etc.). This lead to NEW job growth, and that's how we pulled out of the 1981-82 recession.


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